Tag: Windy

Another Storm on the Way

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Wednesday will be a brief reprieve from the showery weather before a fairly potent low pressure system spreads more rain & thunderstorm activity across Southern Manitoba tonight into tomorrow morning and brings dreary weather for Thursday with strong northwesterly winds.

Wednesday
23°C / 13°C
A few sunny breaks; rain overnight.

Thursday
19°C / 6°C
Rain and drizzle tapering off mid-day. Risk of a thunderstorm. Windy.

Friday
19°C / 5°C
Mainly sunny.

Today will be a fairly pleasant day with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 23°C or so. There’s a slight chance of an isolated shower or three through the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg, but for now it looks like the activity should mainly remain to our west over southern Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba.

Tonight, an inverted trough extending NW from a low pressure system moving through the Dakotas will spread rain with the risk of thunderstorms eastwards into the Red River Valley. Rain will likely start sometime after 1AM and persist until mid-morning Thursday. The temperature will dip to around 13°C.

The Canadian RDPS is one of the models rather bullish on higher precipitation amounts Wednesday night.
The Canadian RDPS is one of the models rather bullish on higher precipitation amounts Wednesday night.

Rainfall totals for tonight are still uncertain; the general agreement is for between 10–20mm, however if substantial elevated convection develops as much as local amounts of 40–50mm may be possible. The low end of precipitation forecasts produce only around 5mm of rain.

I feel fairly comfortable with 10–20mm of rain tonight, but we’ll reassess the elevated convection potential later today and update if necessary. We’ll try and have an update fairly early this afternoon.

Unpleasant Thursday

Thursday will be quite an unpleasant day as Winnipeg moves onto the back side of the low pressure system lifting northeastwards into Ontario. The bulk of the rain should taper off mid-day, but brisk northwesterly winds building to 30–40km/h will accompany cloudy skies and a high struggling to climb into the upper teens. It’s also fairly likely drizzle will persist after the main area of rain moves out, making for a generally dreary day.

Skies will clear out for the evening, although there may be some cloudy periods through the first half of the night with some cloud moving off of Lake Manitoba, and temperatures will drop to a chilly 5 or 6°C.

Fall-Like Friday

Friday will be fairly pleasant, albeit cool, with mainly sunny skies and a high near 19 or 20°C. Winds will be fairly light through the day.

Friday night should bring clear skies and a low near 5 or 6°C.

A Look Ahead to the Weekend

The upcoming weekend is looking fairly good with unpleasant weather staying to our north. It’s looking like plenty of sun is in store with daytime highs in the ballpark of the seasonal 21°C mark and overnight lows moderating by the end of the weekend.

Fall-Like Weather Blasts Southern Manitoba

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Southern Manitoba will see its first blast of fall-like weather as gusty northwesterly winds draw cool air southwards over the region. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like the cold weather is here to stay and seasonal temperatures are expected to return by week’s end.

Monday
15°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy; windy and cool with lake-effect showers possible

Tuesday
19°C / 10°C
Mainly sunny

Wednesday
23°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

Today will be an unwelcome day for late August as abnormally cold air will move into the province behind the low pressure system that brought 20–40mm of rain to Winnipeg & the Red River Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. Brisk northwesterly winds to around 30–40km/h will usher in this cooler air and will restrain our daytime high to just the mid-teens. Additionally, the abnormally cool air aloft and favourable wind profiles will combine to produce lake-effect showers that will spread southeastwards towards Winnipeg.

Forecast 850mb temperatures for this afternoon show a trough of cold air anchored over Manitoba.
Forecast 850mb temperatures for this afternoon show a trough of cold air anchored over Manitoba.

Given that, occasional showers are likely in Winnipeg although due to the nature of lake-effect precipitation[1] the precise wind direction will determine whether or not the showers find their way into Winnipeg or whether they end up just north or just south of the city.

The clouds will clear out tonight as temperatures drop to around 7°C.

Tuesday and Wednesday will trend towards seasonal weather. Winds will be relatively light both days while the Red River Valley enjoys mainly sunny skies. Temperatures tomorrow will climb into the high teens while highs on Wednesday will reach the low 20’s. Lows on Tuesday night will bottom out around 10°C while Wednesday night sees more seasonal lows in the mid-teens.

Seasonal End to the Week

Looking ahead to the second half of the week, summer weather returns in full swing. Temperatures heading through the end of the week will see daytime highs in the mid–20’s with overnight lows in the mid-teens. The weather looks fairly dry until Friday when a weak cold front pushing across the province brings the chance for some shower or thundershower activity.

  1. Lake-effect precipitation extends in a very narrow band along the direction of the wind.  ↩

Springtime: Blowin’ in the Wind

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The warmest day of 2014 is on tap for Winnipeg as a low pressure system tracking through the northern Prairies brings with it an unseasonably warm air mass. With the passage of a cold front today we’ll also see strong – potentially near warning level in some areas – winds that will usher in slightly cooler temperatures than we’ve seen the past few days as well as a slight chance for a shower or two. With so much snow left on the ground, however, the big question is exactly how warm will it get?

Wednesday
10°C / 0°C
Partly cloudy; windy later today.

Thursday
7°C / -3°C
Mainly sunny. Winds gradually diminsihing.

Friday
7°C / -6°C
Mainly sunny.

Today

We’re off to a great start today with temperatures already above the freezing mark thanks to the incoming mild air and relatively breezy conditions that persisted through the overnight period. Warmer air will continue to stream in through the morning hours, producing a brisk southerly wind through the valley at 30-40km/h. Temperatures will climb the best they can, but the remaining snowpack will do a lot to keep us cooler.

In order for us to reach the full potential of the warm air coming in, we need to be able to mix it down to the surface. The best way to create instability in the lower levels is the sun; it shines down and warms up the surface until it gets hot enough (assuming the sun is strong enough) to create instability and begin mixing the lower atmosphere. This mixing process can help bring warmer air down and maintain a warmer temperature. Unfortunately, snow can dramatically inhibit this process through two main ways:

  1. Snow is white, so it reflects the incoming energy from the sun back out into the sky. This prevents that energy from being put into warming up the ground or air in the low levels.
  2. Snow is frozen, so when the temperatures begin to climb above zero the snow begins to melt, removing energy from the air and cooling it off.

With no snow, all the energy from the sun can go into heating the surface. Today we’ll see a pretty big difference in temperatures between areas with snow versus areas without snow. Here in Winnipeg, temperatures will likely climb to around 9-10°C before a cold front pushes through this afternoon. In the snow-free areas of North Dakota and a few portions of the western Red River Valley, temperatures will likely climb into the mid-to-high teens, possibly as high as the low 20’s.

Foreast temperatures for this afternoon from the RDPS. Note the warmer temperatures in North Dakota (no snow) and downwind of the western escarpment of the Manitoba Red River Valley.
Foreast temperatures for this afternoon from the RDPS. Note the warmer temperatures in North Dakota (no snow) and downwind of the western escarpment of the Manitoba Red River Valley.

The abnormally warm weather will be short-lived as a cold front blasts through the province midday. Strong westerly to northwesterly winds with gusts as high as 70km/h will push into the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures may actually climb a degree or two behind the cold front before they begin to drop a bit thanks to all the warm air aloft that is able to be mixed down. There will be a slight chance for a shower with the passage of the cold front, however the chances are better to the north of the Red River Valley, where the lift is stronger, and in North Dakota, where the instability is greater. We’ll head to a low of around 0°C tonight.

The Remainder of the Week

Tomorrow will be a mainly sunny day with stronger winds that will slowly diminish as the day progresses eastwards. We’ll see a high near 7°C and a low near -3°C. Friday will be another pleasant day with mainly sunny skies and relatively light winds. The high will be near 7°C and the low will drop to around -6°C as some cooler air makes a brief appearance for the weekend.

March to end with a Bang

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This March not only came in like a lion, it will also go out like a lion. A major winter storm will slam the American Red River Valley and parts of south-eastern Manitoba today. Read on for the details.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday
A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow to parts of southern Manitoba and the northern United States on Monday

Monday

Monday
-9°C / -15°C
Snow, heavy in some areas. Windy.

A Colorado Low will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba today. Wind speeds will range from 40-50km/h gusting to 50-70km/h. Some areas may even see winds as high as 60km/h gusting to 80km/h for a period of time. This will produce blizzard conditions in open areas of the Red River Valley and south-eastern Manitoba. The map below illustrates the expected snowfall totals.

Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.
Expected storm-total snowfall amounts.

Travel will become very difficult, if not impossible from points south of Winnipeg and into the American Red River Valley as the day progresses. Highway closures are likely through the day, with some roadways possibly staying closed until Tuesday. Roads that remain open will be in poor shape as well, so those traveling today may need to reconsider their plans.

This storm will wind down on Tuesday as the snow ends and the wind begins to decrease. However, those areas that saw the heaviest snow will have to deal with large snow drifts on Tuesday. Travel will be difficult if not impossible, particularly in the American Red River Valley, on most of Monday and likely into Tuesday as well. Luckily this storm should signal the beginning of the end of the seemingly endless winter we’ve endured.

Tuesday

Tuesday
-8°C / -22°C
Mainly Sunny

Tuesday will be a much calmer day in southern Manitoba. Temperatures will warm into the minus single digits, but a north-west wind will linger as Monday’s storm departs. At least it will be decent shoveling weather…

Wednesday

Wednesday
-4°C / -18°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday will see further improvement over Tuesday, as temperatures climb into the low to mid minus single digits. That should be good enough for some light melting of snow off dark surfaces – melting that can’t come soon enough for most people.

Long Range

The long range forecast is looking good for a change. Most models suggest we’ll see near normal weather in the short to medium term, which means high temperatures in the mid positive single digits. That should help to gradually start wearing down our snow pack.