Tag: Windy

Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm And Bitter Cold

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An Alberta clipper is bringing heavy snow to the province, but the worst conditions will arrive upon its exit. Blizzard conditions will develop Tuesday afternoon, followed by bitterly cold temperatures mid-week.

RDPS 24hr. Snow Accumulation Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 00Z Wednesday January 19, 2022
Heavy snow will taper off over the Red RIver Valley this morning with a widespread 10–15 cm storm-total accumulation.

The heavy snow has arrived in the Red River Valley and will continue until around midday. The heaviest snow will exit to the east with the clipper itself, but a few flurries will continue through the day. Conditions will continue to deteriorate behind the low as northerly winds increasing to 50 gusting 70 km/h.

Widespread blowing snow will develop on Tuesday afternoon from the Parkland region into the Red River Valley. The worst visibilities will occur in the Red River Valley Tuesday evening through the night. Ample quantities of fresh snow combined with howling northwesterly winds and falling temperatures will produce [near-]blizzard conditions. It will be a unpleasant and dangerous night out in the open.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday January 18, 2022
Strong northwest winds will likely produce blizzard conditions through the Red River Valley beginning on Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will reach a high in the -5 to -10 °C range early Tuesday, then fall through the rest of the day. The region will see lows into the -20 to -25 °C range by Wednesday morning.

The winds will begin to ease Wednesday morning, bringing an end to the blowing snow. It will be cold on Wednesday with temperatures barely recovering a few degrees from the overnight low as skies clear. Temperatures will plummet down below -30 °C on Wednesday night. Extreme cold warnings are likely across much of southern Manitoba on Wednesday night as wind chill values of -40 to -45 will be widespread.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Thursday January 20, 2022
Bitterly cold temperatures will return to southern Manitoba on Wednesday night with lows dipping below the -30 °C mark.

Thursday will also be cold with highs in the -20 to -25 °C range and light southerly winds. A warm front pushing across the Prairies will bring cloud to the region on Thursday night with temperatures rising close to -10 °C by Friday morning. That warmer weather won’t come without a cost, though. As it moves into the region on Thursday night, southerly winds will strengthen into the 40–50 km/h range.

Long Range Outlook

The winds will ease on Friday with a high in the -5 to -10 °C range. Some snow will move through southern Manitoba — perhaps close to 5 cm — followed by a cold front later in the day. Northwest winds near 30 gusting 50 km/h will move in behind the front, sending lows back into the -20 to -25 °C range overnight.

The weekend will bring seasonably cool conditions with highs in the -15 to 20 °C range and overnight lows near the -20 to -25 °C range. Saturday should bring sunshine, but some flurries may be possible on Sunday as another disturbance brushes by the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -23 °C.

Warmer Weekend Ahead for Winnipeg, Then Cold Air Returns

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Above seasonal temperatures will return to Winnipeg this weekend, but then the Polar Vortex will bring another blast of Arctic air to the Prairies.

Winnipeg will see a seasonably cool conditions today as an Arctic ridge slumps southwards through the day. Temperatures will climb into the mid-teens with mixed morning skies giving way to more consistent sunshine in the afternoon. There’s a small chance of a few flurries with the morning cloud, but any amounts would be very limited.

The next “big” weather system will begin moving into the area on Saturday. Southerly winds will strengthen tonight as a swell of warmer air begins pushing across the Prairies from the northwest. This will bring cloudier conditions back to the region this weekend, but much warmer weather. Temperatures will climb into the -10 to -5 °C range Saturday afternoon, then further to near freezing by Sunday morning. The region will see moderate southerlies up to 40 gusting 60 km/h on Saturday that will ease on Saturday night. The winds will shift northwesterly on Sunday morning.

RPDS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Sunday January 16, 2022
Temperatures will climb close to the freezing mark by Sunday morning across much of southern Manitoba.

A bit of light snow is possible as the warm front pushes through on Saturday night, then again as a cold front slumps southwards later Sunday morning. Accumulations will be quite low with only a couple centimetres possible.

Cooler weather will then begin to slump back southwards into the region beginning Sunday night.

Long Range Outlook

The main feature driving the weather next week will be the return of cold air associated with the polar vortex. Currently, it sits over much of Baffin Island and into the northern portion of Québec. Next week, though, it will shift westwards and then drop south, re-establishing itself over Hudson Bay again. This will set up a pipeline of cold Arctic air over Manitoba and send daytime highs back down into the minus 20s.

GDPS 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid 12Z Thursday January 20, 2022
The polar vortex will bring temperatures well below seasonal values to the Prairies next week.

There’s a little uncertainty on when exactly it will set back up over the region. Some forecasts show it establishing its influence here by Monday, some others have it’s arrival delayed until mid-week with a bit of cloud and snow moving through in advance. Either way, temperatures will be heading back into the -20s next week for at least 4–6 days.

There is good agreement though that it will not remain locked over the region for a prolonged period. Forecasts show the Polar Vortex once again shifting back towards Baffin Island then northwards again sometime near the end of next week. This will allow warmer temperatures (and cloud, and the renewed chance for snow) back into the region.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -13 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -24 °C.

Mid-Week Snow Ushers In Cooler Conditions

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Temperatures will climb back above freezing today, but a low crossing the region on Wednesday will usher seasonal temperatures back into the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Tuesday December 14, 2021
Tuesday will be a very mild December day across southern Manitoba with highs climbing above freezing.

A broad upper ridge over Manitoba today will bring another day of very mild December temperatures. That warmth will be short-lived, though. A deep upper trough moving off the west coast support a complex of lows that moves through the Prairies and American Plains over the next few days.

In southern Manitoba, breezy southeasterly winds will push daytime highs back up above freezing in the Red River Valley. Skies should stay sunny today as the upper flow deflects most of the cloud northwards . The winds will ease tonight with lows dipping back below freezing.

A bit of a complicated weather sleight of hand will then happen on Wednesday and Thursday. The low tracking across Saskatchewan will continue into central Manitoba on Wednesday. At the same time, a Colorado Low will eject northeastwards and move towards Lake Superior. As it approaches, the energy will consolidate towards the Colorado Low, weakening the Manitoba low into Wednesday night. This will send a cold front surging southwards into the United States.

Here in Winnipeg and area, that will mean a cloudy Wednesday with temperatures one again creeping back above freezing. Llight winds in the morning will pick up out of the north through the day as the main trough passes. The cold front will sweep through on Wednesday evening, bringing a couple of centimetres of snow to the region. Strong northerly winds of 40–50 km/h will ease overnight to around 30 km/h. The winds will gradually taper off through the day on Thursday.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 06Z Thursday December 16, 2021
Moderate northerly winds behind a Colorado Low moving over Lake Superior will usher seasonal temperatures back into the region on Wednesday night.

It’s worth noting that while significant snowfall tomorrow evening isn’t likely, a couple of weather models produce an intense band of snow as an upper-level trough swings through. Canadian forecast models produce significantly more snow from Winnipeg southwest, reaching over 10 cm by Thursday morning. It’s quite an outlier solution and at this point seems unlikely.

The biggest impact from this system will be the shift to more seasonable temperatures. Behind the cold front, temperatures will fall into the -10 to -15 °C range by Thursday morning. Daytime highs will hover in this range for the rest of the week with overnight lows down around the -20 °C mark. The region will see variable cloudiness through the rest of the week. Friday will bring cloudier skies as another disturbance tracks across the region. This system will likely bring a dusting of snow with it.

Long Range Outlook

Little change lies ahead for the region as a more typical winter pattern settles in. Daytime highs will sit in the -15 to -10 °C range right through next week with overnight lows around -20 °C. Other than a chance for a bit more snow on Sunday, conditions will be generally dry with a mix of sun and cloud.

Fortunately, it’s not looking like a huge deep freeze is on the way! Colder conditions should help get local waterways frozen more solidly, but still be pleasant enough to get out and enjoy outdoor activities.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is -10 °C while the seasonal overnight low is -19 °C.

A Gradual Warm-Up For Southern Manitoba

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Cold temperatures will stay in Winnipeg for another night, then a gradual warming trend begins for the region.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday December 8, 2021
Very cold temperatures of -25 to -30 °C will develop over southern Manitoba on Tuesday night.

Before that pattern shift occurs, though, it will be another cold day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will moderate more than they did yesterday with most areas seeing a high in the mid-minus teens today. That will come with plenty of sunshine too, save for a few afternoon clouds. Another Arctic high moving through will send lows into the -25 to -30 °C range tonight under clear skies.

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the pattern transition as an upper trough swings into the Prairies. It will spawn a pair of low pressure systems: one over the northern Prairies along the Arctic front and another over southern Saskatchewan along a push of occluding Pacific air. This area of low pressure will push up against the Arctic ridge exiting Manitoba, making for a relatively unpleasant day in the Red River Valley. Skies will cloud over on Wednesday morning as warmer air begins to push in aloft, followed by strengthening southerly winds. Winnipeg can expect to see winds of 40–50 km/h by the end of the day. Temperatures across the region will climb to around -10 °C by evening.

RDPS 10m Wind Forecast valid 00Z Thursday December 9, 2021
Moderate southerly winds will develop over southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

This system will then push snow from western Manitoba into central Manitoba on Wednesday night. Over southern Manitoba, the snow will ease to just a few flurries if much of anything with only 1–2 centimetres possible. Those southerly winds will continue through much of the night as temperatures rise to around-5 °C by Thursday morning.

RDPS 24hr. Accumulated Snowfall Forecast (10:1 SLR) valid 18Z Thursday December 9, 2021
The next disturbance moving into Manitoba will bring snow mainly to central and northern portions of the province on Wednesday night.

After that, the broader weather pattern will change. The Arctic Vortex, currently sitting over Hudson Bay, will start to retreat northwards. This will allow a more westerly flow to develop over the Prairies, spreading milder Pacific air into the region. Daytime highs will rise into the -5 to 0 °C range for the end of the work week.

There should be a fair amount of sunshine after skies clear out on Thursday that lasts into the weekend. The southerly winds will ease and shift westerly on Thursday as the skies clear out.

Long Range Outlook

Milder temperatures stay right through the weekend with highs likely climbing above freezing on Sunday. Forecasts show a bit more cloud moving into the region for next week, but mild temperatures continue with highs near or a couple degrees below 0 °C. The next notable chance for snow in the region may come next mid-week when the next disturbance moves into the region.