Tag: Windy

A Mix of Spring Weather Ahead

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Winnipeg will see temperatures return to near-seasonal values to start a week that will see temperatures go on a bit of a roller coaster.

Winnipeg will see a whole bunch of sunshine today with temperatures climbing to a high near 14°C. It will be a bit breezy with northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h in place behind a cold front that passed through late yesterday. Some cloud cover will begin working into the region late in the day and bring cloudier skies for much of the night. The cloud should clear out early Tuesday morning as temperatures head to a low near 0°C.

Temperatures in the Red River Valley will be slightly cooler on Tuesday as an area of high pressure moves through, but warmer weather is quickly spreading eastwards across the Prairies behind it.

Tuesday will bring sunny skies to southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure moves through. With light winds and a high near 11°C, Winnipeg will see a slightly cooler-than-seasonal, but overall pleasant, spring day. Temperatures will dip to a low near +3°C on Tuesday night.

A low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies on Wednesday will bring warm and windy weather back to the region. Temperatures will climb to a high near 19°C, but south to southwesterly winds of 40 to 50 km/h will develop in the Red River Valley.

These strong winds and continued dry weather1 will produce potentially dangerous fire conditions in the valley.

Strong winds will spread into the Red RIver Valley on Wednesday afternoon.

Skies will cloud over through the day followed by winds easing in the evening. After a few hours of calm, a cold front will push southwards through the Red River Valley, bringing a slight chance of showers to the region as it moves through followed by breezy northerly winds of 30 to 40 km/h. Temperatures will head towards a low near +4°C.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will continue on a roller coaster through the remainder of the work week. After Wednesday’s mild conditions, Thursday will bring significantly cooler temperatures to the region with highs falling back to seasonal to below-seasonal values. The fall is short, though, with temperatures rebounding back towards the 20°C mark through Friday and Saturday. At this point, the weekend is looking beautiful with temperatures in the upper teens or low 20’s and variable cloudiness.

What Winnipeg won’t see much of, though, is rain. Chances for precipitation continue to look minimal. At this point, it looks like the next chance for accumulating rainfall will be early next week; weather models are forecasting a rather complicated storm system pushing into southern Manitoba from Montana on Monday through Wednesday.

For now, enjoy the warmth and sunshine!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 13°C while the seasonal overnight low is +1°C.

  1. Relative humidity values on Wednesday are forecast to hover around 20%. ↩

Variable Cloudiness With Temperatures Inching Towards Seasonal

Brad 3 Comments

Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness over the coming days with temperatures inching ever so slowly back towards warmer, more seasonal values.

Today will bring increasing cloudiness to Winnipeg as a weak warm front drops southwards through the province.1 Temperatures will climb a fair amount from today’s chilly start to a high near -6°C. The northwesterly wind will be unpleasant, though, strengthening even further to 40 gusting 60 km/h. This moderate wind will create wind chill values near -25 to -30 this morning and -15 to -20 this afternoon.2 There may be a slight chance of some light flurries, but they would be unremarkable if they happen. The wind will taper off quickly this evening as skies clear and temperatures drop to a low near -17°C.

RDPS MSLP & 2m Wind Speed (kt) valid 21Z Friday April 6, 2018
Friday will bring moderate northwesterly winds to the Red River Valley as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the west

A ridge of high pressure will move over the province for Saturday and bring mainly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures will climb to a high near -4°C, then drop down to a low near -13°C as cloud cover begins to move in on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring more cloud to the region, largely spreading across southern Manitoba from a low pressure system tracking across the Dakotas. Conditions look dry and winds will be relatively light out of the northeast. Temperatures will inch a bit warmer yet again with a high temperature around -2°C. Sunday night will bring gradual clearing to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with temperatures falling to around -13°C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week is looking like a bit of a mixed bag. Temperatures will continue to climb towards seasonal, but the trend is still looking like slightly below-normal temperatures. Perhaps there’s some solace that daytime highs should climb above 0°C for the week. Heading into the end of the work week, the chance for precipitation ramps up with most models suggesting some rain or snow on Friday into Friday night.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 7°C while the seasonal overnight low is -4°C.

  1. Yes, we’re in such a depressing weather pattern that warmer air has made it all the way from the Atlantic westwards across the Arctic and is now dropping southwards into Manitoba from Nunavut. ↩
  2. I really don’t want to be talking about wind chill values near -30 in April… ↩

Arctic Blast Pushes into Southern Manitoba

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Temperatures will drop significantly below seasonal values over the coming days as Arctic air surges southwards behind the Alberta clipper that brought mild temperatures to the region on Tuesday.

An Alberta clipper exiting the province this morning will usher in significantly cooler temperatures. Northwesterly winds will increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h this morning, cooling temperatures to around -5°C in the Red River Valley by late this afternoon. This cooling trend combined with the wind will make for a positively miserable feeling day. The morning cloud will break up, leaving mixed skies in Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, but the cold air diving southwards will produce instability in the lower atmosphere, bringing a chance of flurries that will persist until evening.

3km NAM Forecast Sounding for CYWG valid 21Z Wednesday March 28, 2018
This 3km NAM forecast sounding for Winnipeg shows the instability expected to develop in the low levels as colder air surges southwards.

Winds will taper off this evening and Winnipeg will head towards an overnight low near -10°C under partly cloudy skies.

On Thursday, a mid-level disturbance moving from central Alberta southeastwards into North Dakota will bring increasing cloudiness to Winnipeg. Temperatures will reach a high near -5°C by midday, but then the Arctic front will drop southwards through the Red River Valley and send temperatures plummeting. Northerly winds of 20 to 30 km/h will persist behind the Arctic front into the evening. Much of southern Manitoba will see the potential for flurries along the Arctic front on Thursday afternoon.

Significantly colder temperatures will move into the region behind the Arctic front, sending overnight lows down towards -19°C.1

GPDS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Friday March 30, 2018
The GDPS has temperatures as low as -24°C in the Red River Valley on Friday morning, but may be producing temperatures that are too cold

Friday will be a downright chilly late-march day with partly cloudy skies as more clouds pop up for the afternoon. Light northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h will continue with temperatures climbing to a high near -9°C. Temperatures should drop to a low near -18°C once again on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures will moderate slightly on the weekend, but the trend of below-seasonal temperatures is forecast to continue into the middle of next week. No significant precipitation events are forecast for the next 7 days.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 4°C while the seasonal overnight low is -7°C.

  1. Sometimes models struggle with overnight lows under Arctic ridges. The GDPS is forecasting a low near -23°C, but tends to cool too much due to excessive radiational cooling. Most other models have solutions closer to -13 to -15°C, but that is likely too warm. We’ve picked 19°C as a relatively happy medium, a couple degrees colder than the Barthrom calculation would suggest to account for the advective cooling in the evening. ↩

Snow Struggles Against Dry Arctic Air

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Several waves of snow will try to push into southern Manitoba over the coming days, but they will have to try and overcome dry air near the surface coming from an abnormally strong Arctic high.

A low pressure system building into Alberta today will spread cloud cover eastwards across the Prairies. This cloud will push into Winnipeg through the day, bringing gradually increasing cloud cover. With some sun, temperatures should be able to climb to a high near 4°C. Winds will be a bit of an issue, however, increasing out of the southeast to around 30 km/h. Snow will begin spreading into southwestern Manitoba in the afternoon, then attempting to move into the Red River Valley this evening.

The snow will have a worthy adversary in the form of a large Arctic ridge over Ontario that will supply the Red River Valley with dry air. This will undercut the band of snow, weakening it and significantly slow down its eastward progress. Some light snow will likely arrive in Winnipeg late overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will continue out of the southeast at 20 to 30 km/h. Temperatures will drop to a low near -4°C.

GDPS Normalized Surface Pressure Anomaly valid 18Z Friday March 23, 2018
An unseasonably strong high pressure system over Ontario will undercut the incoming low with drier Arctic air

Saturday will bring a bit of light snow in the morning with southerly winds continuing at around 30 gusting 50 km/h. Snow should taper off by midday, leaving behind cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cooler than Friday with a high near +1°C. A second low pressure system will move into the Prairies on Saturday night, bringing stronger southerly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h to Winnipeg by early Sunday morning along with some snow. At this point, it looks like a few evening flurries will intensify into accumulating snow through the second half of Saturday night. Temperatures will dip to a low near -2°C.

GDPS Precipitation Type/Rate valid 12Z Sunday March 25, 2018
The GDPS is forecasting a large are of snow to spread across Manitoba on Sunday

Sunday morning should bring accumulating snow to Winnipeg with 2 to 5 cm of snow by the time it tapers off midday. The wind will diminish rather quickly in the morning as the low moves into Manitoba. Temperatures will be near-seasonal with a high near +2°C.

Long Range Outlook

Next week looks like it will bring variable cloudiness to Winnipeg with several chances of light snow. Temperatures will remain more or less near-seasonal, possibly shifting to just slightly below-seasonal in the latter half of the week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.