Tag: Windy

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 21Z Monday October 9, 2017

Cooler Fall Weather Settles In for Thanksgiving

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As winds ease off, much cooler weather will establish itself over southern Manitoba and bring a distinctly “October” chill to the region for Thanksgiving. Warmer weather will quickly move back into the region, though, with above-seasonal temperatures expected to return for Tuesday!

Temperatures will take quite a slump today as a blast of cooler air spreads over southern Manitoba, brought southwards by breezy winds behind a major low pressure system that is now making its way across Hudson Bay. Breezy west-northwesterly winds will continue today in Winnipeg to around 20 to 30 km/h with temperatures climbing to a cooler-than-seasonal high of just 8°C. Fortunately, there should be a fair amount of sunshine with just partly cloudy skies.

Winds will taper off quite quickly this evening as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. With just a few clouds, temperatures will likely dip below 0°C in many areas with frost; for Winnipeg, lows should range between -2°C to +1°C with the colder temperatures in more open areas or near the outer edges of the city. Winds will pick up slightly to near 20 km/hout of the south by early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will bring warmer temperatures back to the region as the colder temperatures associated with the ridge of high pressure move off to the east. Unfortunately, some of that warming will be offset by breezy winds once again, this time out of the south to southwest.

RDPS Forecast 2m Temperature valid 21Z Tuesday October 10, 2017
Warmer temperatures will spread across southern Manitoba on Tuesday

Under sunny skies, temperatures will climb to a high near 16°C — slightly above-seasonal for this time of year — but winds will strengthen to 30 km/h out of the south ahead of a developing low pressure system in Alberta. Expect a bit of cloudiness to build in late in the day, although with sunset marching earlier and earlier, they may hold off until dark. Winds will continue out of the south on Tuesday night out of the south at around 20-30 km/h with more clouds pushing into the region. Temperatures should drop to a low near 5°C.

Wednesday will bring mixed skies to the region as the Alberta low exits the province and begins tracking eastwards across Saskatchewan. No rain is expected for our region, more likely remaining confined to the warm front extending across central Manitoba associated with the disturbance. Temperatures in Winnipeg will be a bit cooler than Tuesday due to the cloud cover, but temperature should still reach an above-seasonal 15°C or so for the daytime high. Winds will again be a prominent aspect of the daily weather as they continue out of the south to southeast at around 30 km/h.

Temperatures will then dip to a low near 8°C under mixed skies on Wednesday night with winds easing off a bit.

Long Range

The remainder of the week looks like a mixed bag; skies will see variable cloudiness with temperatures returning to below-seasonal values after the Saskatchewan low passes through on Thursday. Friday may be breezy with gusty westerlies moving in behind the low, but after that it at least appears that winds should ease off for the weekend.

GDPS Total Precipitation Accumulation Forecast from 00Z Monday October 9 to 00Z Thursday October 19, 2017
Little to no precipitation is expected across southern Manitoba over the next 10 days

Conditions look fairly dry, however, with little, if any, precipitation expected between now and the start of next week; the main storm track will remain across the central and northern Prairies, keeping the bulk of the rainfall well north of Winnipeg. Overall, the next 10 days looks to be quite dry across southeastern Saskatchewan across southern Manitoba and into the Lake of the Woods.

Aside from the wind, though, it’s relatively pleasant as far as fall weather goes!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 12°C while the seasonal overnight low is 1°C.

Windy Weekend Ahead

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A low pressure system tracking across the northern Prairies will bring windy conditions to Winnipeg this weekend alongside some milder temperatures.

As mentioned above, a fairly large low pressure system will move across the northern Prairies over the next few days that will draw some warmer air northwards out of the United States, but also produce fairly breezy conditions across the region.

Today will see the wind build out of the south to 20-30 km/h with gusts as high as 50 km/h as temperatures climb to an above-seasonal high near 17°C. Skies will remain sunny throughout the day, making for a relatively pleasant day. Winds will stay breezy out of the south at 20-30 km/h through the night with a bit of gustiness as temperatures drop to a low near 8°C. Skies will be fairly clear much of the night, but expect a few clouds to build in towards morning.

RDPS Forecast 10m Winds valid 21Z Saturday October 7, 2017
Moderate westerly winds will spread across southern Manitoba behind a cold front on Saturday afternoon

Saturday will bring another day of above-seasonal temperatures as highs climb to around the 16°C mark, but skies will bring more clouds, particularly for the afternoon. After a cold front moves through midday, winds will shift to the west and strengthen to 40 gusting to 60 km/h. There may be a slight chance of some rain, but it looks likely that any shower activity will remain north of Winnipeg. Winds will remain breezy out of the west-southwest at around 30 gusting 50 km/h through the night as skies clear and temperatures dip to a low near 7°C.

Sunny skies will move in once again on Sunday, with clear conditions through the morning and partly cloudy skies developing for the afternoon as we hit a high temperature near 13°C. Winds will continue to be breezy out of the west-southwest at around 30 gusting to 50 km/h. Skies will clear for Sunday night as temperatures dip to a low near 4°C.

Long Range

Much of next week looks…unremarkable. Monday will bring slightly below-seasonal temperatures as cooler air filters southwards in the wake of the low pressure system exiting the region, but a quick rebound towards seasonal values are expected on Tuesday and will persist through the week. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy for much of the week and winds look to be a bit breezy mid-week, but precipitation looks scarce, with no significant chances for rain until the end of the week.

So, actually, it looks like a lovely week of fall weather is coming up. Enjoy!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 13°C while the seasonal overnight low is 2°C.

Get The Sunscreen Out: Summer’s Back

Brad 1 Comment

Here comes the shortest forecast we’ve written in a while: summer is making a big comeback in Winnipeg as the forecast — both short and long-range — holds practically nothing but sunshine and warm temperatures.

Winnipeg will see a trio of beautiful days ahead as two features keep skies clear and slowly warm things up. The first is an upper-level ridge over Manitoba and the second is a high pressure system in Ontario that continues to exert its influence over southern Manitoba. These two features combined together will keep things sunny, and as the surface high slowly moves off to the southeast, temperatures will climb back into summer-like values.

500mb Winds with Jet Stream Annotation valid 15Z Friday September 8, 2017
The jet stream lifts far to the north of Winnipeg, creating an upper-level ridge that is producing clear skies over the eastern Prairies.

So both today and Saturday will bring nothing but sunshine to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley with high temperatures of 23°C today and 26°C on Saturday. Winds will be out of the south both days, to around 20-30 km/h today and 30-40 km/h on Saturday. Expect lows near 9°C tonight and near 15°C on Saturday night.

We could see a few clouds on Sunday morning, but overall the day should be fairly sunny. The only fly in the ointment could be a thick layer of smoke spreading in from the west. Temperatures may reach as warm as 30°C, but if there ends up being a lot of smoke it could be a few degrees cooler than that. Winds will continue out of the south at around 30 km/h. A cold front will swing through on Sunday night, bringing some clouds and a chance of showers to the region, however no significant rain is expected with the passage of the front.

Long Range

Monday looks to bring mixed skies and lighter winds in the wake of the cold front with temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday. Things then clear out for Tuesday and temperatures continue to remain above-normal through mid-week. A disturbance developing over the Prairies on Wednesday into Thursday will then likely begin bringing more seasonal temperatures, increased cloud, and a chance of showers back to the Red River Valley for the end of the week.

The biggest question mark will be how much smoke ends up in the region, though. With westerly winds, a fair amount of the B.C. forest fire smoke may end up making its way here, and early indications are that there is the potential for it to be the most significant smoke event for Winnipeg so far this year. We’ll be keeping an eye on it!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 20°C while the seasonal overnight low is 7C.

Labour Day Brings Windy, Cool Conditions and Chance of Showers

Brad Leave a comment

The passage of a cold front this morning will usher in strong northerly winds and bring scattered showers to the Red River Valley as a blast of Arctic-sourced air spills southwards into the region. The cool conditions will stick around for the first half the week, but temperatures are set to soar again heading into the weekend!

There’s no getting around it: today is going to feel positively fall-like as a cold front moves through this morning and blasts Winnipeg and the Red River Valley with winds of 40-50 km/h and gusts up to 70 km/h as a surge of Arctic air spreads southwards in its wake. Temperatures will reach a high of just 19°C today under mixed skies with widespread showers as an upper-level trough swings through behind the front.

With such strong winds in the region, if any thunderstorms manage to develop, they will have the potential to produce severe wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h. Additionally, marginally severe hail1 is possible due to very low freezing levels, but larger quantities of small hail would be more likely from any thunderstorms that could manage to develop today.

RPDS 10m Wind Speed Forecast valid 21Z Monday September 4, 2017
Strong winds (pink) will be in place over the Red River Valley Monday afternoon.

Winds will ease tonight as temperatures head to a low around 9°C under partly cloudy skies. Tuesday will continue to be windy out of the north to northwest at 30-40 km/h with gusts up to around the 50 km/h range, but skies will be sunnier and no rain is expected. Temperatures will be similar to Monday with highs around 19°C. Tuesday night will be quite chilly as temperatures dip to a low near 5°C or so as a large ridge of high pressure moves into the region.

Wednesday will mark the start of a turnaround back towards positively summer-like heat. Winds will be light out of the west under mainly sunny skies as temperatures climb to a high of 21°C. While it’s not a huge improvement from Tuesday’s temperatures, it marks the departure of the large ridge of high pressure bringing the cool temperatures as it slumps off to the south. In its absence, the upper-level ridge that is bringing very warm temperatures to western Canada will begin to work its way across the Prairies.

Long Range

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid September 11-18, 2107
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid September 11-18, 2107

Temperatures are set to soar through the latter half of the week with highs in the upper 20’s on Thursday and Friday, then potentially reaching the 30°C mark on the weekend. Temperatures are then expected to remain above-normal through the remainder of next week. Additionally, there’s essentially no chance for rain from Thursday onwards through next week in current forecasts as persistent upper-level ridging shifts the storm track well to our north.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 21°C while the seasonal overnight low is 9C.

  1. EC³ condensers severe hail to be the size of a nickel (21mm) in diameter or larger. ↩