Cool Weather Edges Back Towards Seasonal

The shot of cool air that worked its way into Winnipeg in a somewhat unwelcome fashion yesterday will remain entrenched over the region for the next few days, resulting in seasonal to just below seasonal temperatures heading towards Halloween. Fortunately, the weather looks to be drier, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much more of the white stuff.

Wednesday
4°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries
Thursday
2°C / -6°C
Partly cloudy and cool
Friday
4°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon

Today will remain mainly cloudy but, unlike yesterday, our temperatures should manage to sneak just a little bit higher, to around 4 or 5°C[1] with substantially calmer winds. A weak low pressure system skirting along the U.S. border will bring a slight chance of showers to areas in the vicinity, but it looks like rain will likely remain States-side. A chilly night ahead tonight as some of the cloud starts clearing out and we head to a low of around -1°C.

Thursday will be a cool day as an Arctic ridge builds southeastwards into the province. Skies will be partly cloudy with no real chance of precipitation and it will be quite cool as temperatures are only expected to climb to 1 or 2°C. The overnight low will dip down to a very chilly -6 or -7°C under mainly clear skies. Thursday night looks like the low point for our temperatures over the next while.

A Chilly Halloween

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday but it will still be a chilly Halloween evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but as the Arctic ridge slides off to our east and another low pressure system begins approaching from the west, more cloud will begin pushing in from the west. The temperature will climb to around 4°C by the afternoon and, thanks to the increasing cloud, gradually cool off through the evening.

Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.
Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.

Alongside the increasing cloud coverage will come gradually increasing winds. While early in the evening they’ll be only around 15-20km/h, the wind will gradually increase to 30 gusting 50km/h by mid-evening and then further increasing to 40 gusting 60km/h by late in the evening. The temperature will drop to around -2°C overnight. The wind will make it feel rather cool, despite the fairly seasonal temperatures expected.

Unsettled Weekend

The weekend looks somewhat unpleasant as warmer air tries to work its way back into the province. Saturday looks quite windy and fairly cloudy as temperatures climb into the upper single-digits. Sunday brings some uncertainty as a larger system develops in the northern United States and lifts northeastwards. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, however it is possible that it ends up being a fairly rainy day. There’s significant disagreement with the models on the timing of this system, though; some bring rain in early on Sunday while others delay the rain until Monday. We’ll be sure to keep an eye on this system as it develops and we’ll take a closer look at it in Friday’s post!


  1. Seasonal highs for late October in Winnipeg sit near 5°C.  ↩

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 26th, 2014

Vancouver Sees Significant Rain Event

The city of Vancouver has seen its fair share of rainfall this past week, causing flooding problems throughout the metro. What was to blame for this event was an atmospheric river that came onshore the BC Coast, aided by a large upper level trough off the West Coast on Wednesday. Atmospheric rivers are narrow plumes of significant moisture which originate from the subtropics and flow from the southwest onto the shores of the west coast. On Wednesday morning fairly high PWAT[1]
values (>1”), a product of the atmospheric river, nosed into the Vancouver region which set the stage for the heavy rainfall event.

Atmospheric river making its way onto Vancouver island. (Source: Twisterdata)
Atmospheric river (high PWAT values) making its way onto Vancouver island. (Source: Twisterdata)

The rainfall started early Wednesday morning for Vancouver, including a thunderstorm that went through the city around 7am dropping heavy rain. With already saturated soil from the rain earlier in the week, flooding problems ensued. Metro Vancouver saw anywhere between 20-35mm, and pockets of locally higher amounts Wednesday. This event comes a day after the same system offshore brought very strong winds (gusts >100km/h) to Vancouver Island as well as downing power lines and snapping trees in metro Vancouver. It was reported that Tuesday night a total of 80,000 people in southern BC were without power at some time.

Flooding in Port Moody, just east of Vancouver, on Wednesday. (Source: Port Moody Fire Rescue)
Flooding in Port Moody, just east of Vancouver, on Wednesday. (Source: Port Moody Fire Rescue)

As this mid-week system departs, it makes way for the next system upcoming system this weekend. This will be yet another fairly strong system to impact the west coast, bringing with it more heavy rains and strong northwest winds. Unfortunately, unsettled weather is expected to last for the Vancouver region into next week.


  1. PWAT stands for precipitable water, a measure of the amount of water contained in a column of air.  ↩

Temperatures To Remain Above-Normal Despite Cool Down

A cold front passing through Southern Manitoba later today will usher in cooler air, but temperatures will only dip slightly and remain above-normal through the weekend.

Friday
16°C / 5°C
Mixed skies; windy in the afternoon

Saturday
11°C / 2°C
Mainly sunny

Sunday
12°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy wiht a chance of showers

Friday Brings Blustery Winds

Today will be a warm day across the Red River Valley with daytime highs in the 15–16°C range – around 8°C above the normal daytime high of 7°C – under mixed skies trending towards cloudier this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient coupled with an advancing cold front will bring fairly gusty winds into the province this afternoon, with southerly winds shifting to westerly-to-northwesterly and increasing in speed to 35–45km/h with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. No precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front.

The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Temperatures will drop to around 5°C tonight under clearing skies.

Mixed Weekend Ahead

Saturday is shaping up to be a very nice day with a few clouds, diminishing winds and a high near 11°C. Saturday night should bring clear skies and a low near 2°C.

Sunday will see a warm front lift into the Red River Valley, resulting in a mainly cloudy day with a chance of showers as the front moves through; it’s looking like the rain potential is in the afternoon at this point. Expect a high in the low teens alongside some breezy southeasterly or easterly winds moving towards an overnight low around 5°C.

Warm, Windy Weekend

Southern Manitoba will continue to see a gradual improvement temperature-wise, and even start creeping into the above normal temperature range this weekend as a southerly flow kicks in. The one caveat is that winds will be fairly strong on Saturday and Sunday, so hold onto your hats!

Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Tight gradient between the low over the northern MB/SK border and high pressure to our southeast will make for warm, gusty conditions on Saturday.
Friday
10°C / 2°C
Becoming mainly sunny late in the morning

High pressure to the southeast will make for calm conditions today, with mostly clear conditions and slightly below seasonal temperatures. Throughout the day the ridge will continue to shift eastward, making way for the next system arriving this weekend. With most of the cloud clearing out by late morning, giving way to sunshine it should turn out to be a fairly nice day with a tinge of chill in the air, as temperatures approach the 10°C mark. By the time Friday night rolls around, strong southerly winds will start to pick up as the next low pressure approaches to our north – a tight gradient between the high to our southeast and the low to our northwest will be in place.

Saturday
14°C / 7°C
Starting off sunny, possible afternoon cloud

Saturday looks to start off with plenty of sunshine but the downside will be the windy conditions. Winds will continue to gust throughout the day but temperatures will manage to climb to the low to mid-teens across Southern Manitoba. With that said, there is a chance for some stratus to move in from North Dakota in the early afternoon which means we might not heat out completely. The low Saturday night will be fairly mild thanks to some cloud in the region keeping things warm as well as the southerly flow staying in place – lows will be well above the freezing mark.

Sunday
15°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy

By Sunday morning winds will have shifted to the northwest due to a cold front sweeping through the region in the morning. Although winds won’t be as strong as Saturday, they will continue to be gusty behind the cold front. Clouds are expected to linger throughout the day but there won’t be any significant precipitation. The temperatures will remain fairly warm, near average values – low teens are expected. Sunday night the low is will drop to the single digits, however, temperatures won’t drop below freezing.

Long Range

The Climate Prediction Centre as well as a few weather models show temperatures staying above normal for a good part of the beginning of next week with another low pressure system making its way across the Prairies and drawing in warm air ahead of it.