Tag: Windy

Mixed Bag Ahead

Brad Leave a comment

A mixed bag of weather lies ahead with some cloudy & cool conditions transitioning to milder weather with variable cloudiness and a chance of showers.

Today will be a rather cool day with a below-seasonal high temperature of just -1°C as last night’s snow pushes out of the region while a ridge of high pressure builds in behind, bringing moderate northerly winds of 30 gusting to 50 km/h. Much of the day will be mainly cloudy, but by the afternoon, clearing should begin working into the Red River Valley from the north.

Tonight will bring mainly clear skies and an overnight low near -10°C while the northerly winds gradually taper off overnight.

Saturday will bring plenty of sunshine to the region with just a few clouds and light winds. Temperatures will climb to a near-seasonal daytime high of +1°C. Saturday night will see an overnight low near -5°C with increasing cloud through the second half of the night as a weak disturbance moves towards the region from the northwest.

GDPS 12hr. QPF valid 18Z Sunday March 27, 2016
This 12-hour precipitation accumulation valid mid-day Sunday shows weak showers and flurries moving through Manitoba

A chance for showers will return to the region on Sunday as a weak low pressure system brings mainly cloudy skies to Winnipeg and the Red River Valley. Temperatures will climb to around 5°C for a daytime high with winds out of the south near 20 km/h. Skies will remain fairly cloudy on Sunday night with a low near -4°C.

Long Range

A quick look ahead to next week shows milder weather with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper single digits through the first half of the week, but then an abrupt shift back to below-normal temperatures after a major low pressure system moves through the United States mid-week.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 1 - April 8, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid April 1 – April 8, 2016

As the NAEFS image shows, for April 1st through April 8th, there’s a near-certainty of seeing below-normal temperatures in Southern Manitoba. At this point, it looks like this will translate to daytime highs near or just below 0°C.

No significant precipitation is expected next week, at least for now. If the track of next week’s major low changes and it shifts further north, well that could be a completely different story!

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -8°C.

Unsettled Weather Ahead

Brad 2 Comments

A brief reprieve from the cooler temperatures seen of late in Winnipeg is on the way as unsettled weather returns to the region in the second half of the week. Unfortunately, it looks like a return to slightly below-normal temperatures is on the way for the weekend into next week.

Today will be a pleasant day continuing the trend of the past several days. Plenty of sun will be around with just a few clouds throughout the day as temperatures climb to a high near +1°C. Winds will be a little breezy first thing but will diminish by midday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will dip to around -6°C tonight for the overnight low.

Thursday will see above-normal temperatures return to the Red River Valley as a low pressure system moves into the region from the northwest and spreads milder Pacific air eastwards into the southern portions of the province. This will bring daytime highs up to around +5°C, several degrees warmer than the -2 to 0°C highs of late.

Thursday will also bring moderate southerlies as we often see with the approach of warmer weather. The wind will be relatively calm in the morning, but increase to around 30-40km/h by the afternoon.

As the low pressure system approaches, cloud cover will thicken from just scattered clouds in the morning to cloudy by mid-afternoon. Rain shower activity will move into the Red River Valley through the afternoon period and persist overnight.

NAM 925mb Temperatures valid 00Z Friday March 25, 2016
The NAM forecast for Thursday reveals a broad low pressure system that will bring milder air into Manitoba.

The chance for precipitation will continue Thursday night as temperatures drop to a low near -2°C. As temperatures drop below freezing, any rain showers will switch to snow flurries.

Friday will see fairly steady temperatures with a daytime high of 0°C a slight recovery from the overnight low. The chance for flurries will persist into the afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Gusty northerly winds will pick up on Friday morning to 30-40km/h ushering in cooler temperatures that will drive Friday night’s temperature to around the -10°C mark.

Long Range

The weekend looks relatively quiet with near-seasonal temperatures and variable cloudiness.

The bigger weather story on the horizon is a system that will move through southern Manitoba & the northern plains of the U.S. in the second half of next week.

Details of this system are fairly fuzzy at this point, other than saying it will likely be a potent winter storm with a mix of rain, snow and strong wind. At this point, models keep the precipitation in the United States and bring just strong northerlies to our region, but that forecast can easily change over the coming week. The bigger story will be the pattern change that this system will lead into:

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 30 - April 06, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid March 30 – April 06, 2016

Multiple long-range forecasts are showing a high probability of a brief early-April cool snap with temperatures below seasonal values. With daytime highs in the 0 to -5°C range, it won’t exactly be bone-chillingly cold, but it will be well below the seasonal daytime highs near 5-6°C for that time of year.

Winnipeg’s seasonal daytime high is currently 2°C while the seasonal overnight low is -9°C.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity valid 18Z Tuesday March 15, 2016

Major Storm System Looms

Scott 1 Comment

We’ll see one more nice day today before a potentially significant weather system affects us on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain and snow is expected in southern Manitoba with this system, but exact amounts remain unclear.

Today will be another very nice day. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens over much of southern Manitoba, allowing our snow melt to continue. Many rural parts of southern Manitoba are already snow-free, but there is still snow to melt in sheltered areas. Skies will be mainly sunny, with breezy south-east winds.

A major low pressure system will affect southern Manitoba this week
A major low pressure system will affect southern Manitoba this week

A major low pressure system is expected to affect southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring a combination of rain and snow, which makes it difficult to forecast. At this time it appears that rain will be the main mode of precipitation over the Red River Valley. Models disagree widely on potential accumulation, so it is difficult to say exactly how much rain will fall. A “best guess” is that Winnipeg will see about 5-15 mm of rain. More or less rain could fall depending on how the system evolves.

We will continue to be under the influence of this system on Wednesday, but temperatures will fall as we experience a stiff north-westerly flow. As a result of this cold air surging in from the north, rain is expected to change over to snow, with a couple centimetres of accumulation being possible. The exact amount of snow will depend on how much the system stalls over our area and how much cold air manages to infiltrate southern Manitoba. High temperatures on Wednesday are currently expected to be near 2C, which would not favour large accumulations.

Long Range

The end of the week is expected to be colder as the system from earlier in the week pulls down colder air from the north. Longer range models suggest that the second half of March will see a cooler pattern with outbreaks of colder arctic air. However, if we remain mainly snow-free following this week’s system, it will be difficult for very cold conditions to last long as the darker soil will be able to absorb much more sunlight than snow would.

Warm Weather Brings Unsettled Conditions

Brad Leave a comment

Today will mark the start of a prolonged spell of unseasonably warm weather for Southern Manitoba. A strong west-to-southwest flow aloft will begin building into the region today, ushering in much milder Pacific air which will help daytime highs climb above the freezing mark. The milder weather will bring unsettled weather with numerous chances for snow or rain along with the risk for freezing rain over the coming 3-5 days.

Today will bring soaring temperatures as gusty southerly winds develop and raise our temperatures from sub-minus 20 values this morning to around -4 or -3°C by the end of the day. While winds will be light early this morning, they will pick up towards midday to 30-40 km/h out of the south as the warm front towards the Red River Valley. As the warmer air advances eastwards, it will produce scattered flurries that will pass through much of the Red River Valley.

Temperatures will remain steady or drop slightly on Thursday night as more warm air surges northeastwards ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Any remaining flurry activity will taper off overnight, but by Thursday morning the potential for precipitation will return.

RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016
RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016

Thursday will be a mild but messy day. A low pressure system tracking across the Southern Prairies will spread a wintery mix of precipitation through the region with pretty much anything possible. With a high of just +1°C, much of the day will bring the potential for flurries or ice pellets, with the risk of freezing rain. At this point it doesn’t appear that amount will be too significant for the Red River Valley, but with a significant chance for freezing precipitation, we’ll be keeping close tabs on it.

Winds will be moderate throughout Thursday morning out of the southeast to about 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb to near the 0°C mark and then remain there through the remainder of Thursday and through Thursday night. The chance for any type of precipitation (flurries, freezing rain, rain showers) will likely continue through Thursday night.

Friday will see even warmer air push into the Red River Valley with a daytime high near +2°C expected. There will continue to be a chance for flurries in the morning transitioning to rain showers. Winds will remain light until later in the day when a weak cold front swings through and ushers in winds near 30km/h out of the west-northwest.

Long Range: Mild Weather Continues

Looking forward, it looks like the warmer temperatures will remain in place for a while yet. This weekend will remain warm with daytime highs near 0°C on Saturday and -5°C on Sunday, with chances for snow on both days.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook

Further on into next week, temperatures are forecast to continue above seasonal for this time of year as shown above in the CPC’s 6-10 day temperature outlook.

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -8°C and the normal overnight low is -18°C.