We’ll see one more nice day today before a potentially significant weather system affects us on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain and snow is expected in southern Manitoba with this system, but exact amounts remain unclear.
Today will be another very nice day. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens over much of southern Manitoba, allowing our snow melt to continue. Many rural parts of southern Manitoba are already snow-free, but there is still snow to melt in sheltered areas. Skies will be mainly sunny, with breezy south-east winds.
A major low pressure system will affect southern Manitoba this week
A major low pressure system is expected to affect southern Manitoba on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring a combination of rain and snow, which makes it difficult to forecast. At this time it appears that rain will be the main mode of precipitation over the Red River Valley. Models disagree widely on potential accumulation, so it is difficult to say exactly how much rain will fall. A “best guess” is that Winnipeg will see about 5-15 mm of rain. More or less rain could fall depending on how the system evolves.
We will continue to be under the influence of this system on Wednesday, but temperatures will fall as we experience a stiff north-westerly flow. As a result of this cold air surging in from the north, rain is expected to change over to snow, with a couple centimetres of accumulation being possible. The exact amount of snow will depend on how much the system stalls over our area and how much cold air manages to infiltrate southern Manitoba. High temperatures on Wednesday are currently expected to be near 2C, which would not favour large accumulations.
Long Range
The end of the week is expected to be colder as the system from earlier in the week pulls down colder air from the north. Longer range models suggest that the second half of March will see a cooler pattern with outbreaks of colder arctic air. However, if we remain mainly snow-free following this week’s system, it will be difficult for very cold conditions to last long as the darker soil will be able to absorb much more sunlight than snow would.
Today will mark the start of a prolonged spell of unseasonably warm weather for Southern Manitoba. A strong west-to-southwest flow aloft will begin building into the region today, ushering in much milder Pacific air which will help daytime highs climb above the freezing mark. The milder weather will bring unsettled weather with numerous chances for snow or rain along with the risk for freezing rain over the coming 3-5 days.
Today will bring soaring temperatures as gusty southerly winds develop and raise our temperatures from sub-minus 20 values this morning to around -4 or -3°C by the end of the day. While winds will be light early this morning, they will pick up towards midday to 30-40 km/h out of the south as the warm front towards the Red River Valley. As the warmer air advances eastwards, it will produce scattered flurries that will pass through much of the Red River Valley.
Temperatures will remain steady or drop slightly on Thursday night as more warm air surges northeastwards ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Any remaining flurry activity will taper off overnight, but by Thursday morning the potential for precipitation will return.
RDPS Precipitation Type Forecast for Thursday February 18, 2016
Thursday will be a mild but messy day. A low pressure system tracking across the Southern Prairies will spread a wintery mix of precipitation through the region with pretty much anything possible. With a high of just +1°C, much of the day will bring the potential for flurries or ice pellets, with the risk of freezing rain. At this point it doesn’t appear that amount will be too significant for the Red River Valley, but with a significant chance for freezing precipitation, we’ll be keeping close tabs on it.
Winds will be moderate throughout Thursday morning out of the southeast to about 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb to near the 0°C mark and then remain there through the remainder of Thursday and through Thursday night. The chance for any type of precipitation (flurries, freezing rain, rain showers) will likely continue through Thursday night.
Friday will see even warmer air push into the Red River Valley with a daytime high near +2°C expected. There will continue to be a chance for flurries in the morning transitioning to rain showers. Winds will remain light until later in the day when a weak cold front swings through and ushers in winds near 30km/h out of the west-northwest.
Long Range: Mild Weather Continues
Looking forward, it looks like the warmer temperatures will remain in place for a while yet. This weekend will remain warm with daytime highs near 0°C on Saturday and -5°C on Sunday, with chances for snow on both days.
CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Anomaly Outlook
Further on into next week, temperatures are forecast to continue above seasonal for this time of year as shown above in the CPC’s 6-10 day temperature outlook.
The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -8°C and the normal overnight low is -18°C.
Bitterly cold temperatures will be in place today as a strong Arctic ridge of high pressure moves through the region. This cold snap will be short-lived as warmer air begins moving into the region through the weekend; by Sunday, milder temperatures will be in place alongside some light snow.
Today will be, temperature-wise, the coldest day of the week as temperatures are held back by the breezy northwesterly winds of an advancing Arctic air mass. Temperatures will recover only a little bit as they struggle to climb to an afternoon high near -21°C before quickly beginning to drop as the sun goes down this evening.
Temperatures will plummet to the -30°C mark by Saturday morning as winds gradually diminish. Wind chills this morning as well as tonight will likely be flirting closely with the -40 mark. Environment Canada has issued an extreme cold warning for much of the province because of that.
Saturday may end up feeling like a colder day than Friday; while warmer temperatures may begin to work into the region, they’ll be accompanied by those famous winter southerlies that result in a fairly miserable transition day to warmer weather. While temperatures will rise towards -15°C by the end of the day, southerly winds will strengthen to around 40km/h making it feel significantly colder than it actually is. As a warm front begins moving into Manitoba later in the day, it will spread cloud cover into the Red River Valley and by mid-evening, it seems likely that skies will be mixed to cloudy with a chance of flurries. It will stay fairly windy through the night as temperatures continue to rise to around -12°C by Sunday morning.
A frontal wave will pass through Manitoba on Sunday brininging warmer weather and light snow.
Sunday will be significantly more pleasant as mild weather continues to move into the region. Temperatures will climb to near -6°C on Sunday afternoon with light winds and a good chance of light snow. No significant accumulations are expected with Sunday’s disturbance, although 1-2cm of snow could pile up locally. Temperatures will fall to just -9 or -10°C on Sunday night under cloudy skies.
Long Range: Generally Mild
Looking ahead into next week, it looks like Southern Manitoba is transitioning into a generally above-normal temperature pattern.
The CPC is calling for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day timeframe.
Milder Pacific air will be building into the province through much of next week. The start of next week will see a bit more variability in temperatures, with some days above normal and some below, but by the second half of the week there seems to be a fair amount of confidence of temperatures switching to a more persistent above-normal pattern. Current guidance places daytime highs near -5°C by the end of next week into the week after.
Through this period, no significant precipitation events are expected.
The normal daytime high for Winnipeg is currently -9°C and the normal overnight low is -19°C.
Warm weather is on the way for Winnipeg this weekend as a strong low pressure system developing over Northern Alberta spreads mild air eastwards through the Prairies. This storm system will then slide southeastwards across the Prairies, bringing a moderate snowfall event to Manitoba primarily through Saturday afternoon and Sunday, followed by falling temperatures, gusty winds and blowing snow.
Winnipeg will see mainly cloudy skies today as the city remains locked underneath a tight baroclinic zone. [1] There will be a continued chance of occasionally seeing some of the flurry activity that developed last night over the city, however no real accumulations of snow are expected today. Temperatures will be fairly pleasant with a daytime high near -6°C, which is 4°C above the normal high of -10°C for this time of year.
The chance for any flurry activity will diminish tonight, but the cloud will stick around as temperatures dip to around -11°C for the overnight low.
Storm System Moves in on Saturday
Saturday will bring the arrival of both warmer weather and the storm system that will bring a new batch of snow to the region. First the good news: temperatures will be on their way up through the entire day. From the morning low near -11°C, temperatures will gradually climb to near -5°C midday and then up to near -1°C by evening. Temperatures will then remain fairly steady through the night, wavering around the -1°C mark. Cooler air will begin working into the region on Sunday, dropping the temperatures in Winnipeg to around -8°C by the evening.
Updated AWM Snowfall Forecast for February 6/7, 2016 (Original here)
While some flurries are possible through the morning, the real snow will develop through the afternoon hours as the low centre of the storm begins moving into Southern Manitoba. Snow will intensify into the evening and the heaviest snow of the storm will be through Saturday night. On Sunday morning the snow will likely begin to ease, but continue to persist much of the day. By the time all is said and done, it looks quite likely that essentially all of Southern Manitoba will have seen at least 5cm of new snow before things taper off on Sunday night.
The heaviest amounts will fall to the north of the low track, which, given that it’s still a day and a half out, could change. The current agreement seems relatively dependable, however if it does end up shifting south even just a little, it’s possible that Winnipeg could surpass 10cm.
Although this system has the potential of producing a lot of snow, it doesn’t look like it will qualify for a snowfall warning from Environment Canada, which requires 10cm to fall within a 12hr. time period. This system will produce higher amounts more through it’s longer residency time than its intensity. That said, it’s still early for a lot of things with systems like these; we’ll be keeping an eye on it and updating forecasts if it looks like it’s going to change significantly from current expectations.
Lastly, there will be a bit of wind with this system too. Winds won’t be too bad on Saturday, however for a short while in the afternoon winds may climb up to around 30-40km/h out of the southeast. Winds will diminish overnight before picking up on Sunday out of the northwest. Blowing snow will be an issue on Sunday as the northwesterly winds increase to 40 gusting 60km/h and combine with the fresh snow. Through the Red River Valley, the strong winds will be in place by mid-day Sunday and persist into the late evening hours, so if you have plans to travel on Sunday afternoon or evening, prepare to give yourself some extra time to account for poor visibilities and driving conditions. For those reading this in southwestern Manitoba, the stronger winds will be in place by Sunday morning and persist into the overnight period as well, making blowing snow an issue all the way west into southeastern Saskatchewan.
Long Range: Colder Weather…But Only Briefly
Behind this storm system, cooler air will begin slumping into the Prairies, returning temperatures to seasonal values. Another batch of snow is possible Tuesday night as another disturbance moves through the region, which will usher in a pattern change that will see southwestern Manitoba clipped by several systems while even colder air works into the Prairies.
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Anomaly Forecast — Valid February 13-20, 2016
Into the second half of next week, below-seasonal temperatures will begin moving into the province with daytime highs slumping into the low minus teens and overnight lows dipping below -20°C. This cooler weather will likely persist into the early parts of the following week before a moderating trend begins, shown by the higher probabilities of cooler-than-normal weather in the NAEFS forecast above.
The seasonal daytime high for February 5th in Winnipeg is -10°C, while the seasonal overnight low is -21°C.
A baroclinic zone is an area where there is a strong temperature gradient across relatively short distances, either at the surface or aloft. ↩
