Tag: Windy

Another Mild and Windy Day Gives Way to More Cloud And Unsettled Conditions

Brad 1 Comment

Mild weather will remain in place for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley, but a pair of low pressure systems will bring plenty of cloud, wind, and some wet weather over the next few days. Better to make the best of it, though, as it’s increasingly looking like Winnipeg may plunge into the winter deep freeze by the end of next week!

Today will bring cloudy skies to Winnipeg as a low pressure system moves into the province from Saskatchewan. Ahead of the low, strong southerly winds of 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 60-70 km/h will develop in the Red River Valley. The winds will increase through the morning, peak midday, then begin to subside through the afternoon. Temperatures will climb to a high near +3°C once the winds ease, but by late afternoon the chance for snow will pick up as a trough swings through the Red River Valley. There’s a chance that early on, precipitation may fall as rain showers instead of snow, but with wet bulb temperatures expected to remain below 0°C, it should switch over to snow as soon as it strengthens to any moderate intensity. The snow will taper off late in the evening, leaving behind a soggy mess as much of it melts on contact. Temperatures will then head to a low near -3°C with northwesterly winds 40 gusting to 60 km/h picking up mid-evening and tapering off overnight.

RDPS Forecast 12hr. QPF valid 06Z Thursday November 30, 2017
A large swath of rain showers and snow will spread across southern Manitoba today

Thursday will bring cloudy skies for much of the day, although some sun might be seen late in the day as clouds begin to clear out late in the afternoon. Winds will be light and gradually shift to southerly through the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. As mentioned before, skies will clear out for Thursday night, leaving Winnipeg with starry skies as temperatures head to a low near -5°C with light winds.

Friday will be another mostly cloudy day as overcast skies move back into the region through the morning. Temperatures will climb to a high near +1°C again with continued southerly winds at 10-20 km/h. Another disturbance tracking across the region will bring a mix of rain changing to snow to Winnipeg sometime in the morning and ending by mid-afternoon. W

Temperatures will dip to a low near -5°C under partly cloudy skies on Friday night.

Long Range Outlook

Mild temperatures will continue through the weekend under variable cloudiness, but a large-scale pattern change next week looks to put the wheels in motion towards an outbreak of Arctic air that would plunge much of central and eastern Canada into a period of below-normal temperatures.

GPDS Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomaly valid 12Z Friday December 8, 2017
The GDPS model is one of the growing consensus that well below-normal temperatures will be in place over the region by the end of next week

Models have growing consensus that over the coming week, a strong upper-level ridge will develop, and remain anchored, over British Columbia. In response to that ridge, a deep upper-level trough is expected to develop in response over eastern Canada, bringing a northwesterly flow to the Prairies that would set up the Arctic pipeline, allowing much colder air to spill southwards. With the growing consensus in the models, it seems like it would be prudent to enjoy the mild weather as much as possible…a more traditional Winnipeg winter may be looming on the horizon.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -6°C while the seasonal overnight low is -15°C.

Alberta Clipper Brings Mild Temperatures Quickly Followed By Windy Blast of Arctic Air

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An Alberta clipper tracking across the province will bring above-freezing temperatures to Winnipeg today, but strong northwesterlies will usher in colder temperatures this evening that will remain in place for much of the week.

Mild temperatures are on the way today as an Alberta clipper tracking through the Interlake spreads above-freezing temperatures along and south of the Trans-Canada corridor. Temperatures will reach a high near +1°C this afternoon with some rain showers developing across portions of the Red River Valley. Winds will shift from southerly near 20 km/h to westerly at 30 gusting to 50 km/h mid-afternoon, and then shift to northwesterly behind a cold front that sweeps through between 5 and 7PM, ushering in strong winds of 40-50 km/h with gusts up to 70 km/h. By then, any precipitation will switch over and fall as snow. Although snowfall is not expected to be particularly intense, the combination of snow with strong northerly winds will likely produce some areas of reduced visibility in blowing snow.

RPDS 10m Wind Forecast valid 03Z Tuesday November 21, 2017
Strong northwesterly winds of 40-50 km/h will develop over the Red River Valley on Monday evening

With the northwesterly winds, temperatures will rapidly plummet in the evening, going from near +1°C at 5PM to -7 or -8°C by midnight. This rapid drop in temperatures combined with light snow and strong winds will result in a rapid freeze, likely producing slippery roads and poor driving conditions. If you must travel tonight, be sure to give yourself extra time, drive safely, and ensure you have an emergency car kit with you. Any remaining light snow will taper off towards early Tuesday morning as temperatures head to a low near -10°C.

Tuesday will see morning northwesterlies near 30 gusting 50 km/h gradually taper off through the day as a ridge of high pressure moves in. Temperatures will be cool with highs near -7°C under mixed skies. Even cooler air will move in on Tuesday night as the ridge of high pressure moves into the Red River Valley, sending lows into the -15 to -20°C range, depending on exactly how much cloud cover remains in the region.

Winnipeg will see cloudy periods on Wednesday as a weak upper-level disturbance bringing a few light flurries to south-western Manitoba spreads cloud into the Red River Valley. Winds will continue to be light under the ridge of high pressure and temperatures will reach a high near -7°C once again. Expect clear skies and a low near -14°C on Wednesday night.

Long Range Outlook

The remainder of the week looks cool for the most part; a low tracking across the central Prairies on Friday will bring mild temperatures once again, but cooler temperatures crash back southwards in the northwesterlies behind the system on Friday night. Cooler temperatures look to stick around through the weekend into next week under variable cloudiness.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -3°C while the seasonal overnight low is -12°C.

Cooler Conditions Bring Flurries, Windy Thursday

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A pair of low pressure systems tracking across the Prairies over the next few days will bring a couple bouts of flurries to Winnipeg, separated by a slightly warmer, but much windier, Thursday.

Winnipeg will see cloudy skies today as breezy northwesterly winds up to around 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region behind a cold front that passed through overnight. The clouds will likely bring scattered flurries to the Red River Valley, but no accumulating snow is expected.1 Temperatures will be cooler than Monday or Tuesday were, with highs topping out around -5°C today in Winnipeg. The gusty winds will taper off later this afternoon. Tonight, temperatures will dip to a low near -11°C under variable cloudiness as the cloud cover from one system departs as the next area of cloud moves in from the west.

Moderate southeasterly winds will build into the Red River Valley on Thursday

Thursday will be a warmer day in Winnipeg, but strong south-southeasterly winds will make it feel not nearly as pleasant. A low pressure system approaching from the west will increase winds out of the south up to 40 gusting 60 km/h as overcast skies spread across the Red River Valley. While temperatures will reach a high near -2°C, the strong winds and lack of sunshine will make it feel rather cool. Winds will taper off on Thursday evening as the low pressure system moves into Manitoba. It will bring light snow to Winnipeg for Thursday night as a cold front slowly slides through the Red River Valley. At the moment, it appears snow amounts will be low, with up to around 2 cm expected. Temperatures will remain steady near -1°C through the night.

While Winnipeg will just be grazed by snowfall on Thursday night, significant amounts of the white stuff will fall across the central Prairies

Friday will bring cooler temperatures to Winnipeg. Any remaining snow will quickly exit the region in the morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds that usher in a cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop through the day to around -6°C with some sunny breaks developing in the afternoon. Temperatures will dip down to a low near -11°C again with variable cloudiness overnight and a slight chance of a few scattered flurries.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures look to be on a bit of a roller coaster through the weekend into the first half of next week, oscillating between seasonal temperatures and below-seasonal temperatures. No significant weather systems are on the horizon in the next 7-10 days.

So in general, near to slightly below-seasonal temperatures with no significant snowfalls. It appears the cold snap that began November has moderated towards seasonal, and a stretch of relatively benign weather lies ahead for Winnipeg.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently -2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -10°C.

  1. Snowfall amounts will generally be 0 to 2 cm. ↩

Cold, Windy, and Snowy Friday the Gateway To Seasonal Temperatures

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Today will be downright unpleasant out there as a potentially record breaking cold start to the day1 gives way to strong southerly winds as snow moves into the region. After today, though, conditions improve substantially with the record-breaking cold moving out of the area and a gradual return to seasonal weather.

The wind will be out in full force today as strong southerlies strengthen to 40 gusting 60 km/h this morning, which combined with the cold temperatures will produce wind chill values near -30 in the first half of the morning. Temperatures will slowly climb through the day, reaching -9°C this afternoon and then sticking there until rising further overnight to around the -5°C mark by Saturday morning. The winds will begin to taper off in the evening, diminishing to calm by Saturday morning.

RDPS Forecast 10m Winds valid 21Z Friday November 10, 2017
Strong southerly winds will be in place across the Red River Valley this afternoon

Those strong winds are due to the tight pressure gradient between a departing high pressure system that brought the cold temperatures and an approaching low pressure system. In addition to the winds, this low will spread light snow through western Manitoba this morning then into the Red River Valley for the afternoon. Most of the snow will be done by evening, but flurries will likely persist overnight.

While snowfall amounts won’t be too high — generally around 3 to 5 cm is expected — as the snow combines with the strong winds, travel may be impacted by scattered pockets of blowing snow. Certainly not a blizzard by any stretch of the imagination, but be prepared to take some sections of highways slowly as reduced visibility may be an issue from time to time.

RDPS Forecast 24hr. Snowfall valid 15Z Saturday November 11, 2017
General snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 cm are expected by Saturday morning across southern Manitoba

The weekend looks better; any remaining flurries should taper off Saturday morning as a very broad ridge of high pressure builds into the Prairies, although a few scattered flurries will be possible through the remainder of the day. Saturday should see closer-to-seasonal temperatures with highs near -2 or -3°C and northwesterly winds of 10 to 20 km/h under mostly cloudy skies, although some afternoon sunny breaks are possible.

Temperatures cool off a bit Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge of high pressure moves through Manitoba. Winnipeg should see a low near -10°C on Saturday night with variable cloudiness and light winds. Sunday will bring mixed skies and slightly cooler temperatures once again with highs near -6°C. Sunday night’s low is a bit of a tricky proposition as temperatures will likely dive in the evening, but then clouds and increasing winds will move in and bring the temperature back up to -6 or -5°C by Monday morning. At this point, it seems like the low will dip to around -11°C before climbing back up, but if it stays clear for a bit longer it could be a few degrees lower, or if it remains cloudier temperatures may not even dip much from the daytime high.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will bring seasonal temperatures back to the region with highs of 0 to +2°C expected on both Monday and Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through on Tuesday may bring some precipitation to the region, then temperatures cool down on Wednesday before returning to the freezing mark on Thursday as another low pressure system moves through bringing a chance of snow to the Red River Valley. So a bit of a mixed bag, but certainly warmer than it has been!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 0°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

  1. This post is being written on Thursday evening; while we’re pretty proud of our forecasts, even we can’t claim to be able to forecast down to tenths of degrees! ↩