Tag: Windy

Windy Wednesday Marks Return of Arctic Air

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Moderate northwesterly winds will move through the region today, ushering significantly colder temperatures into southern Manitoba.

Hope you haven’t put the deep freeze gear away yet, Winnipeg, because another Arctic pipeline is about to set up and send substantially colder temperatures back into the Prairies. It all begins today as a cold front slumps southwards through the region behind yesterday’s potent low pressure system, ushering in northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 km/h. These gusty winds may produce some blowing snow through the Red River Valley, but visibility should remain better than it was yesterday at times. Skies will cloud over through the day as temperatures fall to around -19°C. Once the cloud moves in, there will be a chance of flurries but no accumulating snow is expected.

Temperatures will then drop to around -26°C tonight with fairly cloudy skies continuing.

Thursday will see the first of what may end up being many Arctic highs move through the region. Winds will remain light, but temperatures will reach a high of just -20°C under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will dip to a low near -25°C on Thursday evening.

Skies will head back to being cloudy on Friday as a weak shortwave rolls across southern Manitoba, bringing with it the chance for some light snow. Temperatures will climb to a high near -17°C with light winds. Another Arctic high follows hot on the heels of this disturbance, though, and temperatures are expected to drop towards -30°C on Friday night as skies clear out.

Long Range Outlook

The long-range forecast looks cold, all thanks to the polar vortex.

The polar vortex is expected to be a prominent feature over the eastern Arctic for the next 14 days

Currently relatively week, the polar vortex will intensify over the coming days, shifting southwards from its current location near the Melville Peninsula – north of Hudson Bay – towards Southampton Island and the Kivalliq coastline of Nunavut. As it intensifies and shifts, the overall pattern over the Prairies will shift from the west-east flow that has brought relatively mild temperatures recently to a north-northwest flow that will allow bitterly cold air to work southwards out of the Arctic.

Temperatures over the next two weeks won’t be cold all the time; the occasional system passing through will drag waves of more seasonal air across the Prairies, but the general pattern will support those weak systems quickly being followed by another shot of very cold air.

This pattern is expected to last for the next 7-14 days, and will end when the polar vortex begins losing some of its structure and retreats northwards.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

Tuesday Storm Sends Winnipeg On A Temperature Roller Coaster

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A potent low pressure system moving through Manitoba on Tuesday will send temperatures in Winnipeg soaring, only to crash back down just as quickly. Alongside the warmth, Winnipeg will see something that has been relatively elusive this winter: snow.

A ridge of high pressure over the region today will bring cold and calm conditions to Winnipeg. Under variable cloudiness, temperatures will climb to a well below seasonal high near -17°C. Winds will remain light.

Conditions will begin deteriorating tonight as a potent low pressure system begins pushing eastwards across the Prairies. Temperatures will dip a few degrees in the evening, then climb towards -15°C by Tuesday morning as skies cloud over and winds pick up out of the southeast to around 40 km/h.

Snow will move into Winnipeg early Tuesday morning ahead of an advancing warm front. The heaviest snow will likely fall during the morning rush hour, then gradually taper off into the afternoon. Winnipeg will likely see around 5 cm or so of snow during the day, with amounts increasing into the 15 to 25 cm range across central Manitoba.

Expected snowfall totals Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning

Update on Winds

Winds will be quite strong out of the southeast throughout much of the day, with winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h strengthening to 50 km/h with gusts of 70-80 km/h throughout the remainder of the day. These strong winds combined with falling snow will produce very poor visibilities in blowing snow with the potential for white-out conditions on area highways.

Temperatures will climb quite substantially on Tuesday as the warm front passes and temperatures reach the daytime high around -1 or 0°C. Winds will ease to around 20 km/h as the low passes through the Interlake, then strengthen to 30-40 km/h out of the west-northwest on Tuesday night as the low exits the region.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy with a slight chance of flurries on Tuesday night as temperatures head to a low near -15°C. Northwest winds near 30 km/h may produce some patches of blowing snow on area highways, so be sure to give yourself extra time if you need to travel.

An Arctic high will build into the Prairies behind this system on Wednesday, ushering a colder air mass into the region. Temperatures will continue to fall through Wednesday, reaching -20°C by the evening. Winds will be moderate out of the northwest at around 30 to 40 km/h, likely producing areas of blowing snow with poor visibility on area highways. Skies will see increasing cloudiness with a chance of flurries dropping southwards out of the Interlake. Expect a low near -25°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

Unfortunately, the passage of Tuesday’s low marks a transition into a prolonged period of cooler temperatures.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast – Valid February 2 to February 13, 2018

In the wake of this storm, the polar vortex is expected to intensify slightly and drop southwards into Hudson Bay, establishing a large-scale north-northwest flow that will pipe Arctic air southwards into the eastern Prairies. Winnipeg will move into a cold pattern for the remainder of the week with daytime highs near -20°C – or colder – and overnight lows near -30°C.1

This period of colder temperatures is persist for much of next week too, with hints of a brief warm-up as a low passes by mid-week immediately followed by a return to colder conditions. So if you had optimistically put away the deep freeze gear, it’s time to get it back out!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -11°C while the seasonal overnight low is -22°C.

  1. While temperatures will be below normal, it won’t be unseasonably cold: most record lows are below -40°C for this time period! ↩

Arctic Grip Gives Way to Mid-Week Warmup

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Monday will kick off Winnipeg’s week with some bitter cold, but a major warm-up is on the way mid-week, sending temperatures well above seasonal values.

Winnipeg’s Monday morning is starting off with bitter cold entrenched in the Red River Valley as temperatures near -27°C combine with winds near 30 km/h to produce wind chills near -40. That biting cold will stick around much of the day with temperatures only expected to reach a high near -22°C and that northerly wind at 30-40 km/h persisting until midday before tapering off this afternoon. Skies will gradually clear through the day as an Arctic ridge builds in from the northwest. Tonight will be another cold one as temperatures dip down to around -29°C, but winds will be much lighter, making everything a little more palatable.

RDPS 250mb Wind Forecast valid 00Z Tuesday January 16, 2018
A large upper ridge will begin moving eastwards over the Prairies tonight, spreading significantly warmer air into Manitoba

Everything begins changing on Tuesday, though, as a warm front pushes southeastwards across the province behind the departing Arctic high. A major swell of milder Pacific air will be sweeping eastwards across the Prairies as and upper-level ridge builds across the region. The incoming milder air will bring with it a fair amount of cloud, but temperatures will climb to a high near -16°C with winds out of the south at around 30 km/h. Temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight as more warm air pushes eastwards, bottoming out around -18 or -19°C.

GDPS 850mb Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid 12Z Wednesday January 17, 2018
A significantly warmer-than-seasonal air mass will move into Manitoba on Wednesday, shown clearly here by the departure from seasonal 850mb temperatures

The warmth arrives in full on Wednesday as skies clear out, winds taper off, and temperatures climb to a high near -6°C. Wednesday night’s low near -10°C will even be warmer than the seasonal daytime high of -13°C!

Long Range Outlook

The mild weather will continue for the remainder of the week with highs in the -8 to -4°C range and lows near -10°C.

Temperatures are expected to return towards seasonal values for the weekend with cloudier skies and a chance for some light snow.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.

Windy Return to Colder Weather

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The pleasant temperature Winnipeg has seen the past few days are coming to an end: a potent cold front will blast through today, bringing strong northerly winds usher Arctic air back into the region.

While today will start off with mild temperatures near the freezing mark, a cold front will push through early this morning, ushering in northerly winds of 50 gusting to 70 km/h that will send temperatures plummeting into the low minus teens through the afternoon. There will be a fairly good chance of flurries today, but no notable accumulations are expected.

Temperatures continue to fall tonight, heading towards a low of -23°C under cloudy skies. A disturbance moving through the Dakotas will spread snow into southeastern Manitoba, possibly clipping portions of the Red River Valley. In Winnipeg, it looks like up to around 2 cm of snow may fall, but further south in the Red River Valley up to 4 to 8 cm of snow may fall overnight. Moderate northerly winds will continue through the night.

NAM Forecast 2m Temperature valid 12Z Wednesday January 10, 2018
A cold front will sweep southwards through Winnipeg early this morning.

Thursday will bring clearing skies to Winnipeg & area as the winds slowly taper off. Temperatures will be cold with daytime highs near -21°C. Thursday night will bring mainly clear skies with light winds as temperatures fall to a low near -30°C. The cold weather continues on Friday with a daytime high near -20°C under sunny skies. Expect a low near -31°C on Friday night with the potential for extreme cold warnings.

Long Range Outlook

Conditions look cold and dry through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Winnipeg will see variable cloudiness through the weekend as a weak disturbance passes to the south, but no accumulating snowfall is expected.

Long-range guidance suggests that temperatures will begin to climb back to seasonal to above-seasonal values in the second half of next week.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -13°C while the seasonal overnight low is -24°C.