Today will be yet another blustery day in the Red River Valley as strong northwesterly winds sit over the region behind a low pressure system that passed through overnight. Blowing snow will be an issue in some rural areas, however little new snow and a couple days of compaction since Sunday’s snowfall should result in less blowing snow than was seen then. After one last shot of cold air settling over Southern Manitoba tonight, the large-scale pattern looks set to change and allow slightly milder air back into the region.
Today’s most significant weather will be the strong northwesterly winds in place through the whole Red River Valley. Gusting as high as 60-70km/h, the strong winds will make the high of -9 or -8°C feel much colder with wind chill values in the -15 to -20 range. Blowing snow will be a bit of an issue in rural areas, however with little new snow and some time for Sunday’s snow to settle, reduced visibilities in blowing snow should be much less an issue today than it was for the end of the weekend. No significant accumulations are expected today in the Red River Valley, however there may be an isolated band of higher amounts in the lee of Lake Winnipeg.[1]
Tonight will see skies clear and winds taper off as temperatures dip down to a “chilliest-this-season” low near -19 or -20°C.
After a chilly start, Thursday will be another cool day. Fortunately, light winds will make things feel not nearly as bad as Wednesday as temperatures climb towards a high near -10°C. Skies will remain mainly clear[2] on Thursday night as temperatures dip down to around -16°C.
Big Warm-Up in Store for End of Week
After a considerable amount of time with below-normal temperatures, things look set to switch around dramatically on Friday as the upper-level ridge that’s been in place for much of November over British Columbia completely collapses and a zonal flow brings milder temperatures eastwards across the Prairies.
The milder air will bring a fair amount of cloud cover with it as it spreads eastwards, resulting in a mostly cloudy day in Winnipeg as temperatures climb to a relatively balmy -5°C or so. Unfortunately, with all the mild air attempting to move in, strong southerly winds to around 40-50km/h will likely develop, keeping things feeling cooler than it would otherwise. There may be a slight chance of some light flurry activity in the Red River Valley along the warm front in the afternoon, but at this point it looks insignificant.
Mild air will continue to push eastwards on Friday night, and the Red River Valley should find itself into the warm sector of this low pressure system. As a result, overnight lows will be considerably warmer than we’ve seen lately. Expect temperatures to drop to around -8 to -10°C on Friday night under partly cloudy skies.
Mild Weekend Ahead
We should see more pleasant weather on Saturday with a fair amount of sunshine and lighter winds as the temperature climbs to around -4°C.[3] Sunday continues the mild trend, however the milder temperatures will be sustained by a low pressure system tracking along the U.S. border.
This system looks like it has the potential to bring a swath of 10+cm of snow to the Interlake westwards towards the terrain west of lakes Winnipegosis and Manitoba. Given how far out this system is, there’s a lot of details up in the air[4] and slight variations in track or intensity could dramatically shift/impact the snow event. We’ll be keeping an eye on it, but for now just keep it in the back of your head that the weekend could be ending with what could be the heaviest large-scale snow event so far this season.
- Very little is expected in the way of lake-induced flurry activity to the lee of lake Manitoba now that it’s mainly ice covered. ↩
- Much of the night should be mainly clear, however some cloud may sneak in late in the overnight period associated with Friday’s system. ↩
- The potential for highs closer to -2 or -1°C exists, but I’d rather wait until closer before getting anybody’s hopes up. ↩
- Rimshot ↩
