Another nice week is in store, as warm weather sticks around for the beginning of August.
Monday
27°C / 14°C
Mix of sun and cloud
Tuesday
29°C / 16°C
Partly cloudy with slight chance of thundershowers
Wednesday
28°C / 15°C
Mainly sunny
Today will be very nice as temperatures climb into the upper twenties. Skies will be mainly sunny with light winds. There will be a slight chance of showers, but these will be hit and miss.
Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with temperatures once again in the upper twenties under mainly sunny skies. There will again be a slight chance of showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Any rain will be brief, so it shouldn’t be a big deal for most people.
Wednesday will be another pleasant day. Temperatures will be in the upper twenties, with light winds once again. There may be a few showers as well, but mainly in western Manitoba.
Long Range
The remainder of the week looks good, with temperatures staying at near to above-seasonal values. Long range modelling is hinting at cooler weather by mid-month, but we’ll have to see if that ends up panning out.
With July in the books, August looks to continue our streak of beautiful weather as an upper-level ridge continues to produce stable, warm and mostly dry weather over Southern Manitoba.
Friday
29°C / 16°C
Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud
Saturday
27°C / 13°C
Mixed skies with a chance of isolated showers
Sunday
26°C / 12°C
Mainly sunny with some afternoon cloud
It won’t take a lot of words to describe the weather over the next few days. Today will bring another sunny day that will most likely be the warmest so far this week with a high temperature approaching the 30°C mark. Clouds will roll in later in the afternoon ahead of a disturbance trundling down from the northwest Red River Valley overnight.
Tonight’s low temperature will bottom out near 15 or 16°C under partly cloudy skies. There could potentially be a few isolated showers through the Red River Valley through the overnight period, but the odds are definitely stacked against it happening.
Saturday looks like a pleasant day with mixed skies and a slight chance of showers in the afternoon through the overnight period again as a weak trough pushes through the region. Temperatures will climb into the mid–20’s for the daytime high and drop down towards low teens overnight.
Sunday will be another seasonal day with highs in the mid 20’s and overnight lows in the low teens. The day will be fairly sunny with some increasing afternoon cloud as a weak system slumps through southwestern Manitoba, bringing some shower activity to that area. Here in the Red River Valley we’ll likely remain dry, although at this point it looks like late in the day some shower activity may edge into the western Red River Valley.
None of the activity over the next few days is expected to be significant and the long-range outlook continues our seasonably warm and dry weather through much of the coming week.
The warm summer weather will continue through the remainder of the week as a strong upper-level ridge over the Western Prairies continues to produce warm, dry weather over Southern Manitoba.
Wednesday
27°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny
Thursday
28°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny; low chance of isolated showers
Friday
28°C / 16°C
Mainly sunny
Today will be another beautiful day with fairly light winds and a high near 28°C. Humidity will stay comfortable and there will be a slight chance of showers through southwest Manitoba north/northeastwards into the Interlake. The lack of any real boundaries should keep things sunny and dry in the Red River Valley. There will likely be a some afternoon clouds, but it will remain mainly sunny.
A clear night under the ridge will mean that things do cool off a bit; expect an overnight low near 13°C through the Red River Valley.
The RDPS is forecasting temperatures in the upper 20’s on Thursday afternoon.
Thursday will be another sunny, warm day with a high in the upper 20’s and light winds. The primary difference will be a weak cold front that edges westwards towards the Interlake and Red River Valley. Little activity is expected with it, although by late in the afternoon there will be a slight chance for some isolated showers through the valley. There will be no threat of severe weather. Like Wednesday, it should be a mainly sunny day with just some scattered afternoon cloud.
Temperatures will drop down to the low-to-mid teens on Thursday night.
On Friday, a low pressure system tracking through Northern Manitoba pulls warmer air eastwards across the Prairies. Temperatures aloft will rise through the day and although our daytime high will be in line with the prior days, the warmer air will show itself on Friday night when overnight lows are some 3–5°C warmer than the past few nights. It looks like another pleasant day with highs in the upper 20’s, light winds and ample sunshine.
The Weekend
Overall the weekend looks beautiful. Temperatures will stay in the upper 20’s through the weekend with just a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms on Saturday. Winds will remain light. Summer continues!
Unsettled weather will mark the start of the last weekend of July, but conditions will improve for a rather pleasant end and persist into a fairly dry and seasonal start to next week.
Friday: Thunderstorms Possible
Friday
25°C / 15°C
Chance of showers or thunderstorms
Today is off to a cloudy start with a few showers likely through the Red River Valley[1] as the remnants of the overnight activity push off to our east. Skies will remain mostly cloudy until the cold front that brought copious amounts of severe weather to Saskatchewan yesterday pushes through the Red River Valley early this afternoon.
As that cold front moves eastwards, it’s likely that more thunderstorms will fire up along it. Dewpoints in the upper teens will combine with daytime highs in the mid–20’s to produce MUCAPE values as high as 2000J/kg ahead of the front. Shear will be marginal with only around 25–30kt of surface-to–500mb bulk shear and the vertical wind profile isn’t particularly favourable for severe weather. The cold front will be enough of a trigger, although it will be weaker than yesterday and not offer nearly as much forcing as it did then.
As a result, thunderstorms will likely fire up somewhere in the central or eastern Red River Valley and push into the Whiteshell and far SE Manitoba this afternoon. At this point it doesn’t look like there will be an organized severe weather threat, but we’ll be taking a look a little later this morning to assess whether or not the severe threat needs upgrading.
The HRRR forecast shows a line of showers and thunderstorms pushing eastwards along the cold front this morning.
Other than the storms, the day will be pleasant. Before the cold front passes the Red River Valley will be under a relatively light southerly or southeasterly wind. It will be fairly humid and temperatures in the low 20’s until the passage of the front, after which westerly winds at 30–40km/h bring in much drier air. The afternoon sunshine should help our daytime high climb to around 25°C.
Temperatures will drop to around 14°C under clear skies and light winds tonight.
Showery Saturday
Saturday
24°C / 13°C
Mainly cloudy with widespread showers
Tomorrow will be the least pleasant day of the next few. A strong upper-level low will slide across Southern Manitoba through the day, producing widespread showers underneath it. There may be a few isolated thunderstorms, but for the most part most areas in Southern Manitoba will be seeing a fairly wet day. Winds will generally be 20–30km/h through much of the day, shifting from southwesterly or westerly to northerly through the day and overnight.
Skies will begin to clear overnight as the temperature drops to around 13°C.
Sunny Sunday
Sunday
24°C / 13°C
Mainly sunny
Sunday will likely start off with some low cloud trapped in the boundary layer making for mixed to mostly cloudy skies. As the temperature rises through the morning, the clouds will gradually break up leading to a mainly sunny afternoon with some scattered clouds. Highs will be around the 24–25°C mark and temperatures will drop to around 13°C once again on Sunday night.
This pleasant weather will continue through the first half of next week. Another strong ridge is forecast to build into BC/Alberta, which will keep temperatures seasonal[2] and the weather dry.
Full discretion: I’m writing this on Thursday evening, and still unsure on how much of Thursday night’s convective activity will survive to the Red River Valley. ↩
Seasonal highs in Winnipeg right now are around 26°C. Seasonal lows are around 13°C. ↩
