Tag: Windy

A Reprieve From The Cold

Brad Leave a comment

A breakdown in the upper-level ridge over Western North America that has locked Manitoba into an unseasonably cold regime for the past 10 days will result in a significant shift in the weather for the coming weekend as warmer air finally makes its way inland from the Pacific coast. The weekend is set to end with a bang as a low pressure system taps into the warmer air and brings the first major widespread snowfall event to the Prairies.

Friday
-3°C / -5°C
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light late-day flurries
Saturday
-1°C / -4°C
Mostly cloudy
Sunday
0°C / -13°C
Mainly cloudy; snow possible

Today will be one of those slightly unpleasant transition days into a warmer air mass being brought into the region by a low pressure system tracking across the Central Prairies. Southerly winds to 30-40km/h with gusts up to around 50km/h will make things feel a bit chilly, even though we see a warmer-than-anything-recently high near -3°C or so. If the winds manage to shift more southwesterly, then we could see several degrees added onto that high, jumping up to 0 or +1°C, however the deep layer of cold air and outflow from the ridge to our southeast will likely keep things on the cooler side.

There will be a slight chance of flurries late this afternoon into early this evening as the warm front passes by. Otherwise tonight will see mostly cloudy skies as temperatures drop to around -5°C.

Saturday looks like a fairly quiet day. Mostly cloudy skies, light winds and a high near -1°C will make for a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will drop to around -4°C under cloudy skies and increasing east-southeasterly winds.

Sunday Brings Major Snowfall to Portions of Southern Manitoba

An updated snowfall forecast and look at this weekend’s snow is available in the comments below.

A low pressure system tracking along the International border is set to bring a substantial snowfall to portions of the Parkland & Interlake regions as a weak inverted trough persists through the region for much of the day. Snow is expected to push into Western Manitoba late Saturday and spread eastwards into the Interlake and onwards across the lakes into eastern Manitoba by Sunday morning.

A Weather Moment snowfall forecast for November 22-23, 2014. Up to 20cm of snow is possible through portions of Southern Manitoba.
A Weather Moment snowfall forecast for November 22-23, 2014. Up to 20cm of snow is possible through portions of Southern Manitoba.

Snowfall will be fairly heavy at times, and in general amounts will likely fall into the 10-15cm amount for a large swath from Dauphin to The Pas extending eastwards. For portions of the Swan River region eastwards through the northern Interlake and into Berens River, slightly higher amounts will likely be seen with up to 20cm possible.

Further south in the Red River Valley, some light snow is likely, however there’s some considerable uncertainty in how the evolution of this system will take place which is resulting in quite a spread of results. The general consensus at the moment is that little snow will be seen with amounts generally less than 2cm on Sunday, however some guidance suggests that strong low-level instability and strong lift behind the passage of the cold front in the afternoon could result in fairly intense snow over the region.

As we get closer to the event, we’ll be able to refine this forecast a little more, particularly for the Red River Valley.

Other than the snow, Sunday will be fairly mild with a high near 0°C in Winnipeg while winds starting off relatively light out of the east-southeast backing to northwesterly at a gusty 30-40km/h with some blowing snow in rural areas by Sunday evening. Much cooler air will push in through Sunday night which should allow the overnight low to drop into the minus teens.

Next week looks to start off a little unsettled with some flurries hanging on in Southern Manitoba while another shot of Arctic air begins working into the region.

Another Blustery Day Leads Towards a Pattern Change

Brad Leave a comment

Today will be yet another blustery day in the Red River Valley as strong northwesterly winds sit over the region behind a low pressure system that passed through overnight. Blowing snow will be an issue in some rural areas, however little new snow and a couple days of compaction since Sunday’s snowfall should result in less blowing snow than was seen then. After one last shot of cold air settling over Southern Manitoba tonight, the large-scale pattern looks set to change and allow slightly milder air back into the region.

Wednesday
-9°C / -19°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries; windy with local blowing snow
Thursday
-10°C / -16°C
Mainly sunny
Friday
-5°C / -9°C
Mostly cloudy and breezy

Today’s most significant weather will be the strong northwesterly winds in place through the whole Red River Valley. Gusting as high as 60-70km/h, the strong winds will make the high of -9 or -8°C feel much colder with wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range. Blowing snow will be a bit of an issue in rural areas, however with little new snow and some time for Sunday’s snow to settle, reduced visibilities in blowing snow should be much less an issue today than it was for the end of the weekend. No significant accumulations are expected today in the Red River Valley, however there may be an isolated band of higher amounts in the lee of Lake Winnipeg.[1]

Tonight will see skies clear and winds taper off as temperatures dip down to a “chilliest-this-season” low near -19 or -20°C.

After a chilly start, Thursday will be another cool day. Fortunately, light winds will make things feel not nearly as bad as Wednesday as temperatures climb towards a high near -10°C. Skies will remain mainly clear[2] on Thursday night as temperatures dip down to around -16°C.

Big Warm-Up in Store for End of Week

After a considerable amount of time with below-normal temperatures, things look set to switch around dramatically on Friday as the upper-level ridge that’s been in place for much of November over British Columbia completely collapses and a zonal flow brings milder temperatures eastwards across the Prairies.

The 850mb temperature & wind forecast for Thursday evening show a clear warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies.
The 850mb temperature & wind forecast for Thursday evening show a clear warm front pushing eastwards across the Prairies.

The milder air will bring a fair amount of cloud cover with it as it spreads eastwards, resulting in a mostly cloudy day in Winnipeg as temperatures climb to a relatively balmy -5°C or so. Unfortunately, with all the mild air attempting to move in, strong southerly winds to around 40-50km/h will likely develop, keeping things feeling cooler than it would otherwise. There may be a slight chance of some light flurry activity in the Red River Valley along the warm front in the afternoon, but at this point it looks insignificant.

Mild air will continue to push eastwards on Friday night, and the Red River Valley should find itself into the warm sector of this low pressure system. As a result, overnight lows will be considerably warmer than we’ve seen lately. Expect temperatures to drop to around -8 to -10°C on Friday night under partly cloudy skies.

Mild Weekend Ahead

We should see more pleasant weather on Saturday with a fair amount of sunshine and lighter winds as the temperature climbs to around -4°C.[3] Sunday continues the mild trend, however the milder temperatures will be sustained by a low pressure system tracking along the U.S. border.

The GDPS 12hr. precipitation accumulation for Sunday morning to evening shows a large swath of snowfall through Western Manitoba & the Interlake, just brushing the northern Red River Valley.
The GDPS 12hr. precipitation accumulation for Sunday morning to evening shows a large swath of snowfall through Western Manitoba & the Interlake, just brushing the northern Red River Valley.

This system looks like it has the potential to bring a swath of 10+cm of snow to the Interlake westwards towards the terrain west of lakes Winnipegosis and Manitoba. Given how far out this system is, there’s a lot of details up in the air[4] and slight variations in track or intensity could dramatically shift/impact the snow event. We’ll be keeping an eye on it, but for now just keep it in the back of your head that the weekend could be ending with what could be the heaviest large-scale snow event so far this season.

  1. Very little is expected in the way of lake-induced flurry activity to the lee of lake Manitoba now that it’s mainly ice covered.  ↩
  2. Much of the night should be mainly clear, however some cloud may sneak in late in the overnight period associated with Friday’s system.  ↩
  3. The potential for highs closer to -2 or -1°C exists, but I’d rather wait until closer before getting anybody’s hopes up.  ↩
  4. Rimshot  ↩

Winter’s Blustery Arrival

Brad Leave a comment

A storm system tracking through Manitoba today will bring one last shot of warmer weather alongside some rain before a major pattern shift plunges much of central and eastern North America into a substantial outbreak of Arctic air.

This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Friday: Windy and Rainy Afternoon

Friday
8°C / -5°C
Rain ending early this morning; windy with showers this afternoon

Today will start off with overnight rain tapering off fairly early in the morning; the temperature will start off around 2°C and climb to a high of 7 or 8°C under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight chance of a few sunny breaks in the morning to midday, but it won’t take too long until the cold front comes sweeping through the Red River Valley.

Winds will strengthen dramatically out of the northwest through the afternoon from nearly calm winds at lunch time to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Along with the strong winds, a band of showers will move through with just a few mm expected. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front heading to a low of around -5°C tonight.[1]

Lake-effect snow may rear its head as well tonight as the northwesterlies bring the significantly cooler air over the still-open lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see lake-effect snow develop sometime late in the evening through the overnight period. It looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the lake-effect activity, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop this evening.

Significantly Cooler Weekend

Saturday
-2°C / -6°C
Mixed skies, breezy and cool
Sunday
-2°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny

The weekend ahead will be marked by the beginning of a move into a much cooler air mass. Saturday will be a breezy, cool day with northwesterly winds 20-30km/h and a high near -2°C. Winnipeg will sit near the northern edge of a large bank of cloud stretching through Saskatchewan into North Dakota & Minnesota, which should result in mainly cloudy skies. A few sunny breaks are likely, however if things shift a bit further south the day could end up being a whole lot sunnier.

Under any of the cloud stretching through the Red River Valley, some very light flurry activity is possible. No accumulations are expected.

Temperatures will drop to around -6°C under clearing skies on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and lighter winds as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. We had mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in our last post, but as suspected all models are now pushing it well to our south. Expect a daytime high near -2°C and an overnight low near -9°C.

Even Colder Weather Next Week

Unfortunately, even colder weather is expected to move into the region next week, driving temperatures well below the seasonal high of around 0°C.[2]

The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.

A prominent upper-level trough will dig over the eastern United States next week, developing a pipeline of Arctic air straight from the North Pole into the central United States. Expect highs in the mid-minus single digits and lows near -10°C or so. No major systems are forecast to track through, and it appears that most snow that may show up will either be lake-effect or general light flurry activity. The lack of snow cover should help our temperatures from dropping too far, particularly at night.

  1. Plus or minus a degree or two depending exactly on cloud cover.  ↩
  2. Although one could say that in Novemeber, more than most months, “seasonal” or “normal” temperatures are just an average of extremes.  ↩

Chilly Halloween in the Red River Valley

Brad Leave a comment

A very cool Halloween evening is ahead in the Red River Valley thanks to a large high pressure system from the Arctic that will slowly move out of the province through the day. Unfortunately, as it begins to move out this evening, a fairly breezy southerly wind will develop and make things feel even colder than they already are.

Friday
2°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny and cool; becoming windy through the afternoon

Saturday
4°C / -2°C
Cloudy periods and breezy

Sunday
8°C / 2°C
Mixed to cloudy skies

Today will be a very chilly day with temperatures struggling to reach a daytime high of just 1 or 2°C thanks to a substantial amount of colder air that has pushed into the province with an Arctic ridge that’s moving through. Winds won’t be too bad this morning, but through the afternoon – as the ridge moves southeastwards into Minnesota and NW Ontario – southerly winds will strengthen to about 30km/h with gusts to around 50km/h.

Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.
Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.

Temperatures will quickly drop to just below freezing this evening which, when combined with the ≥ 30km/h winds, will feel closer to the -8 to -10°C range. For anyone heading out, it will be quite a cool evening and be sure to bring some gloves and toques to keep warm.

Temperatures will drop to around -3°C overnight with the wind persisting.

Warming Through the Weekend

Temperatures will slowly climb as warmer air begins working into Manitoba from the west. Saturday will be another windy day with southerly winds at 30-40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. The temperature will climb to around 4°C for a high, but will certainly feel cooler than that with the strong winds. There will be a few clouds through the day, but it will be a relatively sunny day overall. The temperature will drop to around -2°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring the warmest weather in a while with temperatures climbing into the upper single digits. Winds will be lighter than Friday or Saturday which will make that warmer temperature feel more pleasant. Skies will be much cloudier and there may even be a very slight chance of a shower. Sunday night will see temperatures drop to 1 or 2°C with an increased chance of some shower activity.

Unsettled Week Ahead

The warmth and cloud reaching us by the end of the weekend is thanks to a developing low pressure system in Montana that is forecast to push into Manitoba early next week. There’s significant uncertainty to where and/or how much precipitation will fall, but at this point it looks like Winnipeg will see some share of the unsettled weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures for much of the week look to be near-normal[1] but there are hints that a significant low pressure system is possible at the end of the week that could bring Southern Manitoba its first wintery blast of the year. A lot can change between now and then, though, so we’ll just keep an eye on things for now and enjoy the warmer end to the weekend ahead!

  1. Normal daytime highs heading into the beginning of November are around 3 or 4°C.  ↩