Tag: Above-Normal Temperatures

Warm Weather Continues

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Above-normal temperatures[1] will continue through the remainder of the week as a southwesterly flow aloft continues to pump relatively mild Pacific air over the Prairies.

Wednesday
17°C / 8°C
Increasing cloud with a chance of showers

Thursday
15°C / 7°C
Mainly cloudy

Friday
16°C / 5°C
Some morning cloud, then sunny

Unsettled Wednesday

Today will be the most unsettled day of the week thanks to a (very) weak cold front pushing eastwards across the Red River Valley today. A fairly sunny start to the day will become more mixed by mid-day with a slight chance of shower activity in Winnipeg mid-day into the early afternoon. It seems most likely that the activity will remain to the east of Winnipeg, with showers or even thunderstorms almost a certainty in the Whiteshell southwards to the US border.

Precipitation forecast for this afternoon from the Canadian RDPS model.
Precipitation forecast for this afternoon from the Canadian RDPS model.

The American NAM weather model has been an outlier for several runs in a row, producing a fairly potent band of showers and thunderstorms over the western Red River Valley and pushing eastwards through the day. Given the weak surface forcing, mediocre moisture and the rate and evolution of the upper-level destabilization, it seems that the NAM is probably over-doing things and not a likely forecast. It’s worth mentioning here as an outside possibility, though, given its consistency in producing that outcome.

Other than the showers, strong southerly winds at 40 gusting 60km/h will taper off this afternoon behind the weak cold front as they shift to westerly at around 20km/h. The temperature will climb to around 17°C today.

Skies will clear out this evening as the temperature drops near 8°C for the overnight low.

Pleasant End to the Week

Thursday and Friday will both be pleasant fall days – especially for late October. Dry weather will be the name of the game for both days with highs in the mid-teens and fairly light winds. Some cloud will push across the Red River Valley on Thursday night but otherwise things will be mainly sunny/clear. The temperature will dip to around 6 or 7°C on Thursday night and a bit cooler – near 5°C – on Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, the weather continues to look pleasant with highs in the teens, no real threat of rain and plenty of sunshine. Enjoy!

  1. Normal daytime highs for this time of year sit around the 8°C mark.  ↩

Beautiful Summer Weather Continues

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The beautiful weather we’ve been enjoying over the Thanksgiving weekend is set to continue for a couple more days before slightly cooler weather moves in for the weekend. Fortunately, the dip in temperatures looks to be short-lived before warmer air once moves back into the region.

Wednesday
19°C / 9°C
Warm & windy; mostly cloudy

Thursday
17°C / 5°C
Becoming cloudy with showers in the afternoon

Friday
9°C / -1°C
Mainly cloudy & windy, clearing in the evening

Wednesday

Today will be marked with significant warmth hampered somewhat by the breezy southerly winds that will develop. An approaching low pressure system, responsible for spreading the above-average temperatures in Manitoba, will produce a strong pressure gradient over the Red River Valley today which will result in southerly winds increasing to around 40km/h by late this morning with gusts approaching 55–60km/h. These stronger winds will persist well into the evening before tapering off overnight.

Otherwise, it will be a fairly nice day. Temperatures will climb to around 19°C, with a very slight chance of eking out a 20°C for the day, and skies will be fairly mixed, probably trending towards the cloudier side of things. Skies will clear out a bit overnight as we head to a low of 9°C or so.

Thursday

Thursday will be perhaps an even nicer day than today will be. Skies will be a bit sunnier and temperatures nearly as warm – around 18°C for a high – but without today’s wind.

The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.
The NAM is generating quite a bit of shower activity across Southern Manitoba – shown here by this simulated RADAR image – on Thursday evening.

A low pressure system and associated cold front are poised to move through in the evening, however, which will bring with them some shower activity as the system swings across the Red River Valley. Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will begin tapping cooler air as we head to a low of 3°C overnight with showers possibly persisting through the overnight period.

If slightly heavier activity is maintained overnight, there’s a slight chance that the showers may change to mixed precipitation or flurries for a few hours, but no accumulation of snow would be expected. We’ll keep an eye on this system and provide updates in the comments below if necessary.

Friday

Friday will be a relatively unpleasant day, although in reality quite close to the normal conditions for this time of year. Gusty northwesterly winds to 30km/h and mainly cloudy skies will be the name of the game as our high sits 10°C cooler than Wednesday or Thursday at around 9°C. Little in the way of precipitation is expected.

Winds should taper off Friday evening alongside clearing skies as we head to an overnight low just below freezing.

The Weekend

Conditions will gradually improve through the weekend. Highs both days will climb somewhere in the 10–12°C range with relatively light winds. Sunday appears to be the more interesting of the two days as some showers push into Western Manitoba. It’s unlikely that any rain will make it into the Red River Valley, but we’ll certainly see some cloud from the system as it moves through.

The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.
The NAEFS is forecasting above normal temperatures next week.

The passage of Sunday’s system will mark the return of warmer air to our region and, at this point, it looks like we’ll be returning to above-normal temperatures for next week. Medium-range forecast models, such as the NAEFS, all show a strong signal of above-normal temperatures returning for the last week and a half of October.

Mild Weather Moderating; Rain Returns Sunday

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Temperatures will remain well above normal for two more days before seasonal air begins pushing back into the province through the weekend as a cold front gradually progresses southeastwards. A chance for showers returns to southern Manitoba on Sunday as a disturbance developing in North Dakota causes the cold front to stall out over our area.

Friday
28°C / 16°C
Fog patches in the morning, then hot and humid

Saturday
26°C / 12°C
Chance of morning fog, then mainly sunny and warm

Sunday
⇘ 10°C / 6°C
Cloudy with rain likely

First the good news: after we burn off a little fog that developed overnight, today will be another beautiful, summer-like day with highs in the upper 20’s and surprisingly humid conditions for late September. Strong southerly winds at 40–50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h will be tapping into a pool of moisture in the Northern Plains and drawing it northwards. Dewpoint values will sit near 17–19°C through much of the southern portions of the province.

Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.
Today will bring abnormally high late-September humidity to Southern Mantioba.

Yesterday I erroneously tweeted that our dewpoint of 17.6°C broke the previous record of 16.8°C set in 2008 and that it had been the latest on record[1] such high humidity had been seen in Winnipeg. Rob’s Obs did a little digging and found that the actual record is still held by October 8, 1997 when the dewpoint climbed to 18.6°C. Whoops. I apologize for missing that.

That being said, today will give that record a run for its money; multiple models forecast our dewpoint to climb to 19°C, which if it happens would be the latest 19°C dewpoint on record.

Saturday will be a beautiful day in Winnipeg with a high in the mid–20’s and more comfortable humidity as a cold front gradually approaching begins flushing out some of the moisture in the region. There’s a chance of fog again in the morning and we may see a few clouds around, but the bulk of the day should be mainly sunny. Winds don’t look to be an issue.

This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.
This simulated RADAR image from the NAM shows a band of rain stretching across Southern Mantioba on Sunday afternoon.

Things change on Sunday as the cold front that was approaching on Saturday stalls out as a disturbance in North Dakota develops. A band of rain is expected to develop along the stalled out front, spreading from SW Manitoba eastwards through the afternoon until a band of rain stretches across the whole province. Temperatures will start off cool and only drop from there as the rain cools things off a little further and northerly winds at 20–30km/h continue to tap cooler air and bring it into the region. The rain should taper off late in the evening here in Winnipeg with anywhere from 5–15mm falling depending on the exact timing and speed of the system. Temperatures will dip down to around 6°C.

Unsettled Week Ahead Leading to A Cold Snap

Long-range forecasts don’t look particularly great. The first couple days of the week look seasonal temperature-wise. A series of Colorado Lows look to develop mid-to-late week which will bring a chance for showers, but more significantly, begin drawing down much cooler air from the Arctic. The end of the week looks like it will end with an Arctic outbreak bringing another shot of below-normal temperatures and brisk northwesterly winds.

  1. Records for seasonal dewpoint values go start in 1953.  ↩

Fall Starts By Putting Summer to Shame

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The first week of fall[1] will start off with weather that will seemingly put this summer to shame. Very warm weather is on the way with potentially record-breaking highs across Southern Manitoba on Thursday!

Wednesday
25°C / 14°C
Cloudy; clearing for a sunny afternoon

Thursday
31°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny; increasing humidity

Friday
30°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny & hot

A prominent upper-level ridge in place over the Prairies has pushed the polar jet stream far northwards and allowed warm air to spread into the Southern Prairies from the United States. As a result, significantly warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of the week in Winnipeg.

Today will start off fairly cloudy thanks to some stratus cloud that spread northwards ahead of a dissipating trough of low pressure. The cloud should clear out for the afternoon and we’ll see temperatures climb to around 24 or 25°C. The temperature will dip to around 14°C tonight under mainly clear skies.

Thursday and Friday will both bring highs just at or over the 30°C mark under mainly sunny skies. South to southeasterly winds will begin tapping into some moisture from the Central Plains of the US and we’ll see the humidity gradually rise for the latter half of the week. Dewpoint values will climb into the mid-to-upper teens, which when combined with highs near 30°C, it will feel more like the mid-to-upper 30’s. The overnight lows both nights will be in the mid-teens.

Record-Breaking Potential

We have a slight chance of breaking daily record high temperatures on both Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, September 25th the daily record high temperature is 31.1°C set in 1950. For Friday, September 26th the daily record high temperature is 31.7°C set in 1957. Both days will see temperatures climbing to or just above the 30°C mark, and if maximum heating is realized, we may get the bump we need to break one of these records!

Date High Temperature (2014) Record High
September 25 27.7°C 31.1°C (1950)
September 26 30°C (Forecast) 31.7°C (1952)

Cooler Weekend

The weekend is looking great, despite a cool-down that’s in store. Daytime highs will dip around 5°C or so for the weekend with both days seeing highs in the mid–20’s. Fortunately this still puts us around 8°C above normal for the time of year, so there will be little to complain about. We’ll likely see a bit more cloud that we do through the second half of the week, but all in all it will be a gorgeous weekend!

  1. …sort of. Meteorological fall started at the beginning of September, but fall as most people consider it began on September 22nd after the autumnal equinox.  ↩