Tag: Warmer Weather

A Break from the Deep Freeze

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After enduring a cold end to December, Southern Manitoba is in store for a break from the deep freeze as milder Pacific air works it’s way across the Prairies.

850mb temperatures on Thursday afternoon

850mb temperatures from the GEM-REG model valid on Thursday afternoon. The yellow shaded area denotes warmer (above 0°C) air flooding eastwards across the Praries aloft.

As the low pressure system that brought us light snow overnight slides off into Minnesota, it will drag cooler air into Southern Manitoba behind it. Through the Red River Valley, temperatures will fall to around -13 or -14°C today as colder air from the North slumps southwards. Tonight will see temperatures drop to around -20°C with some cloudy periods and a chance of a light flurry or two.

Milder air will make it’s way into the Red River Valley tomorrow as southwesterly winds pick up to around 30km/h in the morning and begin to scour out the remaining Arctic air. Temperatures will climb up to about -5°C by the evening, marking the start of a stretch of above-normal temperatures. For early January, our normal daytime high in Winnipeg is about -13°C; over the next week, we’ll remain slightly above normal with daytime highs near -9°C punctuated by a day or two where the daytime high climbs back towards the 0°C mark. We’ll likely see plenty of sun over the next week, too, a result of the drier Pacific flow, which will help make the weather quite pleasant.

If you’re wondering where our 2012 Winnipeg temperature summary is, don’t fret! We’ve just been a little busier than expected and are working hard to get it up in the next couple days! Until then, get out there and enjoy the break from the deep freeze.

Warmer Weather and a Bit of Snow on The Way

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Arctic ridging will keep our temperatures low over the next couple days but rest assured, warmer weather is on the way.

12hr. QPF for Thurday Night

12hr. precipitation amounts for Thursday night. A band of snow will pass through Southern Manitoba with greatest accumulations through the Interlake region and amounts diminishing towards the U.S. border.

We’ll see another cooler than normal day today as a weak low passing through Central/Eastern Manitoba pulls more cold air southwards and allows re-enforcement of the Arctic ridge in place over the Prairies. We’ll see temperatures climb to about -10°C under a mix of sun and clouds today as breezy winds develop out of the south to 30km/h. This will make it feel a lot closer to -20 out there. There may be a slight chance of a very light flurry over Winnipeg and the Eastern Red River Valley this afternoon, however the chances are slim and if it does happen, there won’t be any significant accumulations.

Temperatures will dip towards the -18 to -20°C mark tonight under partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow we’ll see another day with highs near -10°C with a mix of sun and clouds. A warm front will push through on Thursday night, bringing with it some light snow to the Red River Valley. Lightest accumulations will be in the Southern Red River Valley with greater amounts in the Northern Red River Valley into the Interlake; in general, 2-4cm accumulations are likely. Areas south of Morris may, however, end up with little to no snowfall if the area of snow stays just a little tighter to the system centre as it passes through.

For Friday into the weekend we’ll see an unsettled pattern with bouts of light snow possible through much of the time. We’ll be under cloudy skies, but comparatively balmy temperatures will be in place with daytime highs generally around -1 to -3°C.

A Windy Day to Mark Arrival of Warmer Air

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Winds will pick up today out of the south as warmer air finally begins to push it’s way into Southern Manitoba. By this afternoon, strong winds will be in place over the Red River Valley and temperatures will finally climb out of the single digits under an extensive cirrus cloud deck.

NAM Skew-T Log-P Digaram

NAM-based model Skew-T Log-P diagram for the central Red River Valley valid at 21Z this afternoon.

Winds will pick up by early this afternoon as a warm front pushes across Southern Manitoba. Sustained wind speeds will increase to 50-60km/h, with strong gusts on top of that; mostly around 70km/h, but the potential exists for gusts as high as 80-85km/h.

The picture above is a model-based skew-T log-P diagram which shows how temperature (red line) and moisture (green line) change with height in the atmosphere over a single location. Up the right-hand side of the chart are wind barbs, which represent the wind speed & direction at that height in knots. Each full tick mark is worth 10kt, a half tick mark is worth 5kt, and a filled triangle is worth 50kt. On the left hand side, the pressure is marked from 1000mb (the surface) to 100mb (about 16km off the surface). In the skew-t log-p diagram above, we can see a strong 20kt flow out of the south with an unstable layer from the surface to about 875mb. Within this unstable layer, near the inversion, winds increase to 45kt. Since it’s within mixing distance of the unstable layer, it’s entirely possible that those strong winds could be mixed down to the surface.

Temperatures will climb to about 10°C today, but with that strong wind it’s going to feel a little cool out there this afternoon. The winds will taper off this evening as things cool off, and then we’ll enter into a fairly pleasant weekend.

We’ll be under the influence of a weak low pressure system through the weekend, however unlike most systems, very little precipitation will occur near the system; instead most of the precipitation will be displaced northwards, into the high Interlake region, where frontogenetic forcing is stronger. What that means for us, fortunately, is that we’ll see relatively light winds through the weekend, a mix of sun and clouds and daytime highs in the low-to-mid teens. Overnight lows will be bumped up a little bit from the -3 to -5°C range to just at or above 0°C.

This weekend will be a pleasant break from the cold. Best to get out and enjoy it too; next week looks to bring multiple systems that could bring us some more rainy, windy weather.

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

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The Red River Valley will receive a second shot of summer this weekend as warm air floods over the Prairies underneath an upper ridge.

500mb Winds valid Friday evening

500mb wind speeds valid this evening. A large upper ridge will bring warm weather to the Eastern Prairies.

Temperatures aloft continue to climb as an upper ridge advances eastwards across the Prairies. As a result, we’ll see a beautiful weekend ahead across the whole Red River Valley. Sunshine will dominate the skies over the next few days as temperatures climb into the low-to-mid 20’s. We’ll see highs near 23 or 24°C across the Red River Valley today, while things will really heat up tomorrow with highs closer to 26 or 27°C. Some cloud will begin to move into our region on Sunday ahead of an incoming system, which will limit our high to the lower 20’s, probably around 22 or 23°C.

Enjoy a nice summer-like break this weekend to our fall weather.