We’ll have a warm, but windy, Monday before another arctic cold front comes through, returning below-normal temperatures to the region.
Monday will be warm and windy as strong southerlies develop
Monday
-6°C / -18°C
Mainly sunny
Today will be warm, but windy as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of a cold front. Wind speeds will be 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, making it feel significantly colder than it will actually be. High temperatures in the mid to upper minus single digits will end up feeling more like -15 to -20 when you factor in the wind.
Tuesday
-16°C / -24°C
Mainly cloudy with flurries
An arctic cold front will move through early on Tuesday, ushering in colder weather once again. As the cold front goes through we’ll also see some flurries, but accumulations will be small. Wind speeds will really pick up in association with this front, with north-west winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h for much of the day. This will send wind chill values close to -30.
Wednesday
-21°C / -28°C
Mix of sun and cloud with chance of flurries
Wednesday will be even colder than Tuesday as arctic air becomes entrenched in southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be near -20, with the wind chill making it feel more like the -30s. We may also see some light flurries throughout the day as the low-levels of the atmosphere become unstable.
Long Range
Long range models suggest we’ll begin to see more frequent warm weather by next weekend. This will be the result of a western ridge extending further east into Manitoba. That doesn’t mean all the snow is suddenly going to disappear, but it will certainly be more pleasant. March 1 was the beginning of meteorological spring, so it’s just a matter of time before spring actually arrives!
Cooler weather will stick around for a few more days in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley until warmer air begins working its way across the Prairies next week. Fortunately, things will feel nicer on the weekend as the gusty winds that have been around for a couple days subside into a cool but calm weekend.
The coming days will be dominated by one last big Arctic ridge moving into the region. Daytime highs will peak at –18°C today and slide towards –23 or –22°C by Sunday, with overnight lows dropping towards –30°C on Saturday night before warmer air begins making its way into the region on Sunday night. Skies will start off partly cloudy to mixed today with a slight chance of some scattered flurry activity, and then gradually clear out for a mainly sunny weekend. Winds will be breezy today at around 30–40km/h with some local blowing snow possible in the rural areas of the Red River Valley, but will diminish tonight to fairly light through the weekend.
Warming Up Next Week
As we mentioned earlier in the week, it still continues to appear that a fairly significant warm-up is in our future.
The NAEFS 8–14 day temperature anomaly outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures returning to much of North America.
Both the NAEFS pictured above as well as the American CPC 6–10 Day Outlook are forecasting a strong likelihood of above-normal temperatures returning to our region. Specific solutions vary quite a bit, but in general it appears that a big warm-up is on tap through the second half of next week with temperatures rising into the –5 to 0°C range. Quite warm air is forecast to move into the region aloft, and with no blocking ridge forecast to develop to our east and a generally more progressive flow, there’s even a slight chance that we might see warmth and sun, which would certainly be a pleasant recovery from the past cold snap.
Given that we’re nearly past the coldest part of the year and I can still remember how nice December was temperature-wise, I think it’s safe to say that this winter is a far cry from the brutal cold we had last year.
Manitobans can enjoy slight relief from the bitter cold that has been in place the last few days as more seasonal temperatures are in place thanks to a fairly large low pressure system passing through Hudson Bay that has dragged the warm air all the way east from the Rocky Mountains. Unfortunately, the milder weather will be short lived as a series of cold fronts sweep southwards into the United States ushering the colder air back into the region.
Wednesday
-11°C / -17°C
Mixed skies with a slight chance of flurries
Thursday
-14°C / -17°C
Increasing cloud
Friday
-15°C / -19°C
Partly cloudy
Temperatures will climb to around –11°C today with mixed skies as a warm front slides through the region from the northwest. There will be a slight chance of flurries, particularly first thing in the morning and again in the evening into the overnight period, but otherwise it will be a seasonally nice day with westerly winds at 30–40km/h. Expect temperatures to drop to around –17°C tonight.
Thursday will be a bit of an in between day; a weak cold front passing through will bring daytime highs cooler than Wednesday – somewhere around –14°C or so – and a fairly sunny start to the day. By the afternoon, more cloud should begin working its way in from the west alongside the next low approaching from Saskatchewan. Little in the way of snow is expected here on Thursday or Thursday night and winds will be relatively light. Temperatures will dip back down to –17°C once again on Thursday night.
Friday will be the sunniest day of the second half of the week. A slight chance of some morning flurries will quickly clear out as we head to a high of around –15°C with light winds. However, a storm is brewing, and by Friday evening an Alberta clipper will be making its way into Southern Manitoba, set to pack a compact wallop as it moves through Friday night and Saturday.
End-of-Week Alberta Clipper Brings Winter Storm to Manitoba
An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track across Southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday, bringing with it a significant shot of snow, strong winds, and then a plummet back into frigid Arctic air.
Note: Alberta clippers are compact systems whose impact depends significantly on their track. As we’re still several days out from this system, please take the following as just general guidance and remember that with a slight change in track, significant changes in the weather could be seen for any one location.
Snow will spread eastwards into southwestern Manitoba and the Parkland region on Friday evening, progressing across the remainder of the province through the evening hours. A relatively sharp deformation zone will set up across the Parkland & Interlake regions, limiting the northward extent of the snow. While many regions will see accumulating snow, the greatest amounts will be along the Trans-Canada corridor and the western escarpment of the Red River Valley.
First-guess snowfall amounts for the upcoming storm system this weekend.
By the time the snow stops on Saturday evening, around 10–15cm of snow may have fallen in a large swath encompassing much of the Trans-Canada corridor and areas south to the U.S. border. An area of higher snowfall will likely develop somewhere near the US border, perhaps just south into North Dakota, depending significantly on where & when the system pivots and begins heading E/NE instead of SE. In the core of heaviest snowfall, as much as 15–25cm of snowfall looks possible. Much of the Parkland and southern Interlake will see between 4–8cm, with amounts tapering off fairly quickly north of that.
In addition to the snow, this system will have fairly strong winds associated with it. Ahead of the low, easterly to northeasterly winds will strengthen to a gusty 30–40km/h. As the system passes through, winds will strengthen out of the northwest to around 50km/h with gusts as high as 70–75km/h. The strong northwesterly winds coupled with the ample fresh snow will likely produce blizzard conditions and make travel dangerous on Saturday. If you have travel plans, make a plan B in case this forecast happens to be right.
Temperatures will reach a high around –15°C on Saturday and then plummet to around –30°C on Saturday night with wind chill values near –45. Sunday looks clear and bitterly cold with a high of only around –26°C coupled with 20–30km/h winds that will produce wind chill values in the –35 to –40 range. If these wind chill values materalize, we’ll likely see extreme cold warnings issued for much of Southern Manitoba through the weekend.[1]
As mentioned, there is potentially significant variability to this forecast and what I’ve presented is the current most likely scenario. I’ll be keeping tabs on this system through the week and provide updates in the comments below and another full look at it in Friday morning’s blog post.
If the extreme cold occurs while blizzard conditions are ongoing, the blizzard warning would “include” the extreme cold. ↩
Seasonal weather will be in place over the Red River Valley this weekend with dry conditions and comparatively mild temperatures.
Friday
-9°C / -14°C
Mixed skies and breezy
Saturday
-6°C / -8°C
Increasing cloud with late-day wind
Sunday
-3°C / -9°C
Cloudy and mild
Today will be the least pleasant day of the weekend with temperatures climbing to around -9°C with somewhat gusty northwesterly winds – around 30km/h with gusts closer to the 40-50km/h mark – ushering cooler air than we had yesterday. While we’ll see a fair amount of cloud today clearing out in the afternoon, no snow is expected. Temperatures will dip to the mid-minus teens tonight as winds taper off.
Saturday looks like a fairly pleasant day. A ridge of high pressure over the region will bring mainly sunny skies and a high near -6°C. Winds will begin picking up out of the south a little later in the day, making it feel a bit colder but limiting our overnight low to just around -8°C or so. Some light snow is possible late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours ahead of a warm front gradually lifting northwards through the night.
Sunday will be a very mild day that starts off with somewhat unpleasant southeasterly winds. By late morning or early afternoon it looks like the winds will die off and the temperature will climb to a very balmy high of around -2 or -3°C. Some snow is possible in the afternoon, but it looks like the bulk of the precipitation will remain to the north and east of the Red River Valley, with just a light dusting of snow possible. Temperatures on Sunday night continue mild with lows near -9°C.
Pattern Change Next Week Brings More Mild Weather
As we mentioned earlier this week, a major pattern shift covering much of North America will occur through the early half of next week that will move most of the continent into an above-average temperature regime for an extended duration.
The general gist of the pattern evolution is this: over the next few days, a very strong frontal zone over the northern Pacific will shift eastwards alongside a train of upper-level disturbances reflected at the surface by a very intense low pressure system – bottoming out today at 950mb or so. This intense low will become stacked east of the Aleutians and absorb several weaker, more disorganized disturbances, becoming a very impressive, large storm over the northeastern Pacific. This intense system will build an upper-level ridge over western North America, beginning the push of warm air. The second key ingredient is the evolution of the polar vortex that has been anchored over Hudson Bay for the last few weeks.
By this weekend, shown here in the GDPS 500mb height & vorticty forecast, several very potent low pressure systems – marked by the letter L – will begin building a ridge over western North America while the polar vortex – shown by “PV” – begins a slow trek eastwards.
Fortunately, a powerful low pressure system heading up the east coast with teleconnections to the polar vortex will help “push” the vortex from its resting place and rapidly shunt it eastwards over Greenland. This is the second key ingredient because the polar vortex over Hudson Bay[1] is what anchors the eastern Prairies into a northwesterly to northerly flow for such long periods of time, reinforcing colder air and shunting warmer air to our south. With the vortex skipping town, the arctic jet stream will retreat northwards and the warm air spreading northeastwards with the upper ridge will be able to spread eastwards across the Prairies unhindered.
It’s a very interesting situation that highlights how stable the ridge-trough pattern that is so common is; in order for us to be kicked out of this pattern that has brought us a very cold November, we need very potent, significant storms on both coasts at the same time disrupting the upper-level pattern enough to get things moving again.
Within the warming pattern, we’ll see relatively warm and cool spells as disturbances ripple across the Prairies , but overall it looks quite dry in the Red River Valley as daytime highs climb into the -5 to 0°C through the second half of next week with the possibility of above-zero temperatures late into the week through the weekend. different from
Its worth noting given how much press the term “polar vortex” gets lately that this is a completely normal feature that is dominant over Hudson Bay for huge swaths of winter every single year. ↩
