Tag: Windy

Grey Skies Return on Monday

Scott Leave a comment

Grey and drizzly weather return today as a surge of moisture from the south generates an area of low cloud over southern Manitoba. It looks like we may see the sun again by midweek.

Monday will be overcast with periods of drizzle as a surge of moisture generates low cloud over southern Manitoba
Monday will be overcast with periods of drizzle as a surge of moisture generates low cloud over southern Manitoba

Monday

Today will be a grey, dreary day in southern Manitoba. A strong push of low-level moisture from the south will generate a broad area of low-cloud, bringing periods of drizzle to southern Manitoba throughout the day. Temperatures will remain relatively mild, in the mid single digits, but with the drizzle and wind it won’t feel particularly comfortable. Wind speeds will be gusty, at 30km/h gusting to 50km/h, out of the south-east.

Tuesday

Tuesday will see generally cloudy skies stick around in southern Manitoba, but we may see some clearing by late in the day. The flow will shift to westerly on Tuesday, allowing a drier airmass to move into the region. However, it doesn’t look like this drier air mass will arrive in time for us to see clear skies before sunset. Winds will be westerly at 20km/h with temperatures in the mid single digits.

Wednesday

We should finally see sunnier conditions on Wednesday as we sit between two approaching low pressure systems. Current forecast models suggest we’ll remain in a dry airmass for most of Wednesday, before the risk of precipitation increases again on Wednesday night. Winds should generally be light, with temperatures in the mid single digits.

Long Range

It looks like we’ll see a fairly stark change in the weather on Thursday as a powerful cold front ushers in a more arctic-like airmass. Very strong winds are expected on Thursday in the wake of this front along with decreasing temperatures. Unfortunately, we may see some accumulating snow with this system, though it’s too early to say how much can be expected. It still appears that the overall pattern will remain above normal for the foreseeable future, but as we move further into the winter season snow and cold are inevitable.

Pleasant Fall Weather Gives Way to End of Week Rain

Brad Leave a comment

The weather will be relatively pleasant for late October over the next couple days with above-seasonal daytime highs expected and a fair amount of sunshine. Things will take turn on Friday for the end of the week as a Colorado Low sets its sights on Southern Manitoba and brings a decent shot of rain along with it.

Today will see the cloudy skies that start the day gradually break up and become mixed to partly cloudy. Winds will pick up through the morning and make for a fairly windy afternoon with gusty northwesterlies at 40–50km/h. Today’s daytime high near 12°C will be around 4–5°C above the normal daytime highs for this time of year. Heading into the evening, the winds will taper off and skies will clear as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the province. Expect an overnight low near –2°C.

Thursday will be quite a pleasant day with relatively light winds at 20–30km/h out of the southeast and a high once again near 12–13°C. Clouds will move in overnight as we head to a low near 5–6°C.

Forecast 12hr. precipitation accumulations for Friday from the GDPS
The GDPS is forecasting 10-15mm of rain over Southern Manitoba on Friday.

Friday will see the Colorado Low push into North Dakota and Minnesota, spreading an area of rain northwards into Southern Manitoba. There’s a surprising amount of agreement in the track of the low, but how much rain it will produce seems to be a tough topic. The Canadian Global model, pictured above, shows around 10–15mm through the day on Friday, however I think it’s a bit on the low side. My best forecast at this point is that 10–20mm of rain should be expected through the Red River Valley and southern Interlake on Saturday, however for areas in the RRV south of Winnipeg, particularly closer to the U.S. border, 15–25mm seems like a possibility depending on a number of factors.

Alongside the rain, our daytime high will climb to around 9°C. Winds won’t be too much of an issue and will remain relatively light out of the southeast switching to northwest in the evening. In the evening we’ll see the last of the rain taper off and head to a low near 4°C.

Cooler air looks to push in through the weekend behind the low, so enjoy the milder temperatures today and tomorrow!

A Quick Return to Seasonal Conditions; Windy End of Weekend

Brad 1 Comment

Today is off to a cold start after a cold front passed through the Red River Valley yesterday morning, ushering in winds up to 70km/h and some mixed-phased showers as the cooler air mass moved into the region. The cool-down will be short-lived, fortunately, as seasonal to above-seasonal temperatures will return for today & through the weekend.

Today and tomorrow’s dominant weather feature will be a ridge of high pressure that will move through the region over the coming two days. With it in place, daytime highs will be cool at a seasonal or slightly below-seasonal 9–10°C. Winds will be light, and both tonight and tomorrow night will see overnight lows dipping below the freezing mark to around –2°C.

GDPS Surface Wind Forecast for 18Z Sunday October 18, 2015
The GDPS surface wind forecast for midday Sunday shows a core of stronger winds as a result of the outflow from the ridge of high pressure to the east.

Sunday will see a sunny start to the day, but a bit of cloud push in for the evening and overnight hours. The biggest weather issue of the day will be strong southerly winds that develop as surface winds accelerate out of the ridge of high pressure to our east and are aided by the strong temperature gradient as warmer air moves in aloft.[1] As such, winds will increase–likely midday–to around 40–50km/h out of the south with some gustiness on top of it. It won’t be severe-level winds, but it will certainly be a windy fall day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer at around 14°C, kept lower than the air moving in over us would suggest by the cool outflow winds at the surface.

The winds will taper off in the evening and temperatures will head to around 6°C for an overnight low under partly cloudy skies.

The Week Ahead

Next week is looking fairly unremarkable for the most part. There appears to be a slight chance of some rain mid-week, and other than that, it’s nothing but sunny to partly cloudy skies and seasonal to slightly above-seasonal temperatures. Lovely weather for the second half of October.

  1. Additionally, multiple models indicate the likelihood of enhanced anticyclonic curvature to the pressure gradient over the Red River Valley which, if true, will act to enhance the wind speeds.  ↩

Mild Weather Gives Way to Blustery Cold Front

Brad Leave a comment

The warmer-than-seasonal warmth in place over Southern Manitoba will last just one more day before a cooler air mass works its way into the region behind a cold front that will push through on Thursday.

Today will bring seasonal weather to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley, albeit with a bit of a breezy wind. Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature will climb to around 15°C, which is nearly 5°C above the seasonal average high of 11°C for this time of year. Winds will pick up through the day and be fairly windy out of the northwest with sustained winds climbing to 30–40km/h with gusts to around 50km/h.

Temperatures will dip to around 4–5°C tonight with skies becoming partly cloudy before morning.

Thursday will be quite an unpleasant day that will see a cold frontal passage that will bring in blustery winds and falling temperatures. The day will start off with partly cloudy skies and temperatures climbing to around 10–11°C by midday. Winds will be windy out of the northwest at around 30km/h with some gustiness on top of that. As the cold front passes through in the afternoon, we’ll see mixed-to-cloudy skies develop with a very slight chance of some showers along the front as it passes through. No significant accumulations are expected. Winds will remain blustery with winds remaining at 30–40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h.

Animated 850mb Temperature Forecast for Thursday
Looking at the forecast 850mb temperatures, the passage of the cold front on Thursday is quite obvious.

As the front passes through, temperatures will drop to around 6°C in the Red River Valley. They’ll continue to drop as winds taper off and skies clear, heading towards an overnight low near –2°C.

Friday will be a pleasant, but cool, day. Winds won’t be much of an issue and temperatures will climb to around 7°C under mainly sunny skies. The low on Friday night will once again be around –2°C under clear skies.

Unremarkable Weekend Ahead

Looking ahead to the weekend, there doesn’t appear to be much to say about it. Through the weekend temperatures will climb back towards seasonal values with a bit of wind on Sunday. No significant precipitation is in store for the region.

Next week looks to have a bit of variability to daytime highs and a couple chances for rain as a slightly more unsettled pattern develops.