Tag: Windy

Warm, Unsettled Weather on the Way

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Winnipeg will see a mild but unsettled weekend as a slow-moving low pressure system works through the region.

Mixed skies will be in place over the Red River Valley today as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Winnipeg will see a seasonal high near 22°C with dry conditions. Areas over the southern RRV, though, may see scattered showers develop later this afternoon into the evening. Winds will increase from 10 to 20 km/h in Winnipeg to closer to 30 km/h near the US border. Temperatures will remain seasonably mild tonight with a low in Winnipeg near 14°C. An approaching warm front will sustain southeasterly winds at 20 to 30 km/h as well as bring increasing cloud cover. By early Saturday morning, showers and/or thundershowers will be in place across much of the Red River Valley.

The showers will stick around through the first half of Saturday morning, then push off to the east. In their wake, Winnipeg will continue to see mixed to mainly cloudy skies with moderate southerly winds increasing to 40 gusting 60 km/h. Despite the cloud, temperatures should climb to a high near 25°C in Winnipeg. Heading into Saturday night, the remainder of the warm front will push through, bringing more cloud and another chance of [thunder]showers to the Red River Valley. Temperatures will dip to a low near 16°C with breezy winds persisting right into early Sunday morning.

A band of [thunder]showers will spread eastwards acoss southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday morning.
A band of [thunder]showers will spread eastwards acoss southern Manitoba on Friday night into Saturday morning.
After those showers clear out early Sunday morning, Winnipeg will see a relatively pleasant day. Mixed skies will continue, but winds will ease into the 20 to 30 km/h range as temperatures climb to a high near 27°C. A cold front will push through on Sunday evening, bringing with it a good chance of showers or thunderstorms. There may even be a low chance of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the front as it moves through. The region will finally see some marked clearing on Sunday night as winds ease and temperatures head to a low near 13°C.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg will see a return to seasonal temperatures and settled conditions on Monday. It will be short-lived though; most long-range forecasts show the return of unsettled conditions by Wednesday. Winnipeg looks to see several chances for rain through the second half of next week. While a stretch of cloudy weather won’t be what most people would like, numerous chances for some rain sounds quite nice to my increasingly parched lawn!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 8°C.

Warmer Weather Makes A Windy Return

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Sunshine returns to Winnipeg today as warmer air beings moving back into the province. Conditions will be relatively pleasant – albeit windy on Thursday – with the only chance for rain expected overnight Thursday as a cold front moves through.

The upper trough which brought more cloud and showers to the province yesterday will move out of the region this morning, bringing an end to the showers as skies clear. Temperatures will remain slightly cool today, though, with Winnipeg’s high expected to reach 21°C. Winds will be light out of the west through the day. Skies should remain mostly clear tonight as the low dips to around 12°C with 20 to 30 km/h winds developing out of the south.

Thursday will bring warm temperatures back to Winnipeg as the high climbs to an above-seasonal 28°C. Unfortunately, the warmth will come with moderate southerly winds strengthening to 40 gusting 60 km/h. The Red River Valley will see a few clouds through the afternoon.

Moderate southerly winds will develop across the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon
Moderate southerly winds will develop across the Red River Valley on Thursday afternoon

Heading into Thursday night, Winnipeg will see a slight chance of thunderstorms along a cold front moving through. It’s one of those situations where the best support for thunderstorms appears to be both north and south of Winnipeg, so we’ll just have to see if any manage to develop near us. If thunderstorms develop, there will be a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with the main threat of large hail and damaging winds.

Thursday Night Thunderstorm Potential

Going over the MIST ingredients:

  • Moisture: A strengthening southerly flow will develop over southern Manitoba on Wednesday night, sourced from the central Plains. This flow will result in significant moisture transport northwards, evidenced by surface dewpoints increasing from the high single digits on Wednesday night into the mid-teens on Thursday afternoon. Moisture should be rather deep given the general large-scale transport expected to occur.
  • Instability: Instability will be moderate with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg expected to develop Thursday afternoon. The cold front will sustain the instabilities it pushes eastwards overnight with most models maintaining 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
  • Shear: Moderate shear will be in place with 30-40 kt of effective shear. Profiles show favourable directional shear within the effective layer with south-southeasterly winds near the storm base veering to southwesterly aloft.
  • Trigger: The cold front pushing east-southeast should provide the focus for thunderstorm development.

These parameters favour strong to marginally severe thunderstorms that could persist along the cold front for much of the night. Due to the favourable shear profiles, discrete thunderstorms may develop early in the event lifecycle upscale growth transitions the storms into a multicellular line. Marginally severe hail of 2-3 cm appears possible with these thunderstorms, along with wind gusts of 80-100 km/h.

Behind the cold front, winds will diminish as skies clear and temperatures drop to a low near 13°C.

Friday will bring settled, pleasant weather to Winnipeg. The high should climb to around 23°C with west northwest winds of 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will dip to a cooler low near 10°C as a weak ridge of high pressure moves in overnight.

Long Range Outlook

Winnipeg’s weekend is looking fantastic with sunny to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-20s. Winds don’t appear that they’ll be much of an issue, either. All in all a great way to start September!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.

Hot Start Followed By Big Cool Down

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After a hot start to the week today in Winnipeg, a cold front passing on Tuesday will usher in much cooler conditions.

Temperatures will soar above 30°C today in Winnipeg as a broad area of low pressure moves through the region. A west-southwest flow will send highs up to around 31°C with comfortable humidity levels. Skies will remain mainly sunny, and those aforementioned winds will only be around 20 km/h. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with a low near 18°C.

Tuesday will bring more cloud to the region and near-seasonal temperatures. Temperatures will climb to around 27°C before a cold front drops through the region. The front will bring increasing cloud and begin cooling off temperatures. There will be a chance for some showers or isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but low moisture and dynamic support will limit the rainfall potential. Winds will be notable with northerlies up to 30 to 40 km/h moving in for the afternoon.

A sharp cold front will sweep southwards through the Red River Valley on Tuesday afternoon.

A high pressure system moving into the region will bring significantly cooler temperatures on Tuesday night wth lows heading back towards 10°C. Winds will gradually diminish to around 10 to 15 km/h on Tuesday night.

Wednesday will see mixed skies gradually clear, but temperatures will be markedly cooler with a high near 21°C. Winds will be light out of the north-northeast as the high moves through. Expect another cool night on Wednesday night with a low near 11°C and light winds.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will return back towards seasonal values for the remainder of the week, but forecasts are indicating that unsettled conditions will return to the region. A few disturbances moving through will bring the chance of showers or thunderstorms back to the region Thursday night through Friday.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.

 

RDPS 2m Temperature forecast valid 21Z Sunday June 10, 2018

Unsettled Conditions Lead to Summer Heat on Sunday

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Cloudy skies with a chance of showers or thunderstorms will mark the transition into warmer weather that will arrive in Winnipeg on Sunday.

Winnipeg will see mixed to cloudy today as another disturbance tracks towards Manitoba. A chance of showers or thunderstorms will develop late in the morning for a few hours as a band of instability moves through the region. Once that moves through, temperatures will continue to a high near 25°C with some sunshine poking out for the afternoon. Winds won’t be too bad, either. Beginning light in the morning, winds in Winnipeg will pick up into the 20 to 30 km/h range out of the southeast for the afternoon.

Skies will cloud up again on Friday evening with a chance for showers or thunderstorms redeveloping overnight. The persistent southeasterlies will begin drawing more humid air into Manitoba tonight, raising dew point values into the mid-teens. Winnipeg should see a low near 16°C.

Any remaining showers should clear out early Saturday, leaving Winnipeg with mostly cloudy skies and just a very small chance of an isolated shower. Temperatures will be near-seasonal in Winnipeg with a high near 23°C. Winds will continue out fo the southeast, but only at 10 to 20 km/h. The cloud cover will begin to break up Saturday night as temperatures drop to a low near 17°C.

RDPS 24hr. QPF forecast valid 18Z Saturday June 9, 2018
While Winnipeg will see a couple chances for showers/thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, there’s always that chance it dances around the city…

Sunday will be a scorcher in Winnipeg with the clouds giving way to mixed skies and temperatures soaring to a high near 30°C. Winds will be windy out of the southeast at 30 to 40 km/h, though, which will make spending time outside a little less pleasant.

Sunday night will bring more cloud back into the Red River Valley as a cold front pushes eastwards into the province. While western Manitoba will almost certainly see a high chance for thunderstorms, it’s less certain in Winnipeg and other areas further east. It will depend on how quickly the front moves east, which in turn depends on how much and what sort of thunderstorm activity develops. That said, Winnipeg will see increasing chances for thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Temperatures will dip to a low near 18°C.

Long Range Outlook

Once the cold front passes on Monday, it looks like Winnipeg will remain in a much cooler pattern. Daytime highs look to move to seasonal to seasonably cool values with highs in the low 20’s for the remainder of next week. Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness and generally dry conditions.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 23°C while the seasonal overnight low is 10°C.