Tag: Showers

Warmer-than-Seasonal Temperatures Continue

Brad Leave a comment

Although the second half of the week will see cooler temperatures than have been in place over the past 5 days, daytime highs will nonetheless still remain above the seasonal values near -2°C. Perhaps one of the biggest differences over the next few days will be that it will be significantly cloudier than seen over the past several days which will likely slow down the melting a little bit. Highs near or above 0°C will continue to keep the City of Winnipeg a slushy, sloppy mess, so don’t put away that spare bottle of windshield washer fluid yet!

A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.
A low pressure system developing in Alberta & forecast to track eastwards across the Prairies will bring continued warm weather alongside plenty of cloud.

Today will be a mostly cloudy day in Winnipeg with a chance for some non-accumulating light flurries as a weak warm front(fn) slides northeastwards through the region. After the passage of the front, there may be a rogue sunny break, but overall skies should remain mostly cloudy as temperatures climb to near +1°C with an easterly breeze. Cloud cover will thicken up tonight as the main support for the advancing low from Alberta begins pushing towards our region. Skies will be overcast tonight with temperatures remaining steady near 0°C.

Wednesday
+1°C / ⇒ 0°C
Mainly cloudy with a chance of morning flurries

Thursday
5°C / -1°C
Cloudy; chance of evening showers or flurries

Friday
3°C / -2°C
Mainly cloudy

Thursday will be an overcast day through the Red River Valley with light winds as a low pressure system tracks right across the region. Temperatures will be warmer – highs should be near 5°C – and no precipitation is expected through much of the day. Heading into the evening, a chance for some showers or flurries will spread into the Red River Valley alongside northwesterly winds to 20-30km/h behind the passage of a trough. The chance for some flurries will persist through the overnight period as temperatures drop to around -2°C.

Friday will be another mainly cloudy day. A few light flurries may linger into the morning hours, but in general most of the day will see no precipitation. Highs will climb to near +3°C with a chance for some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Skies will clear through the evening as we head to a low near -2 or -3°C.

Near-Seasonal In The Long-Range

This weekend looks to bring another surge of warmth to Southern Manitoba on Sunday that will push daytime highs into the upper single-digits, but looking further than that, near-seasonal temperatures are expected. This translates to daytime highs around the 0°C mark or so. The odd day here or there of slightly warmer-than-normal is possible, but all in all it appears that Winnipeg will be transitioning into a fairly dry, seasonal March pattern next week.

Fortunately, with daytime highs above 0°C many days and little snow expected, the erosion of the snowpack in the Red River Valley will continue over the coming week. With little snow expected, many regions in the valley could see snow-free conditions by the end of the weekend. This is particularly significant as areas of snow-free ground will warm up significantly more than snow-covered ground. As we head into the coming weeks and warmer and warmer air begins moving in, it won’t be uncommon to see 10°C temperature differences over short distances based solely on snow-cover.

After the bone-chilling February experienced in Winnipeg, there are no complaints to be had with how March has unfolded so far and looks to continue!

Winter’s Blustery Arrival

Brad Leave a comment

A storm system tracking through Manitoba today will bring one last shot of warmer weather alongside some rain before a major pattern shift plunges much of central and eastern North America into a substantial outbreak of Arctic air.

This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
This map of 850mb winds and temperatures shows a potent cold front pushing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Friday: Windy and Rainy Afternoon

Friday
8°C / -5°C
Rain ending early this morning; windy with showers this afternoon

Today will start off with overnight rain tapering off fairly early in the morning; the temperature will start off around 2°C and climb to a high of 7 or 8°C under mostly cloudy skies. There’s a slight chance of a few sunny breaks in the morning to midday, but it won’t take too long until the cold front comes sweeping through the Red River Valley.

Winds will strengthen dramatically out of the northwest through the afternoon from nearly calm winds at lunch time to around 40-50km/h with gusts as high as 70km/h. Along with the strong winds, a band of showers will move through with just a few mm expected. Temperatures will drop behind the cold front heading to a low of around -5°C tonight.[1]

Lake-effect snow may rear its head as well tonight as the northwesterlies bring the significantly cooler air over the still-open lakes. Areas in the lee of the lakes may see lake-effect snow develop sometime late in the evening through the overnight period. It looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the lake-effect activity, but we’ll keep an eye on things as they develop this evening.

Significantly Cooler Weekend

Saturday
-2°C / -6°C
Mixed skies, breezy and cool
Sunday
-2°C / -9°C
Mainly sunny

The weekend ahead will be marked by the beginning of a move into a much cooler air mass. Saturday will be a breezy, cool day with northwesterly winds 20-30km/h and a high near -2°C. Winnipeg will sit near the northern edge of a large bank of cloud stretching through Saskatchewan into North Dakota & Minnesota, which should result in mainly cloudy skies. A few sunny breaks are likely, however if things shift a bit further south the day could end up being a whole lot sunnier.

Under any of the cloud stretching through the Red River Valley, some very light flurry activity is possible. No accumulations are expected.

Temperatures will drop to around -6°C under clearing skies on Saturday night.

Sunday will bring mainly sunny skies and lighter winds as a ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. We had mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in our last post, but as suspected all models are now pushing it well to our south. Expect a daytime high near -2°C and an overnight low near -9°C.

Even Colder Weather Next Week

Unfortunately, even colder weather is expected to move into the region next week, driving temperatures well below the seasonal high of around 0°C.[2]

The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook from the CPC shows unquestionable certainty of below-normal temperatures for central and eastern North America.

A prominent upper-level trough will dig over the eastern United States next week, developing a pipeline of Arctic air straight from the North Pole into the central United States. Expect highs in the mid-minus single digits and lows near -10°C or so. No major systems are forecast to track through, and it appears that most snow that may show up will either be lake-effect or general light flurry activity. The lack of snow cover should help our temperatures from dropping too far, particularly at night.

  1. Plus or minus a degree or two depending exactly on cloud cover.  ↩
  2. Although one could say that in Novemeber, more than most months, “seasonal” or “normal” temperatures are just an average of extremes.  ↩

Warmer than Normal, but Still Cool

Scott Leave a comment

Conditions will remain at or above normal this week, unfortunately “normal” continues to get colder by the day.

A cool westerly flow will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday

A cool westerly flow will dominate southern Manitoba on Monday

Monday

Monday
8°C / 2°C
Mix of sun and cloud

Today will be mild by early November standards, but that doesn’t mean it will be warm. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper single digits in southern Manitoba with a brisk westerly wind. Skies will be a mixture of sun and cloud as an upper-level weather system moves across Manitoba.

Tuesday

Tuesday
4°C / 0°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers or flurries

Tuesday will be cooler than Monday as we see a brisk north-westerly flow behind a departing low pressure system. Temperatures will generally be in the mid single digits under mainly cloudy skies. There may be a few flurries or rain showers, but no significant accumulations are expected.

Wednesday

Wednesday
3°C / 1°C
Mainly cloudy with chance of showers/flurries

Wednesday will see continued cool weather in southern Manitoba with temperatures in the low to mid single digits, but lighter winds than what we saw earlier in the week. Skies will remain mainly cloudy and we may once again see some light flurries or rain showers.

Long Range

The long range forecast suggests we’ll continue to see normal to above-normal weather for at least the next week or so. Beyond that model solutions diverge, with equal chances of us ending up above or below normal.

Temperatures To Remain Above-Normal Despite Cool Down

Brad Leave a comment

A cold front passing through Southern Manitoba later today will usher in cooler air, but temperatures will only dip slightly and remain above-normal through the weekend.

Friday
16°C / 5°C
Mixed skies; windy in the afternoon

Saturday
11°C / 2°C
Mainly sunny

Sunday
12°C / 5°C
Mainly cloudy wiht a chance of showers

Friday Brings Blustery Winds

Today will be a warm day across the Red River Valley with daytime highs in the 15–16°C range – around 8°C above the normal daytime high of 7°C – under mixed skies trending towards cloudier this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient coupled with an advancing cold front will bring fairly gusty winds into the province this afternoon, with southerly winds shifting to westerly-to-northwesterly and increasing in speed to 35–45km/h with gusts as high as 60–70km/h. No precipitation is expected with the passage of the cold front.

The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.
The 850mb temperatures from the NAM model clearly show the cold front passing through Southern Manitoba this afternoon.

Temperatures will drop to around 5°C tonight under clearing skies.

Mixed Weekend Ahead

Saturday is shaping up to be a very nice day with a few clouds, diminishing winds and a high near 11°C. Saturday night should bring clear skies and a low near 2°C.

Sunday will see a warm front lift into the Red River Valley, resulting in a mainly cloudy day with a chance of showers as the front moves through; it’s looking like the rain potential is in the afternoon at this point. Expect a high in the low teens alongside some breezy southeasterly or easterly winds moving towards an overnight low around 5°C.