Tag: Benign Weather

Seasonal Weather Ahead

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This week will feature near normal conditions as we cool down a bit from a sultry Sunday.

The weather will be mostly calm in southern Manitoba on Monday, but dangerous storms will be possible south of the border
The weather will be mostly calm in southern Manitoba on Monday, but dangerous storms will be possible south of the border

Monday

Monday
26°C / 16°C
Mix of sun and cloud with a chance of showers

Today will feature near normal weather in southern Manitoba as temperatures climb into the mid twenties. There will be a chance of showers through the day as an upper-level impulse rolls through, but little in the way of accumulation is expected. Despite the calm weather in Manitoba, conditions just south of the border look to be quite different.

A very hot and extremely humid air mass are located over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today. This air mass will become extremely unstable by late afternoon, characterized by MLCAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg (CAPE is a measure the potential energy/fuel for a thunderstorm), or perhaps even higher in localized pockets. Favourable wind profiles will allow for supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes early in this thunderstorm event, but cells will likely transition into a powerful convective system by mid to late evening. Given the potency of the thunderstorm environment tomorrow, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including very large hail and destructive winds. If your travels take you into this region today, you’ll want to pay close attention to the latest weather watches and warnings in the area.

Tuesday

Tuesday
26°C / 14°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Tuesday will be a relatively benign day. Temperatures will once again be in the mid twenties. Precipitation is unlikely as a surface high pressure system builds into Manitoba. Winds will be relatively light and from the north.

Wednesday

Wednesday
27°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny

The surface high from Tuesday looks to stick around for Wednesday, bringing continued pleasant weather to southern Manitoba. Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper twenties with light winds. Some precipitation may edge into western Manitoba late in the day as thunderstorms are potentially triggered to our west in Saskatchewan.

Long Range

The long range forecast looks to have ups and downs. Models strongly suggest that a low pressure system will move into Manitoba late this week, potentially bringing us some rain and generally unsettled conditions. Once that system exits the region we’ll likely return to more summer-like weather next week.

A Chance to Dry Out

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A ridge of high pressure building into the province will offer several days of dry weather.

A break from the wet weather is finally here thanks to a ridge of high pressure that is building into the province. In a pleasant change of events, that will allow this forecast to be a whole bunch shorter than many of late.

Wednesday
22°C / 10°C
A few clouds

Thursday
25°C / 12°C
Mainly sunny

Friday
26°C / 18°C
Cloudy periods

The dry weather can’t come soon enough as the flooding situation continues to worsen over the southwestern corner of the province. Fortunately, conditions will be near-perfect over the next several days.

Today will bring a few clouds and a high in the low 20’s as the ridge begins pushing into Manitoba. Winds will be quite light today out of the northwest at around 15km/h. The temperature will drop to around 10°C under clear skies tonight.

Thursday will be a much more summer-like day with sunny skies and a high near 25°C. Winds will be light out of the southwest at only around 15km/h. Clear skies again tomorrow night as we head towards a low of 12°C.

Summer continues its return on Friday as temperatures climb a degree or two higher than Thursday. We’ll see a few cloudy periods as a warm front pushes towards the province. The temperature will fall to around 17 or 18°C on Friday night with a few clouds.

Blistering Weekend Ahead

Looking ahead to the weekend, there is only one word to describe it: hot. A very hot and humid air mass will build into southeastern Saskatchewan on Friday and then spread eastwards into Manitoba on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the lower 30’s on Saturday while dew point values climb into the 21-24°C range. The heat and humidity will combine to likely produce humidex values over 40 on Saturday. Needless to say, that is swelteringly hot and will firmly remind people that we are, in fact, in the middle of summer.

Sunday will continue to be hot until a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the upper 20’s or just break 30°C which will feel more like the upper 30’s thanks to the humid air still present in the region. Slightly cooler and drier air will move in for Sunday night and next week as the winds shift westerly behind the cold front.

Any storm potential for the weekend is still unclear. To some degree severe storms are always possible when such hot and humid air pushes into our region, but at this point there simply isn’t a clear indicator as to whether anything will develop. We’ll have more on it later in the week.

Enjoy some dry weather and, finally, a real taste of summer!

A Quiet Return to Form

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After an exciting start to the week thanks to a Colorado Low that brought anywhere from 20-50cm of snow through portions of Southern Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota and Ontario, conditions are poised to return to near normal by the end of the week.

A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.
A low pressure system will bring seasonal temperatures for the weekend in Southern Manitoba.

A west-to-southwesterly flow aloft will slowly bring warmer air into our region and allow our temperatures to finally snap out of the 10-15°C below normal regime Southern Manitoba has been stuck in for the past week and push towards seasonal values for this time of year. The considerable snow pack still remaining will limit our ability to warm above 0°C without any strong push of warm air as any extra energy the sun is giving at this time of year will be going into melting snow, not warming air.

Wednesday
-1°C / -13°C
Sunny.

Thursday
-1°C / -10°C
Becoming mainly cloudy. Chance of flurries.

Friday
+1°C / -8°C
Clearing.

A weak ridge of high pressure will keep skies clear and winds light today as temperatures climb to around -1°C. Temperatures will drop to around -13°C tonight with increasing cloudiness as a weak inverted trough extending northwards from a Colorado Low tracking through the Central Plains pushes into our region.

Thursday will be mostly cloudy – perhaps a few sunny breaks – with a slight chance for some flurries. There will be more organized light snow in southwestern Manitoba, perhaps a cm or two, but the inverted trough will slowly weaken and fizzle out as it pushes towards the Red River Valley. By the time it reaches Winnipeg, it seems likely that all that will remain is very disorganized and light flurry activity. Temperatures will climb to around -1°C again and drop to a low near -10°C overnight under mostly cloudy skies.

On Friday, the day will likely start cloudy but clear out through the morning leaving a mainly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will manage to squeak above the freezing mark to +1°C or so, making for quite a pleasant afternoon. Expect an overnight low around -8°C on Friday night under mainly clear skies.

Mild Weekend on the Way

Things look set to bring the warmest air of the year into the region for the weekend. A fairly strong low pressure system is forecast to track through the northern Prairies, dragging mild Pacific air eastwards as it goes. A warm front looks to push through on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it a slight chance for some flurry or shower activity. Temperatures will climb into the low single digits with breezy southerly winds in the 30-40km/h range.

Sunday will be perhaps the nicest day we’ve seen in a long, long time. The Red River Valley will be smack dab in the middle of the warmest air and temperatures will climb to a more seasonal 5 or 6°C before a cold front pushes through in the evening.

Unfortunately, it appears we’ll see a return to below-normal temperatures after that. Exactly how cold is uncertain, however we’ll likely see plenty of “below normal” due to the extensive snow pack that still has a long way to go until it’s melted. On the bright side, it won’t be long until “below normal” will still be above freezing…

Unseasonably Cold

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Southern Manitoba has a long stretch of benign, significantly cooler than normal[1] weather ahead as a large upper-level low entrenches itself over Hudson Bay.

Monday
-16°C / -25°C
Chance of a morning flurry, otherwise mainly sunny.

Tuesday
-21°C / -25°C
Mainly Sunny

Wednesday
-15°C / -31°C
Chance of a morning flurry, then clearing.

A large storm that pushed up through the eastern United States late last week has stalled out over Hudson Bay and is all set to make things miserable for us over the next couple weeks. Temperatures won’t be quite so bad to start the week thanks to a somewhat disorganized upper-level flow over the Eastern Prairies, but things will go from “disappointing” to “cabin fever” mid -week as a pipeline of Arctic air sets up and daytime highs plummet back below -20°C.[2]

The 500mb flow will organize as the week progresses and allow colder air to push into the province.
The 500mb flow will organize as the week progresses and allow colder air to push into the province.

There will be a slight chance of a flurry this morning as some of the last remaining cloud clears out from the Red River Valley and then we’ll see mainly sunny skies through most of the day as the temperature climbs up to around -16°C. The wind should be a little lighter than the past few days out of the west/northwest at 20-30km/h. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C tonight under clear skies.

Tuesday will bring colder weather with a high only around -21 or -20°C under mainly sunny skies and with breezy winds at 30-40km/h out of the northwest. Temperatures will drop to around -25°C overnight with some cloud pushing into the Red River Valley as a weak low pressure system approaches from the north. We’ll see a slight chance of flurries late overnight into Wednesday morning before the cloud clears out and we’re left with mainly sunny skies. Winds will start off relatively light but increase to north/northwesterly at 30-40km/h again once the cold front passes through. Temperatures will dip down to around -31°C on Wednesday night under clear skies.

The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.
The NAEFS 8-14 day temperature outlook.

Things look to remain cold for the foreseeable future with below-normal temperatures being forecast by the NAEFS all the way to two weeks out. In addition to the cool temperatures, things should be fairly benign weather-wise with no significant storm systems in the near future. It looks like there may be a couple cm of light snow on Friday as a weak inverted trough slides across Southern Manitoba, so we’ll keep an eye on that and how things develop. No big storms on the horizon, so just bundle up and enjoy the sunshine!

  1. Seasonal daytime highs for mid-February are -6°C and seasonal overnight lows are -16°C.  ↩
  2. Some 15°C below normal!  ↩