Tag: Winnipeg

Warm, Humid, and Unsettled Weekend Ahead

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Southern Manitoba will see humid conditions develop this weekend as a warm and unsettled pattern develops over the region.

RDPS 2m Dew Point Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday June 15, 2024
Humid conditions will develop across southern Manitoba on Saturday.

To end the work week, an area of high pressure will gradually shift east out of the province through the day. This will bring a warm and settled day to the region with a high in the 25 to 30 °C range and partly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will begin to pick up later in the day and mark the beginning of the weather pattern that will persist through the weekend.

An upper trough will dig southwards over western North America through the weekend; this will support a prolonged southerly flow at the surface while disturbances eject northeast across the region over the next few days.

Humid Weather Arrives This Weekend

The southerly winds at the surface will draw heat and humidity northwards through the weekend. Daytime highs won’t be excessive through the weekend, likely in the mid-20s, but the region will likely see its first surge of humid conditions.

The humidity will be comfortable today with dew points in the low teens, but more humid conditions will quickly develop on Saturday. Dew point values will climb into the mid- to upper teens on Saturday, then hover in the 16 to 20 °C range overnight Saturday, then increase towards 20 °C ahead of a cold front on Sunday. As the cold front sweeps through on Sunday afternoon, drier air will sweep into the region and bring relief.

The humidity will keep temperatures warm on Saturday night with overnight lows in the 18 to 22 °C range across many parts of southern Manitoba.

Stormy Conditions Possible

Weather-wise, there will be several chances for stormy weather through the weekend. The first disturbance will be a weak area of low pressure that pushes into southern Manitoba tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the second half of the night into Saturday morning.

The activity will taper off on Saturday afternoon, then another disturbance will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Saturday evening and overnight. Sunday will be more settled, but there will be a low chance of showers or thunderstorms with the cold front as it sweeps east.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start unsettled as the deep upper trough remains over western North America. Waves of rain and thunderstorms will be possible across southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday, then more settled conditions will move in for the middle of the week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 11 °C.

Unsettled Week Leads to Warm Weekend

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Winnipeg will see a few more days of unsettled conditions, but the weather will settle heading into the weekend as temperatures climb into the upper 20s.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 18Z Wednesday June 12, 2024
A sharp warm front will move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday.

To start things off today, showers that moved in overnight will continue to track east out of the region. There may be a few sunny breaks this morning, but more cloud will spread into the region for midday. An upper low moving into the province this afternoon will destabilize things and bring a chance for a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures will climb to a high in the low 20s with morning southerlies easing followed by moderate westerlies picking up to 40 gusting 60 km/h in the afternoon.

The cloud cover will break up tonight with temperatures dipping down to around 10 °C as winds ease. There may be a low chance for a few passing showers overnight.

On Wednesday, another low developing over the western Prairies will push a warm front across southern Manitoba. Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid-20s in Winnipeg and other areas along and south of the front, while cloudier and cooler temperatures stick around for areas north. Heading into the afternoon, though, this front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. This feature will bring higher levels of energy to the region to fuel thunderstorms; MLCAPE — mixed-layer CAPE, a measure of energy available for a thunderstorm to use — will climb to around 1,000 J/kg and be coupled with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer wind shear. These values will combine to bring a risk of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms to southern Manitoba on Wednesday afternoon.

This activity will taper off heading into the night, though isolated showers could linger into the early morning hours of Thursday. Temperatures will dip down into the low teens.

On Thursday, an upper low will track across southern Manitoba. It will bring temperatures back down to the low 20s in Winnipeg along with mixed skies and a chance of showers. Skies will clear up on Thursday night with temperatures heading down into the low teens again.

Long Range Outlook

The weather will finally settle down on Friday with sunnier skies as an area of high pressure crosses the province. Warmer air will begin building into the region on Friday with daytime highs climbing back into the mid-20s.

A deep southerly flow will develop for the weekend, ushering more heat and moisture northwards. This will help push temperatures into the mid- to upper-20s with dew points rising into the mid-teens. While not anything that will feel overly humid or sticky, the humidity will be more noticeable than it has for most of the year so far.

Unfortunately, this push of warmer weather looks likely to bring more chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for multiple waves of showers or thunderstorms to push across southern Manitoba.

Cooler, more settled conditions are likely to start next week.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 23 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 10 °C.

Mild and Unsettled Days Ahead

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Mild spring temperatures will stick around for the weekend in Winnipeg, but unsettled conditions will bring a couple chances for [thunder]showers.

ECMWF 24hr. Precipitation Accumulation Forecast valid 12Z Monday June 3, 2024
A low pressure system will bring more rain to southern Manitoba on Sunday.

A low pressure system over northern Manitoba will bring moderate westerly winds to the Winnipeg area today. Winds will strengthen up to 40 gusting 60 km/h today as temperatures climb to a high in the low 20s. An upper trough will swing into the region from the west later in the day and support an area of [thunder]showers.

With weak instability, severe weather is unlikely. Scattered showers with risk of a thundershower will likely develop late this afternoon over the southwest corner of the province and move across the Red River Valley this evening. Much of the activity will taper off on Saturday night, but a chance of showers will persist to Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip down to a low near 10 °C overnight with diminishing winds.

Skies will clear on Saturday as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. With lighter winds, temperature swill climb back to a high in the low to mid-20s. The quiet, calm weather will be short-lived as another disturbance moves towards the region on Saturday night. A low pressure system tracking along the international border will begin to spread cloud into southern Manitoba later in the night. Otherwise, it should be an uneventful night with a low once again near 10 °C.

As the low tracks across the region on Sunday, it will spread showers and thunderstorms with it. Much of southern Manitoba will see cloudier conditions on Sunday with a good chance of rain. Temperatures will be mild, though, with highs steady in the low to mid-20s. Many areas could receive another 5 to 15 mm of rain through the day.

The showers taper off on Sunday night as the low tracks into Ontario. Light northerly winds will develop behind this system with temperatures dipping to a low in the low teens.

Long Range Outlook

Next week will start with a flip back to sunnier skies, but another notable low is forecast to move into the region for Tuesday. This system could bring waves of rain to the region through Wednesday with a risk of thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will have significant variability with this system, but early indications are that localized accumulations as high as 30 to 60 mm of rain may be possible across southern Manitoba.

The wet weather will come to an end for Thursday as a high builds into the region and brings sunnier conditions into next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 22 °C while the seasonal overnight low is 8 °C.

A Taste of Summer Arrives for the Weekend

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Winnipeg will get its first taste of summer this weekend as hot temperatures move into the region and bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms.

RDPS 2m Temperature Forecast valid 21Z Saturday May 11, 2024
Saturday will bring hot weather to southern Manitoba with daytime highs in the upper 20s.

Today will start with lingering cloud and/or showers from a cold front that moved through overnight making its way out of the region. The rest of the morning will be sunny, then skies will become mixed for the afternoon. It won’t be as warm today as yesterday; moderate northwest winds up to 40 gusting 60 km/h will limit daytime highs in the area to around 20 °C.

The wind will quickly ease this evening, then temperatures will cool off towards 10 °C tonight. More cloud will build into the area overnight as a warm front approaches from the west. There’s a small chance of scattered showers early Saturday morning as the warm front moves through.

On Saturday, the region will see mixed skies as moderate westerly winds up to 30 gusting 50 km/h move into the region. With the warm front through, temperatures will climb into the 25 to 30 °C range; likely topping out at 26 or 27 °C. Dew points will stay in the mid to upper single digits through the day, sending relative humidity values down to the 20–30% range. The warmth, dry air, and moderate winds will increase the fire risk for the day across the region.

A cold front will slump into the region on Saturday evening and will trigger scattered showers and the risk of thunderstorms. With a dry air mass in place over the region, there will be little energy for any convection to work with. This will mean severe weather is unlikely, but strong and gusty winds are possible with any showers or thunderstorms that develop.

Temperatures will head back down to around 10 °C on Saturday night as skies clear and winds ease.

Sunday will bring more settled conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves across the province. Temperatures will climb to a high in the 15 to 20 °C range with moderate northerly winds. Skies will stay mainly sunny through the day. It will be a cool one on Sunday night as temperatures drop close to 0 °C with a risk of frost.

Long Range Outlook

Similar weather will continue on Monday in the Winnipeg area with partly cloudy skies and a high in the 15 to 20 °C range.

On Tuesday, a low pressure system is forecast to move into Manitoba, bringing several days of unsettled weather to the Winnipeg area. Showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, then conditions should begin to improve heading towards next weekend.

Today’s seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg is 18 °C while the seasonal overnight low is +4 °C.