Snow Struggles Against Dry Arctic Air

Several waves of snow will try to push into southern Manitoba over the coming days, but they will have to try and overcome dry air near the surface coming from an abnormally strong Arctic high.

A low pressure system building into Alberta today will spread cloud cover eastwards across the Prairies. This cloud will push into Winnipeg through the day, bringing gradually increasing cloud cover. With some sun, temperatures should be able to climb to a high near 4°C. Winds will be a bit of an issue, however, increasing out of the southeast to around 30 km/h. Snow will begin spreading into southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon, then attempting to move into the Red River Valley this evening.

The snow will have a worthy adversary in the form of a large Arctic ridge over Ontario that will supply the Red River Valley with dry air. This will undercut the band of snow, weakening it and significantly slow down its eastward progress. Some light snow will likely arrive in Winnipeg late overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will continue out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will drop to a low near -4°C.

GDPS Normalized Surface Pressure Anomaly valid 18Z Friday March 23, 2018
An unseasonably strong high pressure system over Ontario will undercut the incoming low with drier Arctic air

Saturday will bring a bit of light snow in the morning with southerly winds continuing at around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Snow should taper off by midday, leaving behind cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cooler than Friday with a high near +1°C. A second low pressure system will move into the Prairies on Saturday night, bringing stronger southerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h to Winnipeg by early Sunday morning along with some snow. At this point, it looks like a few evening flurries will intensify into accumulating snow through the second half of Saturday night. Temperatures will dip to a low near -2°C.

GDPS Precipitation Type/Rate valid 12Z Sunday March 25, 2018
The GDPS is forecasting a large are of snow to spread across Manitoba on Sunday

Sunday morning should bring accumulating snow to Winnipeg with 2 to 5 cm of snow by the time it tapers off midday. The wind will diminish rather quickly in the morning as the low moves into Manitoba. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high near +2°C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week looks like it will bring variable cloudiness to Winnipeg with several chances of light snow. Temperatures will remain more or less near-seasonal, possibly shifting to just slightly below-seasonal in the latter half of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.

Windy Saturday Brings Seasonal Temperatures Back

Winnipeg will see a mixed bag of conditions over the coming days as seasonal temperatures build back into southern Manitoba.

Winnipeg will finally move towards seasonal temperatures as the icy grip of Arctic air is shown the door by milder Pacific air spreading eastwards across the Prairies. To round out the work week, Winnipeg will see mainly sunny skies once a bit of morning cloud moves out of the region. Temperatures will climb to around -8°C, just a tad warmer than it was yesterday. Skies should remain mainly clear tonight with temperatures dipping down to around -17°C.

Warmer air will push into the region for Saturday, but it will come with those wonderful southerly winds that Winnipeg so often receives when warmer weather is on the way. Temperatures will climb to a high near -5°C, but those southerly winds will strengthen to 30 to 40 km/h with gusts up to 60 km/h by Saturday afternoon. Skies will start off sunny, but by mid- to late-afternoon, cloud will begin moving into the region from the south. The wind will taper off through the evening as skies continue to cloud over. Some light snow will move into southern Manitoba overnight, but nothing more than a skiff is expected. Besides bringing the snow, the cloudy skies will help temperatures remain a bit milder with a low near -11°C expected in Winnipeg.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. QPF valid 12Z Sunday February 25, 2018
Winnipeg will see some light snow move through the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies on Sunday with any remaining light snow tapering off in the morning. Winds will be much lighter, and temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C. Winnipeg may see some clear breaks on Sunday night, but more cloud will begin pushing in early Monday morning as another low pressure system moves into the region.

Long Range Outlook

Milder temperatures look like they’re here to stay, with seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures remaining in place for much of next week. Precipitation still looks minimal, though, with no significant snow expected in the coming week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -16°C.

A Breezy Break from the Arctic Chill

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness over the next several days with breezy conditions while the city is given a brief reprieve from unseasonably cold temperatures.

Today will be a considerably more pleasant day in Winnipeg than yesterday was, with a much warmer high near -8°C this afternoon as a weak low moving into the Interlake ushers a seasonal air mass into the region. Winds will be a bit breezy out of the south this afternoon, strengthening to around 20 to 30 km/h and producing wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range. This will still be much more pleasant than the -35 wind chills Winnipeg saw for much of Thursday. Winnipeg should see plenty of sun through the first half of the day, but clouds will begin moving into the region in the afternoon as the low approaches, with skies becoming cloudy by mid-afternoon. Expect cloudy skies on Friday night with just a slight chance of some non-accumulating light snow. Winnipeg should see a low near -15°C.

Saturday will see skies clear out early in the morning with temperatures recovering to a high near -10°C. Winds will be breezy out of the west at around 30 gusting to 50 km/h, creating wind chill values near -20. The Arctic front will slump back southwards on Saturday evening, bringing more cloud to the region as temperatures drop to a low near -21°C. There will be just a slight chance of some non-accumulating light snow on Saturday night.

GDPS 2m Temperature Forecast with Annotations valid 12Z Sunday February 18, 2018
Winnipeg will find itself north of the Arctic front once again on Sunday morning.

With Winnipeg behind the Arctic front once again on Sunday, temperatures will be well below seasonal with a high near -17°C. Any cloud left in the region should clear out midday, and winds will be out of the north at around 10 to 15 km/h, creating wind chill values near -25. With clear skies much of Sunday night, temperatures will drop to a well below-seasonal low near -25°C.

Long Range Outlook

In what is becoming a notable trend, Winnipeg’s long-range forecast continues to lack any significant precipitation, with nothing more than a trace of precipitation forecast in the next 7-10 days. Passing systems will bring some cloud to the region, but generally speaking, things will remain dry. Below-normal temperatures will likely persist into the middle of next week, but then a trend towards more seasonal temperatures is expected.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -18°C.

Slow, Windy Climb In Temperatures Will Come Crashing Back Down

Winnipeg will embark an on a windy climb to well above-seasonal temperatures by Wednesday, but the warmth will be short-lived as Arctic air comes crashing back southwards for the second half of the week.

Winnipeg will see cool temperatures today under sunny skies as a ridge of high pressure moves off to the southeast and out of the region. Winds will be out of the southwest at 20 km/h for much of the day, then strengthen to 30 km/h this evening. That wind will produce wind chill values of -25 to -30, so that cold will have a bit of bite to it. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with winds slowly climbing to 40 km/h overnight.

Tuesday will bring partly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and milder temperatures, but the wind will be the main story for the day. As the pressure gradient tightens up between a low pushing southwards out of the Arctic and the departing high, winds will strengthen further on Tuesday to as high as 50 gusting 70 km/h out of the south. Those winds will make the day’s high near -6°C a whole lot less pleasant than it would otherwise be. Some local blowing snow is also possible, but likely in the usual trouble spots in rural portions of the Red River Valley. The cloud will thicken up on Tuesday night with temperatures dipping to just 8 or 9°C.

Windy conditions will be in place for Winnipeg on Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday will bring the warmest conditions of the week as very mild Pacific air moves through the region and pushes temperatures up to around -1°C. The warmth will be short-lived though; winds will shift out of the northwest in the afternoon as the first of two cold fronts swings through. The cold front associated with the Pacific air mass will push through midday, followed by the Arctic cold front in the evening. This will send temperatures from their high of -1°C sometime Wednesday morning plummeting to a low near -26°C on Thursday morning. Wind chill values will also begin to approach the -40 mark on Wednesday night, so extreme cold warnings may make another appearance across the region.

Other than the temperatures, Winnipeg will see cloudy skies on Wednesday with a slight chance of flurries in the afternoon, after the Pacific cold front swings through. That slight chance will continue through the evening hours. No notable accumulations are expected.

Long Range Outlook

The overall long-range pattern continues to be dominated by the position of the polar vortex. With the passage of Wednesday’s system, it will shift westwards from Baffin Island towards Southampton Island, shifting the core of coldest air into the Kivalliq region of Nunavut, along the western shores of Hudson Bay. As long as the polar vortex remains in that location, colder-than-seasonal weather will be the norm as the vortex maintains a northwesterly flow aloft that makes it easy to tap into all the cold air and spread it southwards over the Prairies.

The polar vortex will remain anchored over Southampton Island for much of next week with the Prairies seeing occasional weak systems rotate through along its southern flank.

Early indications are that temperatures may return to above-seasonal late this week as another low pressure system moves through the region, bringing with it a chance for some accumulating snow, but then the cold air crashes back southwards behind the low. The colder air looks like it will remain in place for much of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -8°C while the seasonal overnight low is -19°C.