Tag: Warming Trend

Warmth Arrives For The Weekend

Brad Leave a comment

The wait is over: the warmer weather has arrived. Today will mark the first day of a huge swell of warm air spreading eastwards across the Prairies over the next week that will bring seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures to the region. The warmer weather will be joined by a couple chances for flurries over the next few days as well thanks to multiple weak disturbances rippling along the edge of the warmer air.

Friday
-3°C / -10°C
Increasing cloudiness; a few evening flurries

Saturday
-2°C / -8°C
Mixed skies with a chance of evening flurries

Sunday
0°C / -4°C
Mixed skies

Today will start off sunny but see increasing cloud as temperatures will climb to around -3 or -2°C this afternoon. A weak low pressure system moving through the Interlake will bring the potential of flurry activity through the Red River Valley as it passes this evening, but any amounts from the system would be minimal. Temperatures will drop to around -10°C tonight.

Saturday will bring mixed skies with temperatures once again climbing towards the -2°C mark under mixed skies. Another low tracking through the region will bring another chance for some very light flurry activity through the late afternoon & evening hours. Expect an overnight low near -8°C.

Sunday will be the warmest day of the next few with temperatures climbing to the freezing mark. Skies will likely be mixed with somewhat breezy northwesterly winds to 20-30km/h. Sunday night will bring a balmy low of around -4°C.

Warm Weeks Ahead

NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast (issued 12Z March 5, 2015)
NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Fortunately for us, the warm weather looks like it’s going to stick around for a while. The NAEFS 8-14 day outlook is showing a decent probability of above-normal temperatures while only a brief mid-week cool-down looks on the cards for next week.

With the relatively low amount of snow on the ground, we may be heading into positively spring-like weather!

Big Warm-Up on the Way

Brad Leave a comment

A significant large-scale shift in the upper-level weather patterns will result in a rather abrupt end to the cold snap that has plagued Manitoba through much of February and allow seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures to spread eastwards through the Prairies. Unlike the brief warm-ups that occurred through February that lasted perhaps a day or two, since this warming trend will be supported by a shift in the upper-level pattern, the warmer weather is looking like it will remain in place for at least 1-2 weeks.

Wednesday
-17°C / -26°C
Mainly sunny

Thursday
-9°C / ⇒ -10°C
Increasing cloud; chance of flurries

Friday
-2°C / -10°C
Mixed skies

Today will be the last straggling cold day of the bunch with daytime highs struggling into the minus teens. Unfortunately, a breezy northwesterly wind to 20-30km/h will be making things feel quite cool. A few clouds may be seen through the day, however an approaching Arctic ridge of high pressure should keep things fairly sunny. Temperatures will drop to around -26°C tonight with light southerly winds as the ridge slides by to our south.

Thursday will mark the transition towards significantly warmer weather. After a cold start to the day, southerly winds will gradually strengthen to nearly 40km/h as a warm front pushes into the province. We’ll see increasing cloud through the day which may result in some flurry activity at some point through the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will climb to around -9°C. Heading into the evening, winds will shift to the west and diminish; temperatures look like they’ll remain fairly steady around -10°C through the night with a slight chance of flurries continuing under mainly cloudy skies.

The warm weather will keep on pushing eastwards for Friday. Winnipeg should see high temperatures climbing to around the -2°C mark under mixed skies and fairly light winds. Temperatures will drop to around -10°C on Friday night.

Warm Weather Keeps on Coming

For winter-weary Winnipeggers, it’s nothing but good news in the long-range. Warmer weather – either near-seasonal to above-seasonal – is expected to persist for quite a while for the region. A broad upper-level ridge is forecast to shift from being centred over the west coast further eastwards into the Prairies.

NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast
NAEFS 8-14 Temperature Anomaly Forecast

The result will be a flow of milder Pacific air spreading eastwards through the Prairies, resulting in daytime highs near the freezing mark. Given the lower-than-normal snowpack, we may potentially see a fair amount of snow melt thanks to the stronger sun & milder temperatures over the coming weeks.

Cool Weekend Leads to a Warm-Up Next Week

Brad Leave a comment

Cooler weather will stick around for a few more days in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley until warmer air begins working its way across the Prairies next week. Fortunately, things will feel nicer on the weekend as the gusty winds that have been around for a couple days subside into a cool but calm weekend.

The coming days will be dominated by one last big Arctic ridge moving into the region. Daytime highs will peak at –18°C today and slide towards –23 or –22°C by Sunday, with overnight lows dropping towards –30°C on Saturday night before warmer air begins making its way into the region on Sunday night. Skies will start off partly cloudy to mixed today with a slight chance of some scattered flurry activity, and then gradually clear out for a mainly sunny weekend. Winds will be breezy today at around 30–40km/h with some local blowing snow possible in the rural areas of the Red River Valley, but will diminish tonight to fairly light through the weekend.

Warming Up Next Week

As we mentioned earlier in the week, it still continues to appear that a fairly significant warm-up is in our future.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.

Both the NAEFS pictured above as well as the American CPC 6–10 Day Outlook are forecasting a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures returning to our region. Specific solutions vary quite a bit, but in general it appears that a big warm-up is on tap through the second half of next week with temperatures rising into the –5 to 0°C range. Quite warm air is forecast to move into the region aloft, and with no blocking ridge forecast to develop to our east and a generally more progressive flow, there’s even a slight chance that we might see warmth and sun, which would certainly be a pleasant recovery from the past cold snap.

Given that we’re nearly past the coldest part of the year and I can still remember how nice December was temperature-wise, I think it’s safe to say that this winter is a far cry from the brutal cold we had last year.

A Cold Finish to the Week; Warmer Weather Next?

Brad Leave a comment

Cold and dry weather continues through the end of the week and into the weekend, however long-range guidance continues to develop a consensus that will show a moderate-to-significant warm-up by the end of next week.

Today is bringing mainly sunny skies over southern Manitoba with highs near the –20°C mark. It will be a little breezy with northwesterly winds to 20–30km/h. Winds will taper off this evening with temperatures dropping to around –23°C. Clouds will thicken up overnight as a trough of low pressure slides into the region from the northwest.

This trough of low pressure will be the main weather story for Thursday; the first half of the day will be cloudy with some light snow before things begin to clear through the afternoon. Winds will strengthen out of the northwest behind the trough and by mid-afternoon much of the Red River Valley will see winds of 30–40km/h with gusts to 60km/h. Winds will stay breezy through Thursday night at around 30km/h as the temperature drops to around –25°C.

Friday will bring a few clouds and a high near –18°C with breezy winds to 30–40km/h once again out of the west-northwest.

Big Warm-Up Next Week?

Long-term forecast models are beginning to come into a consensus that we’ll see a fairly significant warm-up through the latter half of next week.

A time-series plot of forecast surface temperatures (red) and 850mb temperatures (purple) from the GDPS. Courtesy Spot WX.
A time-series plot of forecast surface temperatures (red) and 850mb temperatures (purple) from the GDPS. Courtesy Spot WX.

Probabilistic forecasts are all showing warmer-than-seasonal temperatures in the 8–14 day period[1], however some models are hinting that it might get significantly warmer. Shown above, the GDPS weather model is bringing 850mb temperatures near 0°C into the region through next week which allows the surface temperatures to gradually climb to around 0°C as well.

There’s a lot of danger in using a deterministic model that far into the future, though, and I’d feel a lot more comfortable with temperatures in the –10 to –5°C range by mid-week instead of promising highs near the freezing mark.

Alongside the warming trend will come a more active storm track which will bring the potential for a couple snow events across the region as well.

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for Winnipeg next week sit around the –12°C mark.  ↩