The temperatures look to remain above average for the start of this week as the storm track remains well to our north, and the cold Arctic air remains locked up to our north….for now.
Although today will be fairly warm, with a high near -5°C, the wind will be a factor in making it feel cooler than it actually is. Sustained southerly winds could reach 40km/h, with gusts in the 60km/h range tomorrow, in the afternoon and evening. The overnight low will be a fairly mild one, with temperatures only dipping to around -12°C.
The RDPS forecast shows a core of strong outflow winds running across the Northern Plains and through the Red River Valley into Manitoba on Monday afternoon.
Tomorrow looks to be more of the same temperature-wise, with temperatures reaching -6°C. The strong winds should ease up early in the morning – only reaching 10-15km/h on Tuesday. Skies should remain partly cloudy throughout the day, but overnight cloud cover will increase, associated with a system to our south.
On Wednesday cloud cover is expected to persist and even a few flakes are possible in the morning and early afternoon, but amounts won’t be significant. The high looks to be slightly cooler than previous days at around -8°C. North-easterly winds will be in place through the day but they won’t be very strong; only around 10km/h or so.
Long Range
Long range models are hinting at a possible snow event at the end of this week. Right now models show the bulk of the snow staying to the southeast of Winnipeg, into northwestern Ontario though. Unfortunately, cold Arctic air will be advected into our region behind this system, resulting in normal to below normal temperatures by the weekend.
Environment Canada made headlines with the special weather statement for Winnipeg issued Monday with a referential start: winter is coming. And how.
Today will mark the beginning of a harsh slide into winter after a essentially a month of temperatures well above seasonal for this time of year. The change in the pattern will be brought courtesy a rather peculiar weather setup that will see a relatively weak Colorado Low moving north through Minnesota into Northwestern Ontario merge together with an Alberta Clipper quickly moving eastwards across the Prairies. Each system is moderately potent in their own right, but when combined, they will form a new storm system that will rapidly intensify, driving strong northwesterly winds through the province alongside the first significant snowfall for many regions of Southern Manitoba.
Today will start deceptively. Relatively light winds and temperatures climbing towards 5 or 6°C will give a false sense of security betrayed only by the increasing cloud cover that will build in through mid-day into the afternoon. Some light rain will develop over the Red River Valley this afternoon, which will mark the end of our above-seasonal temperature streak and usher in winter. As the rain moves into the region, winds will pick up out of the northwest to around 50km/h sustained with gusts as high as 70–80km/h. The rain will switch over to snow sometime in the evening and likely begin piling up fairly quickly as the strong winds rapidly cool the ground and other surfaces.
The strong winds and snow will persist through tonight as temperatures dip down towards –3°C or so as colder air begins filtering into the region. With snow piling up and such strong winds in place over the Red River Valley, it’s quite likely that driving conditions become quite poor as roads freeze, become ice covered, and see reduced visibility in blowing snow.
AWM Snowfall Outlook issued November 18, 2015
Thursday will continue to bring light snow and strong winds to the region as temperatures remain around –4°C or so. The winds will be a bit lighter than at their peak, but will likely remain near the 40 gusting 60km/h mark through much of the day before beginning to taper off in the evening. Overnight, other than some lake-effect snow streaming southeastwards off of Lake Winnipeg, there’s likely to be just a few flurries lingering in the region. Temperatures will dip down to –6°C for the overnight low.
In general, around 5–10cm of snow is likely to fall with this system through southeastern Manitoba, the Red River Valley and northwestwards into Parkland Manitoba. Exact amounts will depend on the timing of the change-over from rain to snow and how quickly the snow begins accumulating instead of melting on the ground.
Friday will be a mainly cloudy day with just a very slight chance of light, scattered flurries. Temperatures will recover only a degree or two from the overnight low with highs around –4°C. There may be a few clear breaks through the Red River Valley on Friday night, but overall there will still be a fair amount of cloud as temperatures head towards an overnight low near –10 or –11°C.
Colder Weather Continues Through The Weekend
The cooler weather, which while a significant drop from what we’ve been experiencing is, in actuality, just a couple degrees below seasonal values for this time of year, will persist through the weekend.
The NAEFS is showing a trend towards seasonal temperatures for the remainder of November.
Daytime highs around –5 or –6°C will be in place over Winnipeg & the Red River Valley this weekend, with a chance of some more flurries on Saturday improving to sunnier fare on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low minus single digits. So, while it may be a huge change from the weather we’ve been having, we’ll be shifting to more seasonal weather for the end of November.
Grey and drizzly weather return today as a surge of moisture from the south generates an area of low cloud over southern Manitoba. It looks like we may see the sun again by midweek.
Monday will be overcast with periods of drizzle as a surge of moisture generates low cloud over southern Manitoba
Monday
Today will be a grey, dreary day in southern Manitoba. A strong push of low-level moisture from the south will generate a broad area of low-cloud, bringing periods of drizzle to southern Manitoba throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively mild, in the mid single digits, but with the drizzle and wind it won’t feel particularly comfortable. Wind speeds will be gusty, at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, out of the south-east.
Tuesday
Tuesday will see generally cloudy skies stick around in southern Manitoba, but we may see some clearing by late in the day. The flow will shift to westerly on Tuesday, allowing a drier airmass to move into the region. However, it doesn’t look like this drier air mass will arrive in time for us to see clear skies before sunset. Winds will be westerly at 20km/h with temperatures in the mid single digits.
Wednesday
We should finally see sunnier conditions on Wednesday as we sit between two approaching low pressure systems. Current forecast models suggest we’ll remain in a dry airmass for most of Wednesday, before the risk of precipitation increases again on Wednesday night. Winds should generally be light, with temperatures in the mid single digits.
Long Range
It looks like we’ll see a fairly stark change in the weather on Thursday as a powerful cold front ushers in a more arctic-like airmass. Very strong winds are expected on Thursday in the wake of this front along with decreasing temperatures. Unfortunately, we may see some accumulating snow with this system, though it’s too early to say how much can be expected. It still appears that the overall pattern will remain above normal for the foreseeable future, but as we move further into the winter season snow and cold are inevitable.
The weather will be relatively pleasant for late October over the next couple days with above-seasonal daytime highs expected and a fair amount of sunshine. Things will take turn on Friday for the end of the week as a Colorado Low sets its sights on Southern Manitoba and brings a decent shot of rain along with it.
Today will see the cloudy skies that start the day gradually break up and become mixed to partly cloudy. Winds will pick up through the morning and make for a fairly windy afternoon with gusty northwesterlies at 40–50km/h. Today’s daytime high near 12°C will be around 4–5°C above the normal daytime highs for this time of year. Heading into the evening, the winds will taper off and skies will clear as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the province. Expect an overnight low near –2°C.
Thursday will be quite a pleasant day with relatively light winds at 20–30km/h out of the southeast and a high once again near 12–13°C. Clouds will move in overnight as we head to a low near 5–6°C.
The GDPS is forecasting 10-15mm of rain over Southern Manitoba on Friday.
Friday will see the Colorado Low push into North Dakota and Minnesota, spreading an area of rain northwards into Southern Manitoba. There’s a surprising amount of agreement in the track of the low, but how much rain it will produce seems to be a tough topic. The Canadian Global model, pictured above, shows around 10–15mm through the day on Friday, however I think it’s a bit on the low side. My best forecast at this point is that 10–20mm of rain should be expected through the Red River Valley and southern Interlake on Saturday, however for areas in the RRV south of Winnipeg, particularly closer to the U.S. border, 15–25mm seems like a possibility depending on a number of factors.
Alongside the rain, our daytime high will climb to around 9°C. Winds won’t be too much of an issue and will remain relatively light out of the southeast switching to northwest in the evening. In the evening we’ll see the last of the rain taper off and head to a low near 4°C.
Cooler air looks to push in through the weekend behind the low, so enjoy the milder temperatures today and tomorrow!
