Tag: Warming Trend

Spring is in Sight

Brad Leave a comment
The GFS depicts an upper-level ridge building into our region early next week.
The GFS depicts an upper-level ridge building into our region early next week.

Winter-weary Winnipeggers can take solace in the fact that an end to the never-ending winter is in sight. There is increasing confidence that a large upper-level ridge will build into the Central U.S. and Southern Prairies early next week and finally bring some seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures to the region. First, though, we’ll have to make it through the rest of the week.

A Cold End to the Week

Cold temperatures will continue to persist through the remainder of the week with well below seasonal highs and lows expected. These cold temperatures are being caused by a large stationary trough of cold air over Hudson Bay that has locked the eastern Prairies into a northwesterly flow that has allowed cold Arctic air to spill southwards, dashing the warm-weather hopes of battered and beleaguered Manitobans.

Wednesday
-2°C / -17°C
A few clouds.

Thursday
0°C / -10°C
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of flurries.

Friday
5°C / 1°C
Late day cloudiness; warming up.

Tonight will be the coldest night for the remainder of the week in the Red River Valley thanks to another push of cold air on the back side of a low pressure system passing to our south. There will be a strong chance of another swath of record low temperatures broken – similar to Monday night – as overnight lows dip some 15-20°C below normal.

Thursday brings a similar high to today, around -2°C, however temperatures just off the ground will be a little bit cooler. This combination will result in stronger low-level instability and we could potentially see a few light flurries develop through the Red River Vally similar to what was seen on Monday afternoon. Overall the risk is very slight, though. Temperatures will drop to a more mild -10°C Thursday night as warmer air begins pushing eastwards.

Friday will be the warmest day so far this week. Temperatures look to climb above the freezing mark towards +4 or +5°C with only a bit of cloudiness to contend with. Winds will be a little breezy out of the southeast to around 20-30km/h, but overall it will be quite a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine. Some cloud will begin streaming in late in the day ahead of the next system pushing towards the region. The cloudier skies will help keep our overnight low fairly warm, with a chance we won’t even drop below 0°C. We may have to contend with some unpleasant weather through the overnight hours, though…

Big Shift on the Weekend

Precipitation amounts forecast on Friday night by the GDPS.
Precipitation amounts forecast on Friday night by the GDPS.

Models are all hinting towards some precipitation on Friday night into Saturday morning as a low pressure system lifts northeastwards through the Prairies. It’s still far too early to speak towards the system in much detail at all, other than saying the bulk of it looks to happen during the overnight period. Some models, such as the pictured output from the GDPS[1] really wind the system up and produce significant quantities of rain or snow while others lift the system much further north with little precipitation development. We’ll have more details on precipitation type and how much of what to expect later on in the week.

The bigger news is that this system marks a significant pattern shift as the upper level ridge we mentioned at the beginning of the article begins developing and pushing eastwards. As it does so, warmer air looks set to flood the Prairies, quickly launching our temperatures back towards seasonal to above-seasonal. Sunday will have temperatures close to normal[2] and we might see it get as warm as the low-to-mid teens on Monday, if we can manage to work past our snow cover.

Multiple days of near-to-just-above freezing temperatures coupled with the strong April sun should do quick work to melt the remaining snowpack across much of the Red River Valley. Melt will be minimal until the weekend, but even one or two days with temperatures in the 5-10°C range will do quick work with much of the remaining snow. Once we can eliminate the snow pack, extremely abnormal cold will be much harder to come by and it will be much easier to see seasonal temperatures.

  1. Global Deterministic Prediction System – Canada’s long-term forecast model.  ↩
  2. Seasonal temperatures for Winnipeg currently are around 11°C for a daytime high and 0°C for an overnight low.  ↩

A Quiet Return to Form

Brad Leave a comment

After an exciting start to the week thanks to a Colorado Low that brought anywhere from 20-50cm of snow through portions of Southern Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, conditions are poised to return to near normal by the end of the week.

A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.
A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.

A west-to-southwesterly flow aloft will slowly bring warmer air into our region and allow our temperatures to finally snap out of the 10-15°C below normal regime Southern Manitoba has been stuck in for the past week and push towards seasonal values for this time of year. The considerable snow pack still remaining will limit our ability to warm above 0°C without any strong push of warm air as any extra energy the sun is giving at this time of year will be going into melting snow, not warming air.

Wednesday
-1°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Thursday
-1°C / -10°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.

Friday
+1°C / -8°C
Clearing.

A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear and winds light today as temperatures climb to around -1°C. Temperatures will drop to around -13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness as a weak inverted trough extending northwards from a Colorado Low tracking through the Central Plains pushes into our region.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a few sunny breaks – with a slight chance for some flurries. There will be more organized light snow in southwestern Manitoba, perhaps a cm or two, but the inverted trough will slowly weaken and fizzle out as it pushes towards the Red River Valley. By the time it reaches Winnipeg, it seems likely that all that will remain is very disorganized and light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb to around -1°C again and drop to a low near -10°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.

On Friday, the day will likely start cloudy but clear out through the morning leaving a mainly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will manage to squeak above the freezing mark to +1°C or so, making for quite a pleasant afternoon. Expect an overnight low around -8°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

Mild Weekend on the Way

Things look set to bring the warmest air of the year into the region for the weekend. A fairly strong low pressure system is forecast to track through the northern Prairies, dragging mild Pacific air eastwards as it goes. A warm front looks to push through on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for some flurry or shower activity. Temperatures will climb into the low single digits with breezy southerly winds in the 30-40km/h range.

Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day we’ve seen in a long, long time. The Red River Valley will be smack dab in the middle of the warmest air and temperatures will climb to a more seasonal 5 or 6°C before a cold front pushes through in the evening.

Unfortunately, it appears we’ll see a return to below-normal temperatures after that. Exactly how cold is uncertain, however we’ll likely see plenty of “below normal” due to the extensive snow pack that still has a long way to go until it’s melted. On the bright side, it won’t be long until “below normal” will still be above freezing…

Hope on the Horizon

Brad Leave a comment

Bad news first: temperatures will remain below through to the end of the week. Good news: we’re on a gradual warming trend with some signals beginning to show that we may switch into a milder regime next week. Before that, though, we’ll see a slight chance for some flurries and some gradually warming weather.

RDPS output depicting expected precipitation amounts through the day today.
RDPS output depicting expected precipitation amounts through the day today.

Today will bring mainly cloudy skies with a high near -5°C. There will be a very slight chance for some flurry activity, although it will be far more likely closer to the U.S. border. A intensifying low pressure system in South Dakota will generate a band of snow through northern North Dakota running parallel to the border. While a few cm of snow are expected in North Dakota, just 1 or 2cm at most will likely fall on the Manitoba side of the border.

The very slight chance for flurries will continue through the overnight period as the temperature drops to around -15°C with skies clearing later in the night.

Wednesday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy. Slight chance of flurries.

Thursday
-8°C / -19°C
Mainly sunny.

Friday
-5°C / -14°C
Sunny.

After that, things look pretty calm as a ridge of high pressure dominates the weather story. Thursday and Friday will both be sunny days with relatively light winds. Temperatures will slowly inch higher, reaching around -8°C tomorrow and back to near -5°C on Friday.

Warmer Weather Next Week?

While it does look like we’ll see normal weather next week, we will likely still remain below normal, which will be around 3-4°C for daytime highs. At this point, it looks like we’ll climb towards 0°C for a high on Sunday, then plunge back into winter for Monday with highs back towards -10°C, then rebound back to nearly 0°C for the remainder of the week. It’s still a long ways out, so things could easily change between now and then, though.

With how things have been this year, I’ll take “below normal” as long as we can get this snow melting.

More Snow Tonight

Brad Leave a comment

More snow is on the way for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley as a fairly strong low pressure system tracks through North Dakota and spreads snow through much of Southern Manitoba. The upside to the snow is that rather than plummeting into another deep freeze, this system will actually mark the start of a notable warming trend for Southern Manitoba!

Wednesday
-17°C / -19°C
Increasing cloud; snow beginning early in the evening. 10-15cm overnight.

Thursday
-16°C / -23°C
Occasional sunny breaks with a chance of flurries.

Friday
-18°C / -21°C
Mainly sunny.

Significant Snowfall Tonight

While today may bring mainly sunny skies through much of the day, a low pressure system set to bring a fair amount of snow is on it’s way. Temperatures will warm up to around -19°C before cloud starts streaming in from the west later in the afternoon. There’s a decent chance we’ll see some light snow through the evening, but the main shot of snow will arrive through the overnight period.

Forecast storm-total snowfall amounts by Thursday morning.
Forecast storm-total snowfall amounts by Thursday morning. Updated image; original forecast is here.

Conditions will deteriorate from west to east through the evening as heavier snow pushes into the province. In general, between 5-10cm of snow can be expected for all areas along and south of a line running approximately from Dauphin to Gimli to Pinawa, however there are two primary areas of concern I have for higher amounts:

  1. Patchy areas of very heavy snow. Several models are indicating extremely strong lift associated with this system. While the moisture supply isn’t astonishing, there’s certainly enough for me to be concerned about some embedded areas of very heavy snowfall. It’s impossible to say where these might occur at this time, but be aware that there is the potential for snow to rapidly accumulate should some of these heavier bursts of snow develop. Of course, the heavy snow would also produce near-zero visibilities, so if you need to drive overnight, be prepared for poor conditions.
  2. Higher amounts near the western escarpment of the Red River Valley. With the low pressure centre tracking far to our south, we’ll primarily see easterly and north-easterly winds through much of the event. These are favourable directions for upslope enhancement along the western escarpment of the RRV. This is a more predictable feature, and I feel comfortable saying that areas near the escarpment will see closer to 10cm, perhaps as much as 15cm if the winds align just right. The winds will shift to northerly very early on Thursday morning, so the threat will have limited time to work.

Here in Winnipeg we’ll most likely see around 10-12cm by the time all is said and done, assuming the track of the low doesn’t dramatically shift southwards. Although winds may get a little gusty this afternoon, it should be relatively light through the snowfall event itself at only around 20-30km/h. Snow will taper overnight in southwestern Manitoba and early tomorrow morning here in the Red River Valley.

A Couple Cool Days as Pattern Shifts

Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies, although we’ll see a few sunny breaks through the day. There will be a good chance of some light flurries through much of the day and into the evening. No real accumulations should come of them, though. We’ll see a high near -16°C thanks to all the cloud followed by a low near -23°C with clearing skies overnight.

Friday will be mainly sunny and cool with a high of only around -18°C. We’ll drop down to a low near -21°C on Friday night with a few clouds pushing in.

Weekend Marks Beginning of Warm-Up

This weekend will bring warmer temperatures as a westerly flow develops aloft and brings milder Pacific air into the region. Saturday looks to bring mixed skies as an Alberta Clipper scoots through extreme SW Manitoba and North Dakota. It looks like our temperature will climb to around -13°C or so. Sunday looks to be mainly cloudy as Pacific air continues to wash over the Prairies. Models are hinting at a storm system that might bring us another batch of snow on Sunday night, but we’ll leave that one until we’re closer to the event.

Temperatures look to climb above -10°C on Sunday and close to -5°C on Monday. Better yet, it looks like the warm-up may actually be here to stay for a while!