Tag: Windy

Mild Weather Returns for End of Weekend

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Bitterly cold temperatures will be in place today as a strong Arctic ridge of high pressure moves through the region. This cold snap will be short-lived as warmer air begins moving into the region through the weekend; by Sunday, milder temperatures will be in place alongside some light snow.

Today will be, temperature-wise, the coldest day of the week as temperatures are held back by the breezy northwesterly winds of an advancing Arctic air mass. Temperatures will recover only a little bit as they struggle to climb to an afternoon high near -21°C before quickly beginning to drop as the sun goes down this evening.

Environment Canada's extreme cold warning issued Thursday afternoon.
Environment Canada’s extreme cold warning issued Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures will plummet to the -30°C mark by Saturday morning as winds gradually diminish. Wind chills this morning as well as tonight will likely be flirting closely with the -40 mark. Environment Canada has issued an extreme cold warning for much of the province because of that.

Saturday may end up feeling like a colder day than Friday; while warmer temperatures may begin to work into the region, they’ll be accompanied by those famous winter southerlies that result in a fairly miserable transition day to warmer weather. While temperatures will rise towards -15°C by the end of the day, southerly winds will strengthen to around 40km/h making it feel significantly colder than it actually is. As a warm front begins moving into Manitoba later in the day, it will spread cloud cover into the Red River Valley and by mid-evening, it seems likely that skies will be mixed to cloudy with a chance of flurries. It will stay fairly windy through the night as temperatures continue to rise to around -12°C by Sunday morning.

GDPS 850mb temperature forecast valid Sunday evening
A frontal wave will pass through Manitoba on Sunday brininging warmer weather and light snow.

Sunday will be significantly more pleasant as mild weather continues to move into the region. Temperatures will climb to near -6°C on Sunday afternoon with light winds and a good chance of light snow. No significant accumulations are expected with Sunday’s disturbance, although 1-2cm of snow could pile up locally. Temperatures will fall to just -9 or -10°C on Sunday night under cloudy skies.

Long Range: Generally Mild

Looking ahead into next week, it looks like Southern Manitoba is transitioning into a generally above-normal temperature pattern.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast
The CPC is calling for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day timeframe.

Milder Pacific air will be building into the province through much of next week. The start of next week will see a bit more variability in temperatures, with some days above normal and some below, but by the second half of the week there seems to be a fair amount of confidence of temperatures switching to a more persistent above-normal pattern. Current guidance places daytime highs near -5°C by the end of next week into the week after.

Through this period, no significant precipitation events are expected.

The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -19°C.

Weekend Storm To Bring Snow & Warmer Weather

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Warm weather is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend as a strong low pressure system developing over Northern Alberta spreads mild air eastwards through the Prairies. This storm system will then slide southeastwards across the Prairies, bringing a moderate snowfall event to Manitoba primarily through Saturday afternoon and Sunday, followed by falling temperatures, gusty winds and blowing snow.

Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today as the city remains locked underneath a tight baroclinic zone. [1] There will be a continued chance of occasionally seeing some of the flurry activity that developed last night over the city, however no real accumulations of snow are expected today. Temperatures will be fairly pleasant with a daytime high near -6°C, which is 4°C above the normal high of -10°C for this time of year.

The chance for any flurry activity will diminish tonight, but the cloud will stick around as temperatures dip to around -11°C for the overnight low.

Storm System Moves in on Saturday

Saturday will bring the arrival of both warmer weather and the storm system that will bring a new batch of snow to the region. First the good news: temperatures will be on their way up through the entire day. From the morning low near -11°C, temperatures will gradually climb to near -5°C midday and then up to near -1°C by evening. Temperatures will then remain fairly steady through the night, wavering around the -1°C mark. Cooler air will begin working into the region on Sunday, dropping the temperatures in Winnipeg to around -8°C by the evening.

AWM Snowfall Forecast for February 6/7, 2016
Updated AWM Snowfall Forecast for February 6/7, 2016 (Original here)

While some flurries are possible through the morning, the real snow will develop through the afternoon hours as the low centre of the storm begins moving into Southern Manitoba. Snow will intensify into the evening and the heaviest snow of the storm will be through Saturday night. On Sunday morning the snow will likely begin to ease, but continue to persist much of the day. By the time all is said and done, it looks quite likely that essentially all of Southern Manitoba will have seen at least 5cm of new snow before things taper off on Sunday night.

The heaviest amounts will fall to the north of the low track, which, given that it’s still a day and a half out, could change. The current agreement seems relatively dependable, however if it does end up shifting south even just a little, it’s possible that Winnipeg could surpass 10cm.

Although this system has the potential of producing a lot of snow, it doesn’t look like it will qualify for a snowfall warning from Environment Canada, which requires 10cm to fall within a 12hr. time period. This system will produce higher amounts more through it’s longer residency time than its intensity. That said, it’s still early for a lot of things with systems like these; we’ll be keeping an eye on it and updating forecasts if it looks like it’s going to change significantly from current expectations.

Lastly, there will be a bit of wind with this system too. Winds won’t be too bad on Saturday, however for a short while in the afternoon winds may climb up to around 30-40km/h out of the southeast. Winds will diminish overnight before picking up on Sunday out of the northwest. Blowing snow will be an issue on Sunday as the northwesterly winds increase to 40 gusting 60km/h and combine with the fresh snow. Through the Red River Valley, the strong winds will be in place by mid-day Sunday and persist into the late evening hours, so if you have plans to travel on Sunday afternoon or evening, prepare to give yourself some extra time to account for poor visibilities and driving conditions. For those reading this in southwestern Manitoba, the stronger winds will be in place by Sunday morning and persist into the overnight period as well, making blowing snow an issue all the way west into southeastern Saskatchewan.

Long Range: Colder Weather…But Only Briefly

Behind this storm system, cooler air will begin slumping into the Prairies, returning temperatures to seasonal values. Another batch of snow is possible Tuesday night as another disturbance moves through the region, which will usher in a pattern change that will see southwestern Manitoba clipped by several systems while even colder air works into the Prairies.

NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid February 13-20, 2016
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid February 13-20, 2016

Into the second half of next week, below-seasonal temperatures will begin moving into the province with daytime highs slumping into the low minus teens and overnight lows dipping below -20°C. This cooler weather will likely persist into the early parts of the following week before a moderating trend begins, shown by the higher probabilities of cooler-than-normal weather in the NAEFS forecast above.

The seasonal daytime high for February 5th in Winnipeg is -10°C, while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.

  1. A baroclinic zone is an area where there is a strong temperature gradient across relatively short distances, either at the surface or aloft.  ↩

Windy Transition to Mild Weather

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Warmer weather is on the way for the weekend with temperatures soaring close to the freezing mark, however not before a blustery day that will be rather miserable and may impact transportation throughout the Red River Valley.

Windy Weather Developing

Windy weather is on the way for Winnipeg today courtesy a developing low pressure system pushing eastwards across the Prairies. As this system moves towards Manitoba, a strong pressure gradient will develop over the Red River Valley between the incoming low pressure centre and departing ridge of high pressure. As the gradient strengthens in the afternoon, strong southerly winds will develop throughout the Red River Valley.

Strong winds are expected by Friday evening through Southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains
Strong winds are expected by Friday evening through Southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains (the highlighted area).

Sustained wind speeds will increase to 40-50 km/h by the early evening. It seems fairly probable given the near-constant light snow and ice crystals that have fallen over the last several days that blowing snow will become a transportation issue for Friday night into Saturday morning. In Winnipeg it shouldn’t be too bad, but in rural areas, particularly along west-east running highways, the potential for near-whiteout conditions exists. Be sure to give yourself extra time and carry a winter survival kit if you will be travelling on area highways.

Warmer Weather Brings Risk for Freezing Rain or Drizzle

Winds will begin tapering off on Saturday morning as the low pressure system arrives, bringing with it a blast of mild Pacific air. Despite the fact that skies will remain cloudy for most of the day, temperatures will soar to a high of -1°C.

Alongside the surge of warm air will come a risk of some freezing rain. An above-freezing level (AFL) will develop overnight, and by morning an area of precipitation is expected to slide through Parkland Manitoba, the Interlake and northern Red River Valley before sliding eastwards into Northern Ontario.

YWG Forecast Sounding valid Saturday morning from the NAM
This forecast sounding for Winnipeg from the NAM shows a well-defined AFL with Tw ≥ 0°C.

With sustained warm air advection and a wet-bulb temperature above 0°C in the AFL, the potential for organized freezing rain exists. The highest likelihood lies over the Swan River region and then southeastwards through the Interlake. The risk exists over the Red River Valley, but at this point it doesn’t appear that actual amounts will be particularly high. Nonetheless, it doesn’t take much freezing rain to make things slick, so we’ll monitor things and provide an update if the threat for the Red River Valley increases.

Behind the warm front, freezing drizzle will be possible throughout much of the day with saturated low-levels and the lift associated with the incoming low. Winds will be calm through the afternoon.

Winds will shift to the northwest in the evening as a cold front passes through. Skies will remain fairly cloudy and the threat for freezing drizzle will persist well behind the cold front and through much of the night. Temperatures will drop to around -8°C by Sunday morning.

Sunday will bring weak cold air advection through the day, resulting in temperatures rebounding only slightly if at all through the day. The chance for flurries will redevelop as temperature profiles become too cold for freezing drizzle and more favourable for snow. That said, overall moisture supply will be dwindling, so at this point it appears that there will be just a chance for some flurries.

Sunday night will bring cloudy skies and a low near -10°C.

Seasonal Weather Leads To Blustery End of Week

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Winnipeg will see near-seasonal temperatures over the coming days with some light flurry activity mixed in before a big warm-up moves in for the weekend. The transition to warmer weather won’t be particularly graceful, however, as a howling southerly wind develops on Friday, making for a rather unpleasant shift.

The weather in Winnipeg through today and tomorrow will be dominated by the gradual arrival of a weak Arctic high that will slowly build southeastwards out of the Northwest Territories across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Weak is the key descriptor of this ridge; it will bring with it little in the way of cold air nor will it be able to muster up much clearing either.

That said, today’s weather will be relatively pleasant, all things considered. Skies will be mainly cloudy through the day with some occasional light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb a little bit from where we start off to about -10°C with fairly light winds throughout the day. Tonight will continue to bring mainly cloudy skies—although a few clear breaks are possible—and temperatures dipping down to about -18 or -19°C. If more clearing develops than is expected at this point, the overnight lows could dip closer to about -23°C.

Tomorrow will bring very gradual clearing to Winnipeg with the morning likely starting off fairly cloudy and slowly becoming mixed to mainly clear throughout the day as the Arctic ridge slides into the Red River Valley. With the arrival of that system, the daytime high tomorrow will be cooler at around -15°C with a light northerly wind. There’s a slight chance of some flurries through the early morning, but for the most part no precipitation is expected on Thursday. Expect a low on Thursday night near -21°C under partly cloudy to mixed skies.

Friday will be…unpleasant. As many who have lived in Winnipeg for a while know, whenever a big warm-up is on the way there is often "the day" before the warm weather arrives; a day where it’s rarely as nice as it sounds like it’s going to be and those famous southerly winter winds make an appearance. Friday will be that day.

As the Arctic ridge pushes past and moves to our southeast, it is quickly replaced by a strengthening low pressure system moving across the Prairies. As the low moves into eastern Saskatchewan and begins spreading warmer air aloft over Southern Manitoba, its relatively close proximity to the Arctic ridge will result in a tight pressure gradient over the Red River Valley, oriented very favourably for the development of strong southerly winds. While starting the day off light, the winds through the Red River Valley will increase to around 30 gusting 50 km/h by noon, and then further strengthen to 40-50km/h gusting to 70km/h by the evening hours.

GDPS MSLP & Surface Wind Forecast for Friday
The GDPS shows the strong southerly winds (emphasized in yellow) expected over the Red River Valley on Saturday.

Temperatures will gradually climb to around -12 or -11°C by late in the afternoon—although it will feel closer to -25 throughout much of the day due to the wind chill. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight as the warmer air finally begins working its way into the valley; by Saturday morning the temperature is expected to climb to about -8°C in Winnipeg.

With strong warm air advection aloft and the surface flow dominated but the outflow from an Arctic ridge, it’s likely that Friday will be fairly cloudy as stratus streams northwards out of the ridge.

Warm Weekend Ahead

This weekend looks beautiful with temperatures well above seasonal expected throughout the Red River Valley. In Winnipeg, the temperature is expected to climb all the way to around the freezing mark under mainly cloudy skies. Sunday looks fairly nice, perhaps evening bringing some sun to the region, with daytime high closer to the -5°C mark.

Temperatures are expected to return to seasonal values for the start of next week.