It’s steady as she goes for the next few days with gradually colder weather on tap through the next few days.
Friday
-15°C / -26°C
Cloudy periods.
Saturday
-18°C / -31°C
Cloudy periods.
Sunday
-22°C / -30°C
Sunny. Cold.
We’ll see some clouds this morning but the sun will slowly gain more sky share as clouds break up through the day. We’ll head towards a high of around -15°C with notably lighter winds than yesterday. Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies and a low near -26°C.
We’ll again see some cloudy periods tomorrow, but it looks like overall we’ll see more sun than Friday. Highs will be near -18°C and the overnight low will plummet under clear skies and an incoming Arctic ridge to just under the -30°C mark. Sunday looks to bring sunny skies and cold temperatures with a high only around -22°C. We’ll drop back to -30°C on Sunday night.
No significant pattern changes are in store over the next week, so the cold and relatively quiet weather is going to continue to stick around for a while.
Those looking for a balmy reprieve from winter are going to have to look into buying plane tickets because there is no end in sight to the below-normal temperatures that have settled in over the region. A very stable pattern has developed which anchors us into a north/northwesterly flow and will continue to tap cold Arctic air and funnel it southwards over the Prairies.
Friday
-18°C / -25°C
Mixed skies.
Saturday
-18°C / -27°C
A few clouds.
Sunday
-17°C / -25°C
A few clouds.
Quiet Weather Ahead
A very quiet few days are ahead of us with little in the way of active weather on tap. A weak cold front is pushing southwards through the province today, and while it’s possible some snow happens, if it were to it wouldn’t really amount to more than a few flakes and definitely wouldn’t accumulate to anything. Here in Winnipeg and areas south the best chance for that is overnight, but it’s so minimal that I don’t really feel it bears any more mention than.
After that, there’s no snow expected through the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will generally sit around -18°C for highs and -25°C for lows with variations a couple degrees off those points. Winds are also expected to be light with nothing climbing over 20-25km/h through the next few days.
Cold Weather Here to Stay
While it’s not nearly as cold as it was through December or many parts of this month, our temperatures are still noticeably below the “seasonal”[1] -11°C for this time of year. Thanks to that persistent northerly flow thanks to a complex of lows anchored over Hudson Bay, it doesn’t look like much change is in sight.
The NAEFS is forecasting below-normal temperatures through the 8-14 day timeframe.
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) continues to forecast below-normal temperatures in the 1-2 week timeframe; unfortunately for us, this outlook tends to be fairly accurate most of the time. At this rate, it means that we’ll see little hope for improvement at least until the middle of February.
So, do what Winnipegers are great at doing: make lemonade. Enjoy the fact there won’t be much wind, bundle up and get out there!
It should probably be noted that – especially in January – the “normal” temperatures tend to be averages between the extremes thanks to our continental climate. ↩
A clipper system tracking through Southern Manitoba today will bring near-normal temperatures and a very slight chance of a flurry through the early afternoon. Once the system passes through, we’re going to settle into a fairly stable pattern as a dome of cold air settles over Hudson Bay, keeping us in a benign but cool pattern for the remainder of the week.
Wednesday
-11°C / -25°C
Cloudy; a marginal chance of midday flurries. Clearing later in the day.
Thursday
-20°C / -25°C
Mainly sunny.
Friday
-18°C / -22°C
A few clouds.
Today will bring relatively mild weather as temperatures climb up to -11°C or so thanks to a weak clipper system tracking through Central Manitoba that is dragging some warmer air with it as it pushes through. We’ll see mainly cloudy conditions through the morning and early afternoon with clouds then clearing out late in the afternoon or early this evening. There’s a very slight chance of a flurry or two starting midday and through the early afternoon, but the risk is very slight at that. Any organized snowfall should remain to our north and to our east, but even there only around 2cm is expected. By mid-afternoon there will be essentially no threat of snow and the clearing will begin.
This 700mb temperature chart for Saturday evening shows the dome of cold Arctic air set to settle over Hudson Bay.
As the clipper system pushes off into Ontario, cooler air will begin filtering into Manitoba. We’ll see temperatures drop to around -25°C tonight with a modest recovery to around -20°C tomorrow under mainly sunny skies. The temperature will drop to around -25°C once again tomorrow night under clear skies. Friday looks to climb a little bit warmer to around -18°C with some afternoon clouds as a very weak disturbance whips across the province. Slightly warmer air aloft will bump up our overnight low a few degrees to around -22°C or so under clear skies once again.
More of the same (perhaps cooling off a little) is in store for the weekend. No significant snowfall events[1], in Winnipeg or the Red River Valley, are expected right through to the end of next week.
A very benign weather pattern will move over Southern Manitoba as a ridge of high pressure builds into Manitoba bringing increasingly sunny skies and temperatures slowly trying to climb towards seasonal.
Friday 21°C / 9°C A mix of sun & cloud.
Saturday 24°C / 11°C Mainly sunny.
Sunday 24°C / 11°C Mainly sunny
We’ll see a mix of sun and cloud today as daytime heating is able to produce some shallow convection, but there won’t be enough instability remaining to produce any precipitation as subsidence moves in ahead of the approaching ridge of high pressure. Today will be our coolest day with temperatures only climbing into the low 20’s. Tonight will be quite cool with our temperature dropping just under 10°C by tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow we’ll be under the influence of the high and we’ll see mainly sunny skies as temperatures climb back towards more seasonal highs – which for this time is around 26°C – of around 24°C. Sunday will be nearly a carbon copy of Saturday with a high near 24°C and an overnight low of around 11°C.
Next Week
We’ll start next week with a fairly nice day on holiday Monday with highs in the mid–20’s under a mix of sun and cloud.
NAEFS 8–14 Temperature Anomaly Outlook produced at 12Z August 1, 2013. Areas in red indicate above-normal temperatures, while areas in blue indicate below-normal temperatures, expected for the week after next (8–14 days from now).
The rest of the week looks to be fairly steady temperature-wise, however some models are hinting at a system that may bring some showers or thunderstorms to the region mid-week. No significant warm-up is in sight as a persistent vortex continues to redevelop over northern Ontario and Hudson Bay, keeping a persistent northwesterly flow over the eastern Prairies.
