A deep trough of cold air anchored over Hudson Bay will lock Southern Manitoba into a strong northerly flow that will keep us stuck in abnormally cold weather well into March. This latest blast of cold weather will ensure that the winter of 2013/2014 ends up as the coldest in 35 years[1] and as one of the 15 coldest winters on record[2].
Wednesday
-17°C / -34°C
Chance of morning flurries, then very windy w/blowing snow.
Thursday
-21°C / -26°C
Sunny. Increasing cloud & flurries overnight.
Friday
-21°C / -34°C
Flurries ending midday then clearing.
The Red River Valley is in for a rude return to the deep freeze today as a cold front rips through the Red River Valley bringing very strong winds with it. There’s a very slight chance of some light flurries in this morning’s cloud but it’s likely any precipitation that might develop will remain north or east of the valley. The bigger story is the cold front that will push through around lunch time today.
A deep unstable layer will develop this afternoon in the wake of the cold front.
The passage of the cold front will clear out the skies but bring with it very strong winds, increasing out of the north/northwest to 50km/h. A deep layer of instability, shown on the right in the forecast sounding, will work in two ways:
It will promote gusty winds which will mean in addition to the sustained winds at 40-50km/h, it’s quite likely we’ll see gusts in the 60-70km/h range.
The instability will help “loft” ice crystals and snow which is helpful in generating blowing snow.
Other than making it feel miserably cold, the wind will work together with the relatively dry snowpack in the area to produce blowing snow. I’m unsure of exactly what the snowpack surface’s nature is right now, but I think it’s safe to say that with winds as strong as we’ll see, some blowing snow is inevitable. I don’t foresee a full-scale blizzard or anything of the sort, but localized white-out conditions are certainly possible. If you’re travelling on area highways this afternoon, be aware of the potential for poor driving conditions.
The winds will ease off through the night as an Arctic ridge of high pressure pushes into the region. Temperatures will plummet close to -35°C through the Red River Valley by tomorrow morning as we become entrenched in bitterly cold air once again.
Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies, relatively light winds and a high near -21°C. A weak inverted trough will begin pushing into Southern Manitoba late late in the day and will spread cloud and light flurries into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight. Temperatures will drop only to around -25 or -26°C overnight thanks to the cloud cover.
Friday morning will see the light flurry activity tapering off with clearing skies towards midday as the trough pushes off to the east. With the sunshine will come wind once again, with north/northwesterly winds at 30-40km/h picking up through the afternoon. We’ll climb once again to around -21°C as a high
Entrenched
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.
Buckle up for the long haul; the cold air will be settling into the region for an extended stay. All long-range outlooks – including the NAEFS above – are forecasting below-normal temperatures into the second week of March. Of note is how far below-normal we’ll be this week. The seasonal high for this time of year is around -6°C, and with forecast highs of -21°C, we’ll be some 15°C below normal.
So keep the long johns out, plug in the car and keep warm!
Well, it was nice while it lasted. Get settled in for another long stretch of below-normal temperatures.
Friday
-14°C / -20°C
Windy with local blowing snow; chance of flurries.
Saturday
-14°C / -21°C
Breezy with mixed skies.
Sunday
-17°C / -23°C
Mainly sunny.
Today will be the most unpleasant day of the week with strong northwesterly winds at 40-50km/h making our high of -14°C feel more like the mid-minus-twenties and producing local blowing snow through the Red River Valley. Winnipeg will see mixed skies which will work in tandem the low-level temperature profile to produce a chance of some scattered light flurry activity. The strong winds will persist into the evening and slightly ease overnight as we head to a low of about -20°C.
Saturday will bring mixed skies once again with a high near -14°C. Winds will be lighter than today, but still fairly breezy at 20-30km/h. Skies will clear late in the day as we head to an overnight low near -21°C.
Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and a cooler high of only around -17°C[1]. The winds will be relatively light and we’ll drop down to about -23°C Sunday night.
Winter Returns
NAEFS 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
The immense low pressure system that is pushing northwards through the eastern half of Canada will end up re-establishing a large, cut-off low pressure system over Hudson Bay that will lock the Eastern Prairies into a strong north/northwesterly flow. This will work to entrench an Arctic air mass over the region which will result in below-normal temperatures at least until the end of February.
At this point, it looks like it may not be until the second week of March until the icy grip loses it’s hold over the region, but that’s a long way off and I don’t put a lot of faith in those sorts of forecasts. Safe to say we’re going to see another stretch of relatively dry, cool weather through the end of the month.
This is around 10°C below our seasonal daytime high of -7°C for this time of year. ↩
Southern Manitoba will finally see a reprieve from the icy grip of winter as a major pattern change will allow Pacific air to wash over the Prairies bringing substantially warmer – and more unsettled – weather.
Friday
-17°C / -20°C
Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries this evening & overnight.
Saturday
-14°C / -23°C
Mainly cloudy; chance of morning flurries.
Sunday
-9°C / ⇒ -9°C
Strong winds with blowing snow. Chance of snow late day.
A Couple Cool Days
There will be a chance to dig out after Wednesday night’s storm dumped around 10-15cm through most areas in Southern Manitoba as cool, fairly benign weather settles in over the Red River Valley for the next couple days. Mainly cloudy skies will persist through much of the day today as we climb to a high of only around -17°C.
As shown by the RDPS imagery above, flurries are possible tonight (light blue) over much of Southern Manitoba.
A weak disturbance will push through tonight that will push some light snow through the Interlake, but further south in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley there will be just a chance for some flurry activity. The relative weakness of the disturbance combined with quite cool temperatures will ensure that if anything manages to develop it will be quite light and not really accumulate to much at all. We’ll remain cloudy through the night and drop to a low around -20°C.
Saturday will be a fairly quiet day with any possible flurry activity tapering off in the morning and then seeing clouds slowly try to break up through the day. Some clearing should work it’s way in later in the day, but it’s a little uncertain how clear we’ll get. While it will have little bearing on any significant weather, it will dramatically affect our overnight low. If we remain a little cloudier – which I’m thinking is the more likely outcome – we’ll see an overnight low of around -23 or -24°C. If the clouds manage to clear out, even for a couple hours, we’ll get quite a bit colder than that and possibly see another low dipping below -30°C. That marks the last day of cold, though, as a major pattern change begins on Sunday.
Wind and Blowing Snow Usher in Warmer Weather
Sunday will mark the beginning of a major pattern shift that will see the persistent trough that’s been anchored over Northwestern Ontario break down and push off to the east, allowing our upper-level northwesterly flow to be replaced by westerly flow. That sounds like a small shift, but the impact will be dramatic.
Sunday will see increasing cloud through the day as milder air finally pushes in from the west. By evening our temperature will rise to around -10°C and snow will be pushing into Southwestern Manitoba. There will likely be at least some flurry activity, if not some light snow on Sunday night as a warm front pushes across the Red River Valley, but accumulations – at this point – look minimal.
The forecast sounding for Winnipeg on Sunday evening shows very strong low-level winds.
Perhaps the biggest weather impact on Sunday will be the southerly winds that will develop through the Red River Valley ahead of the warm front. A tight pressure gradient will result in strong winds developing fairly early in the day. We’ll likely see winds climb to around 50km/h sustained which will undoubtedly produce localized white-out/blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley. It’s too early to say exactly how bad it’s going to be, but it seems fairly certain that blowing snow is going to be a big issue for anyone planning to travel on Sunday, especially in the evening hours when the strong winds may combine with falling snow.
After we make it through the cold weather’s last stand, a significantly warmer – and more unsettled – week is ahead of us as the westerly flow aloft establishes itself over the Prairies. Daytime highs next week look to sit around -4°C, plus or minus a few degrees, but with the warmer weather will come multiple chances for snow as a train of disturbances set up and track across the Prairies. At this point, however, I’ll gladly take more snow if it means a break from the relentless cold we’ve seen in Winnipeg this winter.
Take heart and treasure the mild weather we have this morning; the Arctic cold front is on it’s way and through a series of low pressure systems we’ll see a snowy couple days drag us back into the icy grip of winter.
Friday
3°C ⇘ -12°C / -25°C
Light snow beginning midday. 2-4cm. Clearing & windy in the afternoon.
Saturday
-17°C / -24°C
Increasing cloud in the afternoon; snow overnight.
Sunday
-19°C / -30°C
Risk of a blizzard. Snow ending midday. Windy.
Mild Weather Forced Out
Our daytime high will not happen this afternoon. In fact, it will be roughly around where we are at the time of this being posted; an expected high temperature of -3°C sits only a couple degrees above where we are at right now and then we’ll see temperatures start going the wrong way behind a cold front set to push through midday.
We may see a few flurries this morning but the more organized precipitation will hold off until midday when a cold front begins working it’s way southwards. Complicating things will be an upper level shortwave that is rippling down in a northwest flow will ride along the frontal boundary and provide additional lift, helping make snow a little more widespread than it would be otherwise. Due to that, most areas across Southern Manitoba will see some snow through midday as everything passes through. Significant amounts are not expected as mid-level moisture will be somewhat lacking and limit the amount of snow that can be produced. In general, around 2-3cm will be seen in many areas. There’s a slight chance we’ll see a little more in the southwest Red River Valley – near Morden, Winkler, Altona & Gretna – thanks to a closer proximity to the upper-level shortwave and a little more mid-level moisture. Even there, though, I don’t expect to see more than 4 or 5cm.
The snow will taper off this afternoon and stronger northerly winds will develop to around 30 gusting 50km/h. Some local blowing snow might develop through the afternoon, but it shouldn’t be a widespread issue. Temperatures will begin tanking as the northerly wind ushers in cooler Arctic air, but fortunately the big cool-off will hold off a couple more days. Temperatures should drop through the afternoon to somewhere between -10 to -15°C by evening and then onwards to an overnight low close to -26°C or so under clear skies and diminishing winds.
A Cool, Calm Day
GDPS 850mb temperature forecast for Saturday showing a strong baroclinic zone through the Prairies.
Saturday will bring fairly benign weather and act as our calm before the storm. A cold, sunny start to the day will go on to see a high around -17°C under increasing cloudiness as a compact but powerful system zips towards the province along a strong baroclinic zone. A few flurries are possible anywhere there’s cloud, but the organized snow will push into Western Manitoba midday and work it’s way towards the Red River Valley by evening. Around 5cm will fall over Western Manitoba while just 2-4cm are expected here in the valley with the potential for some higher amounts along the western escarpment thanks to an upslope flow that will develop overnight.
Winds will remain fairly light throughout the day and night. Flurries will persist until Sunday morning and we’ll drop to an overnight low of around -24°C.
Miserable Weather for Sunday
The NAM (among others) is forecasting a strong pressure gradient over Southern Manitoba on Sunday.
The big story behind the departing low pressure system on Sunday will be the absolutely massive Arctic ridge racing into the Prairies behind it. A very strong pressure gradient is set to develop over Southern Manitoba which will produce strong winds. At this point, it looks like winds will steadily increase early Sunday morning to 40 gusting 60km/h in most places. Through the southern Red River Valley winds will likely climb into the 50-60km/h range thanks to the funnelling effect of the terrain.
Anyone with highway travel plans for Sunday should keep updated on the weather conditions and be prepared for potentially hazardous weather conditions with near-zero visibility on highways.
These strong winds, combined with instability in the low-levels thanks to more cold air pushing southwards and the fresh snow of the past couple days will very likely produce widespread blowing snow. It does look like a blizzard may be possible, although things may end up being a little too marginal. For a blizzard on the Prairies, Environment Canada requires:
Winds of at least 40km/h or greater.
Visibilities of 1/4SM (400m) or less in blowing snow or blowing snow with falling snow.
Both (1) and (2) lasting for 4 hours or more.
The best chance for blizzard conditions will be south of Winnipeg in the Red River Valley and southwards into North Dakota. A strong pressure gradient coupled with ample fresh snow and the funnelling effect of the valley will likely make it quite easy to go down to near-zero visibility. For most other regions, a blowing snow warning seems very possible[1]. Either way, highway travel will likely be poor-to-closed on Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on this as it develops and provide updates a little later this weekend on how things look to be shaping up for Sunday.
Other than the winds, we’ll see skies clear out through the day and our temperature remain steady from Saturday’s low or dropping slightly. The winds will taper off in the late afternoon and we’ll head to a low near -30°C.
Blizzard Update
Right now it looks like this may be the most significant ground blizzard of the winter so far.
Everything seems to be fairly lined up for a significant blizzard event to develop overnight tonight. Winds will begin to pick up through SW Manitoba late overnight and slowly spread eastwards towards the Red River Valley by midday. At this point, it seems like widespread winds of 40-50km/h are possible, although it is possible the winds strengthen as high as 50-60km/h in some areas. Gusts to 70-80km/h are quite likely throughout much of Southern Manitoba.
Widespread blowing snow is expected on Sunday. Maximum blizzard potential exists through SW Manitoba, the western Red River Valley and southwards into North Dakota.
These strong winds will work in tandem with fairly deep low-level instability and a surprising amount of moisture to make very favourable conditions for blowing snow. The strong winds will persist for at least 6-9 hours in most places, making a long-term blowing snow or blizzard event quite likely. If you have any plans to travel on highways in Southwest Manitoba or the Red River Valley on Sunday, it is best to give yourself ample time & make alternate arrangements; white-out conditions are very likely and some highways may be closed. Right now it looks like this may be the most significant ground blizzard of the winter so far.
This blizzard event will extend all the way southwards into North Dakota where there is absolutely no question that a significant ground blizzard will be underway. Just to repeat, conditions will get worse as one travels south. Winds will begin to ease and let conditions improve from north to south through the evening hours.
All in all it will be a lousy day for highway travel. Don’t do it if you don’t have to and stay safe.
Like a blizzard warning, but only requires 1/2SM visibility (800m) and 3 hour duration. ↩
