The heat seen over southern Manitoba over the past week will be in place for just one more day before a low pressure system moves through the region on Saturday, bringing soggy weather and cooler temperatures.
Another hot day is on the way for Winnipeg, but humidity will continue to decrease slightly towards more comfortable levels. Winnipeg & area will see plenty of sunshine today with just a few puffs of cloud possible in the afternoon. Winds will be fairly light out of the west-northwest at 15-25 km/h. Temperatures will climb to a high near 28°C. Tonight will bring increasing cloud and light winds as temperatures dip to around 18°C.
A low pressure system will be pushing northeastwards out of Saskatchewan & Montana on Friday night.
Saturday will be an unsettled day as a low pressure system moves through the province. The daytime high will be in the mid-20’s with winds picking up out of the south to 20-30km/h in the morning.
There will be rain on Saturday, however at this point, there’s still some uncertainty on exactly where precipitation will fall. Indications are that amounts will generally be 5-15 mm, however convective elements may produce rainfall amounts up to 30-50 mm in thunderstorm activity.
One potential outcome of Saturday shows two main areas of convective rainfall with up to 50 mm of rain.
Ultimately we’ll simply have to wait and see how things shape up and what the nature is of the precipitation that develops through Montana and Saskatchewan tonight. We’ll provide updates in the comments below.
Much of the rain will taper off on Saturday evening, leaving us with fairly cloudy skies and a low that falls to around 16°C by Sunday morning.
Sunday will be a bit of a mixed bag. Expect mixed skies and a high near 26°C, however winds will be breezy, peaking out of the northwest at around 40 km/h and we’ll see just a slight chance of some scattered showers. Skies should clear for Sunday night as temperatures head to a low near 16°C.
Long Range
The start of next week looks fairly pleasant with sunny to mixed skies and daytime highs in the mid- to upper-20s. It looks like it will be fairly dry with a ridge of high pressure deflecting things south of the Red River Valley, but that will be sensitive to the exact location that this feature sets up.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a major low pressure system for one more day, bringing gusty winds and more rain shower activity, before drier conditions begin moving in through the remainder of the week.
Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will continue to be under the influence of a major low pressure system currently located over eastern Manitoba for one more day. Today will see cloudy skies and on and off showers through the day across the region, although they will likely be more numerous through the morning hours. Winds will be quite breezy out of the west to northwest at 30-40 km/h with gusts up to around the 60 km/h mark, and it may even feel more like late-summer thanks to a below-seasonal high temperature of just 18°C.
The rain shower activity will taper off through the late afternoon into the evening hours, leaving mainly cloudy skies in Winnipeg as temperatures head to an overnight low near 13°C. The winds will continue breezy at around 30 km/h.
Around 5mm of rain can be expected from showers across much of Southern Manitoba today.
Thursday will bring mainly cloudy skies, although a bit of sun may be possible late in the day. Winds will be lighter than Wednesday at around 30 km/h out of the northwest. Daytime highs will be a bit warmer throughout the Red River Valley at around 20 or 21°C. A lingering trough may result in a few afternoon showers near the U.S. border and extending back into southwestern Manitoba.
Skies will continue to clear Thursday night as temperatures dip to around 12°C.
Friday will be a pleasant day with light winds, plenty of sun and a high near 23°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
A severe thunderstorm threat returns to Southern Manitoba today as very warm and humid conditions persist in the region for one final day before a cold front pushes cooler and drier air into the region. The passage of the cold front will not be an end to the unsettled weather, though, as a couple more days of showers or thunderstorms will occur with a large upper-level low passing over the region.
Today brings a notable severe weather threat to southern Manitoba with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms developing over southwestern Manitoba and a moderate risk in the Red River Valley eastwards through the SE corner of the province.1 The thunderstorms will develop mid-day and push eastwards with the cold front through the remainder of the afternoon. It is most likely that the thunderstorms develop over southwest Manitoba first, and then push towards into the Red River Valley this evening. Stay aware of any watches or warnings issued by Environment Canada.
The HRRR develops a line of thunderstorms along the cold front and pushes it into the Red River Valley this evening.
Otherwise, this mornings cloud cover will break up a bit to produce mixed skies and the relatively small amount of sunshine will push the daytime highs to around 26°C. With very humid air in place, it will be a fairly uncomfortable day, feeling more like the low- to mid-thirties. After the thunderstorms move through this evening, we’ll head to a low near 16°C with breezy southerly winds.
Tomorrow will likely bring some sun first thing in the morning, but more clouds will move in with a good chance of more shower or thunderstorm activity in the afternoon. At this point severe thunderstorms aren’t expected, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if anything changes. Winds will be pick up to be gusty out of the north near 40km/h. Expect a high near 23°C and a low near 14°C with a continued chance for showers overnight.
Wednesday will be a cool and cloudy day with a good chance of more rain. The daytime high will only be around 20°C and winds will continue gusty out of the northwest, although not quite as strong as Tuesday. The shower activity will taper off in the evening as temperatures head to a low near 14°C.
The latter half of the week is looking like a return to seasonal temperatures and a chance of actually drying out a little bit.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 26°C while the seasonal overnight low is 13°C.
Apologies for the lack of an outlook image; time constraints have prevented me from making one. ↩
Heat & humidity will begin moving into the region today as a breezy southerly wind develops over the province, tapping into a much warmer air mass over the Northern Plains of the United States.
A potent low pressure complex developing over the western Prairies & Northern Plains will bring a thunderstorm threat back to Southern Manitoba today with the southwestern corner of the province under the threat for thunderstorms—potentially severe—this afternoon and this evening, while the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba seeing the threat move in this evening and into Saturday morning.
Before that, though, Winnipeg & the Red River Valley will have a fairly nice day ahead. Temperatures will soar through the morning, reaching within a degree or two of today’s high temperature of 28°C by lunch. Skies will be mixed today with cloudier conditions developing in the afternoon. Southerly winds to 30-40km/h will pick up through the day across much of Southern Manitoba, drawing moisture from the United States northwards into the province. By late afternoon, dew point values in the Red River Valley will climb to the 16-18°C range1 while in the southwest corner of the province, dew point values may reach the 20°C mark, making for very humid feeling conditions.
AWM Convective Outlook for June 24/25, 2016As the afternoon wears on, a leading shortwave lifting out of Montana will destabilize conditions over southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba, bringing a threat of thunderstorms to the region. There’s a slight chance that some of these thunderstorms may become severe. The threats from these storms will be:
Rainfall: Precipitable water values of 35-45 mm combined with storm motions of 20-30km/h will produce very intense rainfall, but the storms will be moving quickly enough that the overall rainfall accumulations will be limited.
Hail: With MLCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range and ample shear present, storms will likely take the form of discrete supercells early in their life cycle. These storms will be capable of producing large, damaging hail.
Wind: Overall, wind won’t be a widespread threat with these storms, but isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.
Tornadoes: The supercell thunderstorms in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba will be in environments with very strong directional shear. A small chance of a tornado or two exists with these storms.
As we move into the evening, scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible over the Red River Valley while the thunderstorms closer to the SK/MB border continue onwards and grow into a larger complex of thunderstorms that will push eastwards overnight. Instability actually increases overnight as moisture continues to be pumped northwards along the low-level jet ahead of the incoming shortwave. As a result, a large area of rain and thunderstorms will likely progress eastwards overnight, reaching the Red River Valley between 3 and 6AM. These thunderstorms will present a slight risk of severe weather with primary threats of rain and large hail, with a secondary threat of damaging wind gusts.
Worth noting: if the western shortwave offering support to this system ends up slowing down, the overnight thunderstorm activity may diminish over southwestern Manitoba.
Temperatures will remain very warm on Friday night with overnight lows near 20°C in the Red River Valley.
Saturday: Muggy with Continued Thunderstorm Threat
Saturday will start with whatever convection moving through on Friday night exiting the region, and we’ll be left with very humid conditions with dew point values likely climbing to 20-21°C. Temperatures will climb towards the mid-20’s through the morning under fairly cloudy skies, but conditions will undergo a fairly significant change midday as a cold front sweeps through. The passage of this front will bring another threat of showers and thunderstorms to the region and with MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg and ample shear, these will also have bring the threat of severe weather with rainfall, winds and hail a concern.
High dewpoint values over 20°C will be in place on Saturday morning in the Red River Valley.Once the front passes, gusty westerly winds will usher in drier air as dew point values plummet into the single digits, bringing relief from the humidity. Skies will begin clearing as well, likely providing some afternoon/evening sunshine. Temperatures will likely top out at only 24 or 25°C, though, and a cooler night will be ahead with lows near 15°C.
Dreary End to the Weekend
Saturday night’s clear skies will be replaced by cloud on Sunday as the main upper-level low of this whole weather system moves through the region. It will bring showers to much of Southern Manitoba with most of the activity through the morning hours and then tapering off through the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler with a high near 17 or 18°C and strong northwesterly winds of 40 gusting 60 km/h picking up by the end of the morning.
The winds will taper off overnight as the valley heads to a low near 11°C.
Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 24°C while the seasonal overnight low is 12°C.
At a dew point of 16-18°C, it begins to feel mildly muggy. ↩
