Tag: Windy

Week Heading to a Warm End, But Can it Last?

Brad Leave a comment

The latest shot of Arctic air is set to be ushered out thanks to an extremely powerful storm north of 60 that will flood the Prairies with mild Pacific air and push our temperatures well above normal by week’s end. The big questions is: will it stick around?

Wednesday
⇓ -27°C / -32°C
Mainly sunny, windy and cold.

Thursday
-10°C / ⇑ -7°C
Increasing cloud with a chance of flurries overnight. Warming.

Friday
-2°C / -17°C
Cloudy and warm. Chance of flurries.

Bitter Cold in Mid-Week Slump

We’ll see bitterly cold temperatures before our big warm-up as yet another very strong Arctic ridge slumps through the province. We’ll see fairly strong winds at around 30km/h gusting to 50km/h out of the northwest this morning and little-to-no recovery from our overnight low today as temperatures struggle to climb before falling to about -27°C this afternoon thanks to the cold air mass that’s pushing in. Blowing snow may remain an issue through the morning hours until the wind begins to taper off. Some cloud cover will linger in the region, but overall it should be a mainly sunny day as it often is when we have these very cold air masses incoming.

Temperatures will drop off to around -32°C or so tonight under clear skies with fairly light winds. Wind chill values will dip to the -37 to -40 range, but it doesn’t look like the criteria for a wind chill warning[1] will be met so I don’t expect any warnings to be issued for Winnipeg.

This forecast tephigram from the NAM shows the sharp low-level inversion in place late Thursday that will likely help produce strong winds.
This forecast tephigram from the NAM shows the sharp low-level inversion in place late Thursday that will likely help produce strong winds.

Thursday will be our transition day, much like (but not quite as strong as) last Wednesday[2], with temperatures warming to around -10°C by day’s end. With such warm air relative to the very cold air that will be entrenched in the valley, a strong inversion will develop which will aid in producing fairly strong winds. They will strengthen as we begin to warm up in the late morning into the afternoon to around 40-50km/h out of the south/southwest. The wind will conspire to make it feel quite a bit cooler than our advertised high would imply, and we may also see localized blowing snow through the valley which could make travel on some roads a little more difficult. A widespread blowing snow event is not expected.

Clouds will roll in through the afternoon as we begin to fall into the influence of the massive storm rolling through the Arctic. There will be a chance of some flurries overnight as our temperature continues to rise to around -7°C although most of the snow activity should stay to our east.

Mild Friday To End Week

Friday will start off on a great foot with temperatures quickly climbing towards -2°C with mixed skies and southwesterly winds at around 30km/h. A weak cold front will push through the Red River Valley midday which will cool off our temperatures slightly, but the bigger impact will the the potential for some snow as the front passes through and then stronger northerly winds in behind it strengthening possibly up to 40km/h with gusts to 50-60km/h. This strong northerly wind will tap into cooler air to our north and dip our temperature from our daytime high of -2°C to around -8 or -9°C by the early evening.

Friday night will bring clear skies as we dip towards -17°C for our overnight low.

Uncertain Weekend Ahead

This 850mb temperature forecast from the GDPS clearly shows the strong baroclinic zone bisecting the Prairies (highlighted).
This 850mb temperature forecast from the GDPS clearly shows the strong baroclinic zone bisecting the Prairies (highlighted).

The weekend is a bit of a wildcard at this point…for the most part. The one thing that’s certain is that we’ll plunge back into the deep freeze by the end of it. After Friday’s cold front, there will be a lull in the progress of the Arctic air as the entire atmosphere pivots with the next shot of cold air pushing in from the high Arctic. As the atmosphere takes this pause, a strong baroclinic zone[3] will develop and align NW/SE through the Prairies. There will be light snow along most of the baroclinic zone as it ripples back and forth with weak impulses, but it’s futile to attempt to pin down exactly where it will lie; models tend to have a lot of difficulty in correctly placing these features.

It does seem like the feature will set up further to our west than the last one and we’ll likely remain east of any snowfall. A disturbance will ripple down the baroclinic zone on Sunday which may bring us some light snow and will usher in the bitterly cold air in behind it.

  1. a. Wind chill values of -40 or lower.
    b. Winds greater or equal to 15km/h.
    c. Conditions (a) and (b) both being concurrently met for 3 consecutive hours or longer.  ↩
  2. …where the temperature rose from -27.1°C in the morning to 3.3°C in the afternoon; a whopping 27.4°C (January 15, 2014).  ↩
  3. A region of strong temperature gradients.  ↩

Mid-January Storm To Bring All Manner of Nasty Weather

Brad Leave a comment

A powerful storm system is pushing into Southern Manitoba this morning and will become the first major storm of the year. This storm will impact the entirety of Manitoba and bring very strong winds, heavy snow, near-blizzard conditions and a good chance of some freezing rain. Read on to find out where will see what as we break this thing down.

  • Significant weather expected: strong winds (and blowing snow), freezing rain and heavy snowfall.

  • Expected storm-total snowfall amounts from this system.

Disclaimer: I could write many more words than I have time to write about this system. As such, I’m going to just explicitly state right now that while I may mention areas outside the Red River Valley, the focus of this post will be for the weather expected in Winnipeg & the Red River Valley.

We’ll start out with the good news: temperatures are expected to stay near or above normal[1] through the remainder of the week; no horribly cold Arctic air is expected to slam southwards into the Prairies with this system. That’s about where the good news ends, though.

As we progress through this morning, an area of snow will move into the Red River Valley, pushing in from the west ahead of the incoming warm front. The low pressure centre is currently in northeastern Saskatchewan and will begin to dive southeast into Central Manitoba later this morning. Winds will strengthen out of the south this morning up to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Despite the relatively mild temperatures – we’re sitting at around -10°C – extensive blowing snow will likely be an issue in areas to the south of Winnipeg[2] thanks to the strength of the winds.

Wednesday

3°C / -11°C
Snow beginning this morning. Very windy. Risk of freezing rain this afternoon. Flurries overnight with blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley.

The heaviest snowfall will pass to the north and east of the city where a heavy snowfall warning is in effect for 10-15cm of snow. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll see a fair gradient in snowfall amounts from the southwest corner to the northeast corner thanks to how the precipitation spreads in from northwest to southeast. Through the day today, areas in the southwest corner can expect the lighter end of the snowfall with only around 2-5cm accumulation by the evening. Here in Winnipeg we’ll see from 5-10cm of snow while closer to 10cm of snow will fall to our north and east.

Our winds, as mentioned before, will become quite strong out of the south. They’ll lighten a little bit for the early afternoon as they swing to the west as the low pressure system moves through the Interlake and the warm front pushes east of the Red River Valley. Our temperature will jump up to around +2 or +3°C and we’ll see a break in any blowing snow that’s happening. By mid-to-late afternoon, though, a cold front will be approaching. Winds will shift a little more to the northwest and we’ll see a risk for some freezing rain just ahead of and along the cold front as it pushes through. In addition, there is the potential for some fairly heavy bursts of snow along the cold front with some models hinting that there may be a fair amount of convective activity associated with it[3]. Winds will shift straight out of the northwest by the evening and strengthen considerably to 50km/h with gusts potentially as high as 80km/h overnight here in Winnipeg.

This wind will readily whip up the freshly fallen snow in the RRV and produce near-zero or white-out conditions on area highways. Despite the fact that temperatures will not drop too quickly – only to around -10°C overnight – it will still be a brutal night. Continued flurry activity will likely continue through the night, compounding the visibility problems presented by the winds alone.

Thursday


⇒ -10°C / -20°C
Windy with blowing snow. Mainly cloudy.

The snow will taper off early on Thursday, but poor visibilities will continue through much of the day as the strong northwest winds persist at 40-50km/h at least into the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly steady at around -10°C.

By evening the wind will taper off as a ridge of high pressure moves into the province, bringing an end to any blowing snow left in the Red River Valley. The clouds will also scatter out and we’ll drop to a chilly -21°C for our overnight low.

Friday & The Weekend


-10°C / -14°C
Cloudy periods with a chance of afternoon flurries.

Friday will start off sunny but some cloudy periods will develop as a warm front pushes into the Red River Valley. We’ll become overcast in the mid-to-late afternoon and see a chance for a few flurries as the warm front pushes eastwards. This front will usher in warmer air for the weekend with highs near the 0°C mark and overnight lows dropping just shy of around -10°C.

  1. Normal daytime highs are around -13°C for mid-January.  ↩
  2. As usual, with a southerly wind the highways that will be affected most are those that run west/east.  ↩
  3. As evidenced by lightning in Northern Alberta last night.  ↩

Mild Weekend Welcome, But A Mixed Bag Otherwise

Brad Leave a comment

Temperatures over the next few days will be positively balmy for early January in Winnipeg as daytime highs near -5°C over the next few days keep us well over the normal high of around -13°C for this time of year. The warm temperatures are a welcome reprieve from the bitter cold that has gripped the province over the last month, but the other aspects of the weather will be a bit of a mixed bag over the next few days as multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

Friday
-5°C / -15°C
Cloudy with flurries beginning midday. Clearing overnight.
Saturday
-7°C / -12°C
Mixed skies and a bit cooler.
Sunday
-3°C / -15°C
Mixed skies with a chance of flurries in the morning and evening.

Today will be a pleasant day with fairly light winds and a high of around -5°C. Skies will remain cloudy through the day and we’ll likely see some scattered flurries develop through the Red River Valley midday as a very weak low pressure system pushes through. This evening will see any remaining flurries push off to our east with clouds scattering out overnight as we drop to a low of around -15°C.

Saturday will be a slightly cooler, thanks to a weak ridge passing over the Red River Valley, but nice day with a mixed sky and a high near -7°. We’ll drop only to around -12°C Saturday night as a warm front moves through the area associated with an incoming clipper system from Alberta. A band of light snow should push through the Red River Valley overnight into early Sunday morning with no real significant accumulations other than perhaps a couple centimetres here or there; the bulk of the snowfall will remain in the Interlake where around 2-5cm of snow is expected. Perhaps the bigger impact of the system will be the strong winds that move into the region on Saturday night; we’ll see them increase out of the south to 40 gusting 60km/h which will likely produce some blowing snow on highways throughout the Red River Valley.

After things clear out on Sunday morning we’ll actually be in for quite a nice day with a high near -3°C. Skies will be mixed for much of the day before more cloud moves into the area in the evening hours as a cold front slumps southwards towards the Red River Valley. The chance for some light flurry activity will re-emerge on Sunday evening with the passage of the cold front but as with the rest of the features this weekend, no significant amounts are expected.

Warmer weather is expected to continue through much of next week. A storm system is currently forecast to move through on Wednesday night, which could bring blizzard conditions to the Red River Valley thanks to very strong northwesterly winds, will likely bring cooler weather for the week’s end. We’re no longer in a relatively static upper-level pattern, though, so the cold air will continue trundling off to the east fairly quickly instead of sitting around here for a prolonged period.

Mild, Snowy Christmas Eve Gives Way to Another Cold Snap

Brad Leave a comment

This week will see cold weather continue — not exactly the Christmas present that many were hoping for.

The Wind Will Pick Up on Monday Night

The Wind Will Pick Up on Monday Night

Monday

Monday

Sunny
-23°C / -25°C

After a frigid morning, temperatures won’t recover a whole lot today, but at least it will be sunny! Afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid minus twenties, with increasing winds. Wind speeds during the morning and afternoon won’t be particularly high, but winds will increase through the evening and into the overnight period. Some blowing and drifting snow is likely in open areas on Monday night as winds increase to 30-40km/h gusting to 50-60km/h out of the south. To add insult to injury, snow is expected on Monday night into Tuesday. The snow will begin in Western Manitoba on Monday night, and push into the rest of Southern Manitoba by Tuesday morning.

Christmas Eve

Tuesday

Mainly cloudy. Snow.
-12°C / -20°C

Tuesday will be warmer than Monday as those stiff southerly winds overnight bring in some milder air, but this reprieve from the cold will be accompanied by snow. A total of 4-8cm of snow is expected in Southern Manitoba by the time the snow ends on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will be in the minus twenties, but by afternoon we should climb into the minus single digits over Western Manitoba and the mid minus teens over Eastern Manitoba. The Red River Valley will likely remain stuck in a southerly flow through the day, causing temperatures to remain a bit below -10C.

Christmas Day

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.
-18°C / -28°C

Another cold front will pass through Southern Manitoba on Christmas morning, allowing cold weather to return for the big day. The wind will also pick up behind this front, generating chilly wind chill values. High temperatures for Christmas will be in the upper minus teens, with a chance of flurries through the day.

Long Range

The long range forecast looks cold, cold, cold. We may see one warmer day towards the end of the week, but other than that there is no moderation in the forecast.

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