Tag: Below-Normal Temperatures

Below-Normal Temperatures Continue

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Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.

Friday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies.

Saturday
-18°C / -27°C
A few clouds.

Sunday
-17°C / -25°C
A few clouds.

Quiet Weather Ahead

A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.

After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.

Cold Weather Here to Stay

While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.

The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.
The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.

So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!

  1. It should probably be noted that – especially in January – the “normal” temperatures tend to be averages between the extremes thanks to our continental climate.  ↩

Extreme Cold on The Way Out

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A clipper system tracking through Southern Manitoba today will bring near-normal temperatures and a very slight chance of a flurry through the early afternoon. Once the system passes through, we’re going to settle into a fairly stable pattern as a dome of cold air settles over Hudson Bay, keeping us in a benign but cool pattern for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Cloudy; a marginal chance of midday flurries. Clearing later in the day.

Thursday
-20°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny.

Friday
-18°C / -22°C
A few clouds.

Today will bring relatively mild weather as temperatures climb up to -11°C or so thanks to a weak clipper system tracking through Central Manitoba that is dragging some warmer air with it as it pushes through. We’ll see mainly cloudy conditions through the morning and early afternoon with clouds then clearing out late in the afternoon or early this evening. There’s a very slight chance of a flurry or two starting midday and through the early afternoon, but the risk is very slight at that. Any organized snowfall should remain to our north and to our east, but even there only around 2cm is expected. By mid-afternoon there will be essentially no threat of snow and the clearing will begin.

This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.
This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.

As the clipper system pushes off into Ontario, cooler air will begin filtering into Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures drop to around -25°C tonight with a modest recovery to around -20°C tomorrow under mainly sunny skies. The temperature will drop to around -25°C once again tomorrow night under clear skies. Friday looks to climb a little bit warmer to around -18°C with some afternoon clouds as a very weak disturbance whips across the province. Slightly warmer air aloft will bump up our overnight low a few degrees to around -22°C or so under clear skies once again.

More of the same (perhaps cooling off a little) is in store for the weekend. No significant snowfall events[1], in Winnipeg or the Red River Valley, are expected right through to the end of next week.

  1. “Significant” in this case meaning 2cm or more.  ↩

New Year…Same Old News

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Happy New Year! Hope you didn’t expect any significant shift in our weather pattern because the cold air is here to stay. A brief reprieve may be seen as a system slides through by week’s end, but the cold air is set to return behind it.

Wednesday

-27°C / -34°C
Mainly sunny; cold.
Thursday

-24°C / -26°C
Mainly sunny. Increasing cloud with a chance of light snow overnight.
Friday

-14°C / -25°C
Periods of light snow, 2-5cm. Clearing overnight.

We’ll see another very cold day today with any remaining clouds clearing out this morning as we march towards a daytime high of just –27°C or so. Temperatures will drop to around –34°C tonight under clear skies. Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures as a system pushing eastwards into the Prairies begins bringing some slightly warmer air eastwards. Our high should reach around –24°C while the warmer air becomes much more apparent with our overnight low which will be comparatively balmy around –26°C. Clouds will push in overnight with a slight chance of some light snow before morning.

Snow Likely on Friday

Friday will likely bring light snow to Winnipeg as a low pressure system works through Manitoba. The bulk of the snow will through the Interlake into Central Manitoba, but we’ll likely see the white stuff here in the Red River Valley as well. It looks like most places will see around 2–4cm of snow, however it’s possible that we sneak into the 5–8cm range if things end up just a little heavier than currently forecast. At this point, it looks like Winnipeg would likely see 4–5cm of snow; we’ll be sure to update this if need be as the system gets closer.

A benefit to the cloud and snow will be warmer weather; temperatures should climb to around –14°C on Friday. Skies will clear overnight and we’ll drop down into the mid-minus twenties.

Cold Air Returns

Yet another shot of extremely cold Arctic air is set to move back into Manitoba behind this system. Daytime highs will likely sit in the mid-minus 20’s through the weekend with overnight lows near –30°C, but the cold air should work it’s way into the region early next week, bringing another round of extremely cold temperatures.

2013 In Review

As it’s now 2014, I’ve already begun working on the 2013 statistics for Winnipeg. I hope to have a post ready within a couple weeks with a complete summary of the year past that will put into perspective where last year sat in the big picture!

Stuck In A Cool Pattern

Brad Leave a comment

A high-ampltude jet stream is bringing unseasonable weather to much of Canada.

A high amplitude jet stream is bringing unseasonable weather to much of Canada.

Temperatures will remain fairly cool through the next few days as Southern Manitoba remains entrenched in a pattern that has the jet stream diving through Saskatchewan well to our south, trapping cooler air over the area. In addition, snow will enter the picture as snow squalls batter areas in the lee of the lakes – in particular Lake Winnipeg – and a weak disturbance slides down from the North and brings flurry activity to many regions tonight.

Today

Wednesday

3°C
Mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries in the afternoon.

Through much of the Red River Valley today we’ll see mainly cloudy skies – perhaps with a sunny break or two – with the weather pattern being dominated by snow squalls coming off the lakes. While some squall activity is expected off of Lake Manitoba, with a band of snow extending SSE from the lake positioned between Portage la Prairie and Elie. More vigorous activity is expected off of Lake Winnipeg, where cooler air aloft will combine with favourable winds which will bring air not just over the South Basin, but over the North Basin as well. The cooler air aloft coupled with the air being over water for longer will combine to produce vigorous convection that will push SSE off the lake into areas around Beausejour and east.

The snow has the potential to be very heavy, producing near-whiteout conditions and rapid snowfall accumulation. Fortunately it will be confined to a fairly narrow corridor in the lee of the lake, but if you are expecting to travel east towards the Whiteshell today, you should be prepared for potentially encountering treacherous winter driving conditions.

Wednesday Night

-2°C
Light snow beginning in the evening.

Embedded above these local features will be a weak frontal wave sliding southwards along the baroclinic zone that is dividing the Prairies. This weak wave will bring light snow activity to the Interlake through the daytime today, pushing southwards and entering the northern Red River Valley by late in the afternoon or early evening hours. This light snow will push all the way south to the US border through the evening and persist through much of the night. No significant accumulation is expected from this system, although if it ends up intense enough then its possible some areas may awake to a cm or two on Thursday morning.

High temperatures will be around 2–3°C today throughout the Red River Valley while the ample cloud cover and light snow will limit our overnight lows to just around –2°C.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday

4°C / -4°C
A mix of sun and cloud; chance of flurries in the morning.
Friday

7°C / 0°C
Sunny becoming a mix of sun and clouds. Chance of showers.

Thursday will bring a mix of sun and cloud as the cloud from the overnight snow clears out but ample low cloud continues to flow off the lakes. There will be a chance of flurries in the morning as the overnight disturbance leaves the province, but little is expected otherwise. Some light snow may fall out of any clouds that wander through Winnipeg in the afternoon, but it would likely be exceptionally light if that were to happen.

Overall it will be a relatively nice, albeit cool, day. We’ll drop down to around –4°C under partly cloudy skies on Thursday night.

Friday will start with relatively clear skies but we’ll see things become more mixed as the day progresses. A significant low pressure system will be pushing through Northern Manitoba into NW Ontario dragging warm air with it across the Prairies; we’ll see southwesterly winds of 20–30km/h bring warmer air into the region as we head to a seasonal high of 7°C. There will be a chance of showers here in Winnipeg, although we look to be on the periphery of the system with the bulk of the precipitation falling through the Interlake into Southeast Manitoba. Friday night will bring partly cloudy skies and a low of about 0°C.