Tag: Windy

Winter’s Blustery Arrival

Brad Leave a comment

A storm system tracking through Manitoba today will bring one last shot of warmer weather alongside some rain before a major pattern shift plunges much of central and eastern North America into a substantial outbreak of Arctic air.

This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Friday: Windy and Rainy Afternoon

Friday
8°C / -5°C
Rain ending early this morning; windy with showers this afternoon

Today will start off with overnight rain tapering off fairly early in the morning; the temperature will start off around 2°C and climb to a high of 7 or 8°C under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight chance of a few sunny breaks in the morning to midday, but it won’t take too long until the cold front comes sweeping through the Red River Valley.

Winds will strengthen dramatically out of the northwest through the afternoon from nearly calm winds at lunch time to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Along with the strong winds, a band of showers will move through with just a few mm expected. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front heading to a low of around -5°C tonight.[1]

Lake-effect snow may rear its head as well tonight as the northwesterlies bring the significantly cooler air over the still-open lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see lake-effect snow develop sometime late in the evening through the overnight period. It looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the lake-effect activity, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop this evening.

Significantly Cooler Weekend

Saturday
-2°C / -6°C
Mixed skies, breezy and cool
Sunday
-2°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny

The weekend ahead will be marked by the beginning of a move into a much cooler air mass. Saturday will be a breezy, cool day with northwesterly winds 20-30km/h and a high near -2°C. Winnipeg will sit near the northern edge of a large bank of cloud stretching through Saskatchewan into North Dakota & Minnesota, which should result in mainly cloudy skies. A few sunny breaks are likely, however if things shift a bit further south the day could end up being a whole lot sunnier.

Under any of the cloud stretching through the Red River Valley, some very light flurry activity is possible. No accumulations are expected.

Temperatures will drop to around -6°C under clearing skies on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and lighter winds as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. We had mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in our last post, but as suspected all models are now pushing it well to our south. Expect a daytime high near -2°C and an overnight low near -9°C.

Even Colder Weather Next Week

Unfortunately, even colder weather is expected to move into the region next week, driving temperatures well below the seasonal high of around 0°C.[2]

The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.

A prominent upper-level trough will dig over the eastern United States next week, developing a pipeline of Arctic air straight from the North Pole into the central United States. Expect highs in the mid-minus single digits and lows near -10°C or so. No major systems are forecast to track through, and it appears that most snow that may show up will either be lake-effect or general light flurry activity. The lack of snow cover should help our temperatures from dropping too far, particularly at night.

  1. Plus or minus a degree or two depending exactly on cloud cover.  ↩
  2. Although one could say that in Novemeber, more than most months, “seasonal” or “normal” temperatures are just an average of extremes.  ↩

Chilly Halloween in the Red River Valley

Brad Leave a comment

A very cool Halloween evening is ahead in the Red River Valley thanks to a large high pressure system from the Arctic that will slowly move out of the province through the day. Unfortunately, as it begins to move out this evening, a fairly breezy southerly wind will develop and make things feel even colder than they already are.

Friday
2°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny and cool; becoming windy through the afternoon

Saturday
4°C / -2°C
Cloudy periods and breezy

Sunday
8°C / 2°C
Mixed to cloudy skies

Today will be a very chilly day with temperatures struggling to reach a daytime high of just 1 or 2°C thanks to a substantial amount of colder air that has pushed into the province with an Arctic ridge that’s moving through. Winds won’t be too bad this morning, but through the afternoon – as the ridge moves southeastwards into Minnesota and NW Ontario – southerly winds will strengthen to about 30km/h with gusts to around 50km/h.

Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.
Temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening in Winnipeg.

Temperatures will quickly drop to just below freezing this evening which, when combined with the ≥ 30km/h winds, will feel closer to the -8 to -10°C range. For anyone heading out, it will be quite a cool evening and be sure to bring some gloves and toques to keep warm.

Temperatures will drop to around -3°C overnight with the wind persisting.

Warming Through the Weekend

Temperatures will slowly climb as warmer air begins working into Manitoba from the west. Saturday will be another windy day with southerly winds at 30-40km/h with gusts as high as 60km/h. The temperature will climb to around 4°C for a high, but will certainly feel cooler than that with the strong winds. There will be a few clouds through the day, but it will be a relatively sunny day overall. The temperature will drop to around -2°C on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring the warmest weather in a while with temperatures climbing into the upper single digits. Winds will be lighter than Friday or Saturday which will make that warmer temperature feel more pleasant. Skies will be much cloudier and there may even be a very slight chance of a shower. Sunday night will see temperatures drop to 1 or 2°C with an increased chance of some shower activity.

Unsettled Week Ahead

The warmth and cloud reaching us by the end of the weekend is thanks to a developing low pressure system in Montana that is forecast to push into Manitoba early next week. There’s significant uncertainty to where and/or how much precipitation will fall, but at this point it looks like Winnipeg will see some share of the unsettled weather on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures for much of the week look to be near-normal[1] but there are hints that a significant low pressure system is possible at the end of the week that could bring Southern Manitoba its first wintery blast of the year. A lot can change between now and then, though, so we’ll just keep an eye on things for now and enjoy the warmer end to the weekend ahead!

  1. Normal daytime highs heading into the beginning of November are around 3 or 4°C.  ↩

Cool Weather Edges Back Towards Seasonal

Brad Leave a comment

The shot of cool air that worked its way into Winnipeg in a somewhat unwelcome fashion yesterday will remain entrenched over the region for the next few days, resulting in seasonal to just below seasonal temperatures heading towards Halloween. Fortunately, the weather looks to be drier, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much more of the white stuff.

Wednesday
4°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy; slight chance of morning flurries
Thursday
2°C / -6°C
Partly cloudy and cool
Friday
4°C / -2°C
Mainly sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon

Today will remain mainly cloudy but, unlike yesterday, our temperatures should manage to sneak just a little bit higher, to around 4 or 5°C[1] with substantially calmer winds. A weak low pressure system skirting along the U.S. border will bring a slight chance of showers to areas in the vicinity, but it looks like rain will likely remain States-side. A chilly night ahead tonight as some of the cloud starts clearing out and we head to a low of around -1°C.

Thursday will be a cool day as an Arctic ridge builds southeastwards into the province. Skies will be partly cloudy with no real chance of precipitation and it will be quite cool as temperatures are only expected to climb to 1 or 2°C. The overnight low will dip down to a very chilly -6 or -7°C under mainly clear skies. Thursday night looks like the low point for our temperatures over the next while.

A Chilly Halloween

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Friday but it will still be a chilly Halloween evening. The day will start off mainly sunny, but as the Arctic ridge slides off to our east and another low pressure system begins approaching from the west, more cloud will begin pushing in from the west. The temperature will climb to around 4°C by the afternoon and, thanks to the increasing cloud, gradually cool off through the evening.

Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.
Preliminary temperature & wind forecast for Halloween evening.

Alongside the increasing cloud coverage will come gradually increasing winds. While early in the evening they’ll be only around 15-20km/h, the wind will gradually increase to 30 gusting 50km/h by mid-evening and then further increasing to 40 gusting 60km/h by late in the evening. The temperature will drop to around -2°C overnight. The wind will make it feel rather cool, despite the fairly seasonal temperatures expected.

Unsettled Weekend

The weekend looks somewhat unpleasant as warmer air tries to work its way back into the province. Saturday looks quite windy and fairly cloudy as temperatures climb into the upper single-digits. Sunday brings some uncertainty as a larger system develops in the northern United States and lifts northeastwards. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, however it is possible that it ends up being a fairly rainy day. There’s significant disagreement with the models on the timing of this system, though; some bring rain in early on Sunday while others delay the rain until Monday. We’ll be sure to keep an eye on this system as it develops and we’ll take a closer look at it in Friday’s post!

  1. Seasonal highs for late October in Winnipeg sit near 5°C.  ↩

Elsewhere in Weather News: October 26th, 2014

Matthieu Leave a comment

Vancouver Sees Significant Rain Event

The city of Vancouver has seen its fair share of rainfall this past week, causing flooding problems throughout the metro. What was to blame for this event was an atmospheric river that came onshore the BC Coast, aided by a large upper level trough off the West Coast on Wednesday. Atmospheric rivers are narrow plumes of significant moisture which originate from the subtropics and flow from the southwest onto the shores of the west coast. On Wednesday morning fairly high PWAT[1]
values (>1”), a product of the atmospheric river, nosed into the Vancouver region which set the stage for the heavy rainfall event.

Atmospheric river making its way onto Vancouver island. (Source: Twisterdata)
Atmospheric river (high PWAT values) making its way onto Vancouver island. (Source: Twisterdata)

The rainfall started early Wednesday morning for Vancouver, including a thunderstorm that went through the city around 7am dropping heavy rain. With already saturated soil from the rain earlier in the week, flooding problems ensued. Metro Vancouver saw anywhere between 20-35mm, and pockets of locally higher amounts Wednesday. This event comes a day after the same system offshore brought very strong winds (gusts >100km/h) to Vancouver Island as well as downing power lines and snapping trees in metro Vancouver. It was reported that Tuesday night a total of 80,000 people in southern BC were without power at some time.

Flooding in Port Moody, just east of Vancouver, on Wednesday. (Source: Port Moody Fire Rescue)
Flooding in Port Moody, just east of Vancouver, on Wednesday. (Source: Port Moody Fire Rescue)

As this mid-week system departs, it makes way for the next system upcoming system this weekend. This will be yet another fairly strong system to impact the west coast, bringing with it more heavy rains and strong northwest winds. Unfortunately, unsettled weather is expected to last for the Vancouver region into next week.

  1. PWAT stands for precipitable water, a measure of the amount of water contained in a column of air.  ↩